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2015 Best Picture predictions!

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Up had the old rules to help it.

I doubt District 9 or The Blind Side would have finished ahead of it. So it probably would have just skid by. (500) Days of Summer and Moon are the only other two films from that year I could have seen getting a nod over Up. 

 

Up would get the 8th/9th slot, just barely.

 

TS3 would still get in, too, at the 8th/9th slot. 

 

If the Oscar bait is weak enough, and IO is beloved enough (really would have been helped by a November Oscar season release date), I could see IO getting the 'innovative original blockbuster' nod. 

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I'm still worried about The Good Dinosaur. In an ideal situation, both are amazing and make it in, but I wonder if Pixar might downplay the weaker film's campaign in order to assure a slot.

What if Inside Out IS the weaker film :ph34r:

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Yeah I'm not really sure if Inside Out is such a lock. Up and Toy Story 3 got in but they were weak years (especially 2009) and they didn't have the 5% rule then; they could also be going back to 5 nominees. It's a really good movie but it's very cute and kiddy.

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I doubt District 9 or The Blind Side would have finished ahead of it. So it probably would have just skid by. (500) Days of Summer and Moon are the only other two films from that year I could have seen getting a nod over Up. 

 

Up would get the 8th/9th slot, just barely.

 

TS3 would still get in, too, at the 8th/9th slot. 

 

If the Oscar bait is weak enough, and IO is beloved enough (really would have been helped by a November Oscar season release date), I could see IO getting the 'innovative original blockbuster' nod. 

 

I don't know, D9 was a much better film than Up and was more politically relevant and we all know the Academy loves that.

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Yeah I'm not really sure if Inside Out is such a lock. Up and Toy Story 3 got in but they were weak years (especially 2009) and they didn't have the 5% rule then; they could also be going back to 5 nominees. It's a really good movie but it's very cute and kiddy.

Sadly, I agree... this and Fury Road won't make. I'll be sad when The Danish Girl, Joy and The Revenant are the inevitable Oscar frontrunners  :( at least Inside Out and Fury Road appear to be daring and inventive. 

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The Potential Heavyweights (On Paper):
"Bridge of Spies" (Disney)
"The Danish Girl" (Focus)
"Demolition" (Fox Searchlight)
"The Hateful Eight" (The Weinstein Company)
"Genius" (Lionsgate)
"Joy" (20th Century Fox)
"The Revenant" (20th Century Fox)
"Steve Jobs" (Universal)
"Suffragette" (Focus)
"Trumbo" (Bleecker Street)

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The Potential Heavyweights (On Paper):"Bridge of Spies" (Disney)"The Danish Girl" (Focus)"Demolition" (Fox Searchlight)"The Hateful Eight" (The Weinstein Company)"Genius" (Lionsgate)"Joy" (20th Century Fox)"The Revenant" (20th Century Fox)"Steve Jobs" (Universal)"Suffragette" (Focus)"Trumbo" (Bleecker Street)

Agree to Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs and Hateful Eight, but others don't make sense here.

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Agree to Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs and Hateful Eight, but others don't make sense here

 

revenant made by birdman director, with dicaprio as lead and hardy as support. its a top contender.

 

neither inside out or mad max fury road will get noms. those arent oscar material.

Edited by Halba
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revenant made by birdman director, with dicaprio as lead and hardy as support. its a top contender.

 

neither inside out or mad max fury road will get noms. those arent oscar material.

And how sad is that... you have to be a specific kind of film in order to be 'Oscar material'. That jerk Innaritu is a shoe-in, same with O'Russell and Tarantino.

 

The Revenant won't win due to Birdman last year, but I think Tom Hardy will get Supporting Actor. DiCaprio ignored for Redmayne. Inarritu won't get BD twice in a row either. I think Tarantino or O'Russell will get it. 

 

Can't forget another by-the-numbers Oscar baity drama by Tom Hooper. In the year of Caitlyn Jenner, I think Redmayne wins 2 years in a row so the Oscars can brag about how 'progressive' they are - even if there's 2 or 3 better lead performances this year.

 

Another vanilla Oscar bait drama by the Spielberg/Tom Hanks combo who used to do brilliant blockbusters (Raiders, E.T., Jaws, JP) alongside brilliant dramas (Close Encounters, Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan).

 

This is why the Oscars' legitimacy has gone down the toilet... far too many great films that actually found an audience have been overlooked for 'typical' Oscar bait. And when they do nominate blockbusters, they're almost always bland (Blind Side, American Sniper, The Help, Avatar, etc) 

 

Inside Out and Fury Road are easily more inventive than the standard Oscar fare; this year or most years... but you're right. They likely won't be nominated. Well, Mad Max should get 5-6 technical nods and possibly a nod for Theron if the Actress category is bad this year, and IO should get BAF, possibly Sound, Screenplay and Score. 

Edited by mahnamahna
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Inside Out and Fury Road are easily more inventive than the standard Oscar fare; this year or most years... but you're right. They likely won't be nominated. Well, Mad Max should get 5-6 technical nods and possibly a nod for Theron if the Actress category is bad this year, and IO should get BAF, possibly Sound, Screenplay and Score. 

agree with above post. no nominations at all for BP. inside out belongs in the animated film category, and fury road in the technical categories

 

will wait for the oscar season in a few months. its going to be a good standard again.

Edited by Halba
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agree with above post. no nominations at all for BP. inside out belongs in the animated film category, and fury road in the technical categories

 

will wait for the oscar season in a few months. its going to be a good standard again.

IO doesn't 'belong' in the animated category. Same for Mad Max in the 'technical' categories. The Oscar voters simply won't admit that a few blockbusters or animated films every year (IO/Fury Road, GotG/LEGO/Princess Kaguya, Wind Rises, Avengers/Skyfall, Deathly Hallows 2/Rango, HTTYD, Star Trek, TDK/WALL-E/Iron Man, Enchanted/Bourne Ultimatum/Ratatouille, Howl's Moving Castle/Were-Rabbit, Incredibles/Azkaban/Spider-Man 2, Finding Nemo/POTC 1, Spirited Away/Shrek 1, etc), can be more inspired and higher-quality than their mediocre "based on a true story/war drama/ritzy musical" tripe they nominate every year. Small-scale independent films and blockbusters can both be great without hurting the other. 

 

IO and Fury Road missing BP nominations just shows how irrelevant the Oscars are becoming. 

Edited by mahnamahna
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