Jump to content

Impact

2015 Best Picture predictions!

Recommended Posts



An animated movie won't be the front runner no matter how good it is

For now.

 

When the vast majority of Oscar voters are 1990-2010 kids, I think a serious, well-done animated film like Grave of the Fireflies could do it. But that's 25-35 years away. I wouldn't say 'never'. LOTR was the first fantasy film and that took less than 80 yrs. 

 

I'd definitely say an animated film will win BP in the next 100 years. Same goes for sci-fi... and foreign... and comedy (not the 'soft chuckle' Woody Allen variety, but the Will Ferrell/Seth Rogen/Monty Python/Mel Brooks kind).

 

Think about how many films could have won BP if the majority of voters weren't elderly men. 

 

2013: Gravity 

2012: Life of Pi or Zero Dark Thirty

2010: Social Network or Inception 

2009: Inglorious, D9 or Up

2008: WALL-E or TDK

2006: Borat 

2005: Wallace and Gromit, Howl's Moving Castle (2005 was pretty awful... both of those deserved BP over Crash) 

2004: Eternal Sunshine, Incredibles, Spider-Man 2, Fahrenheit 9/11, Mean Girls

2003: Finding Nemo, Kill Bill Vol. 1, Oldboy 

2002: Minority Report, Rabbit-Proof Fence 

2001: Shrek, Spirited Away, Mulholland Drive

2000: Amores Perros, Requiem for a Dream 

1999: Fight Club, Toy Story 2, The Matrix

 

All of which could have done far better at the Oscars if the voters weren't locked into a certain mentality (only competently-made conventional biopics, ritzy musicals, and 'comedies' that are really depressing deserve the big one). 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





For now.

 

When the vast majority of Oscar voters are 1990-2010 kids, I think a serious, well-done animated film like Grave of the Fireflies could do it. But that's 25-35 years away. I wouldn't say 'never'. LOTR was the first fantasy film and that took less than 80 yrs. 

 

I'd definitely say an animated film will win BP in the next 100 years. Same goes for sci-fi... and foreign... and comedy (not the 'soft chuckle' Woody Allen variety, but the Will Ferrell/Seth Rogen/Monty Python/Mel Brooks kind).

 

Think about how many films could have won BP if the majority of voters weren't elderly men. 

 

2013: Gravity 

2012: Life of Pi or Zero Dark Thirty

2010: Social Network or Inception 

2009: Inglorious, D9 or Up

2008: WALL-E or TDK

2006: Borat 

2005: Wallace and Gromit, Howl's Moving Castle (2005 was pretty awful... both of those deserved BP over Crash) 

2004: Eternal Sunshine, Incredibles, Spider-Man 2, Fahrenheit 9/11, Mean Girls

2003: Finding Nemo, Kill Bill Vol. 1, Oldboy 

2002: Minority Report, Rabbit-Proof Fence 

2001: Shrek, Spirited Away, Mulholland Drive

2000: Amores Perros, Requiem for a Dream 

1999: Fight Club, Toy Story 2, The Matrix

 

All of which could have done far better at the Oscars if the voters weren't locked into a certain mentality (only competently-made conventional biopics, ritzy musicals, and 'comedies' that are really depressing deserve the big one).

Munich should have won in 2005.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could make an argument for WALL-E being the best of '08, but apart from that never ever.

 

Beauty and the Beast should have won BP in 91 imo, Lion King, well I would have chose it over Forrest Gump.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Going by IMDB, which seems to be the best representation of the "mainstream" that we have:

 

1999: Fight Club

2000: Gladiator

2001: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

2002: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2004: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

2005: Batman Begins

2006: The Departed

2007: No Country for Old Men

2008: The Dark Knight

2009: Avatar

2010: Inception

2011: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

2012: The Dark Knight Rises

2013: The Wolf of Wall Street

 

I'm sure you'll find plenty to argue with, but there are no animated movies to be found among that list. Even among the general populace they're still seen as generally an "also ran". They still can't bring themselves to ever say they're the best films of the year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Going by IMDB, which seems to be the best representation of the "mainstream" that we have:

 

1999: Fight Club

2000: Gladiator

2001: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

2002: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2004: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

2005: Batman Begins

2006: The Departed

2007: No Country for Old Men

2008: The Dark Knight

2009: Avatar

2010: Inception

2011: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

2012: The Dark Knight Rises

2013: The Wolf of Wall Street

 

I'm sure you'll find plenty to argue with, but there are no animated movies to be found among that list. Even among the general populace they're still seen as generally an "also ran". They still can't bring themselves to ever say they're the best films of the year.

Again, that includes a lot of older adults voting. Young people aren't going to hang out on IMDB that much.. And Avatar may as well be animated  :P

 

Grave of the Fireflies should have won BP in 1988. All of the live-action fare that year pales in comparison - and the runner-up is of course... Roger Rabbit  ;) Rain Man, Missisippi Burning, Die Hard, Fish Called Wanda and Working Girl are solid, but definitely not BP-worthy. 

 

I did say 100 years, so if it happens by 2114, I was right. I'm not expecting an animated film to win anytime soon, unless it's an extremely bleak, PG-13/R rated one. And even then, 15 years at the earliest.

 

Animation is becoming more and more mainstream with adults. In 25 years, Americans may view animation the same way the Japanese do - as a serious art form. 

I could make an argument for WALL-E being the best of '08, but apart from that never ever.

Again, it's not smart to say 'never ever' about anything. I doubt anyone thought a fantasy film would ever win BP (LOTR), or that a sci-fi would come close (E.T., Avatar, Star Wars, Gravity very likely were the runner-ups for BP their respective years. Possibly third).

 

Is it really that ridiculous to think an animated film will win at some point in the next century? 

 

It took less than 100 yrs for a fantasy epic to win. It could potentially take less than 100 yrs for a smaller-scale sci-fi to win. Is less than 200 years really that ridiculous of a sentiment? 

 

Spirited Away was better than most of 2001's offerings except Mullholland Drive and possibly the first LOTR. 

 

Grave of the Fireflies completely obliterates all of 1988. Mississippi Burning?  :D Rain Man?  :lol: Die Hard or Accidental Tourist? Fish Called Wanda? They're all solid movies, but definitely not even close to that Studio Ghibli masterpiece. 1988 was solid, but Grave is in a class of its own. 

 

Princess Monokoke is better than 1997's output. I could see L.A. Confidential above it, but Full Monty? Titanic? As Good As it Gets? Ugh lol 

 

I'd also say Snow White definitely deserved BP over Emile Zola. It's timeless and innovated for the film industry in a way a WB-produced by-the-numbers biopic simply couldn't. It started an animation empire that still stands to this day.

 

Fantasia winning in 1940 wouldn't seem odd to me, although Grapes of Wrath probably deserves it more. 

 

B&TB could have won 1991 without me getting upset. Although I'm glad it didn't, since there'd be so many on here treating it like complete overrated garbage if it did.

 

Lion King and Toy Story 1... same thing. They weren't what should have won that year (probably Shawshank and Before Sunrise), but I wouldn't get mad. 

 

Were-Rabbit sincerely deserved BP over Crash. Then again, so did Wedding Crashers and 40 Year Old Virgin  :lol:

 

I do agree that it'll take a while, but I'm giving the Academy until 2115 lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Still, considering the number of bigwig director prestige movies Inside Out is going up against (not to mention another Pixar film), saying it's the front runner is a full-on heart thought.

Edited by tribefan695
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Grave of the fireflies is a bad movie.

 Could say the same about Fish Called Wanda, Die Hard, Accidential Tourist, Mississippi Burning or anything from 1988 then. All vastly overrated. If Grave is bad, then all of 1988 was bad IMO  ;) although Roger Rabbit would still be good. 

 

What's 'bad' about it? Especially compared to stuff like Rain Man, Driving Miss Daisy, The Last Emperor, etc. 

Edited by mahnamahna
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Going by IMDB, which seems to be the best representation of the "mainstream" that we have:

 

1999: Fight Club

2000: Gladiator

2001: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

2002: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2004: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

2005: Batman Begins

2006: The Departed

2007: No Country for Old Men

2008: The Dark Knight

2009: Avatar

2010: Inception

2011: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

2012: The Dark Knight Rises

2013: The Wolf of Wall Street

 

I'm sure you'll find plenty to argue with, but there are no animated movies to be found among that list. Even among the general populace they're still seen as generally an "also ran". They still can't bring themselves to ever say they're the best films of the year.

 

What if you go by IMDB UP would have won over avater... Avatar only scores 7.9 rating while up has a 8.3 rating. So that would be an animation win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Going by IMDB, which seems to be the best representation of the "mainstream" that we have:   1999: Fight Club 2000: Gladiator 2001: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 2002: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 2003: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 2004: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 2005: Batman Begins 2006: The Departed 2007: No Country for Old Men 2008: The Dark Knight 2009: Avatar 2010: Inception 2011: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 2012: The Dark Knight Rises 2013: The Wolf of Wall Street   I'm sure you'll find plenty to argue with, but there are no animated movies to be found among that list. Even among the general populace they're still seen as generally an "also ran". They still can't bring themselves to ever say they're the best films of the year.   What if you go by IMDB UP would have won over avater... Avatar only scores 7.9 rating while up has a 8.3 rating. So that would be an animation win.
I'm going by a weighted ranking where I multiply the average score by the number of votes. Avatar's score is lower but it's much more popular overall, and it has more 10 votes than any other 2009 film
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



We will not have an animated feature succeed in capturing the coveted "Best Picture" Oscar until we have something that breaks ground, ends the stigma that animated features are only for a younger demographic, and that they mustn't be taken too seriously.  One of the major hurdles that the Oscar voting committee has to leap through is the mentality that animated features are not "good enough."  I loathe to say it in an environment where acceptance and moving forward is ideal but, we need an Oscar voting committee that possesses an open mind and do not strictly base their opinions on amateurish labels.  Pixar is the only animation studio that has ever come close to being considered a front-runner for Best Picture and even then, they weren't taken seriously.  Beauty and the Beast was, in essence, a quintessential beast that had everything going in for it but failed to catch its prey.  Inside Out is a masterpiece but it'll be lucky to even get a nomination because the Oscars aren't there yet and Inside Out's chances of winning are slim to non-existent, EVEN if it does get nominated which I surely hope it does.  To reiterate, we need a groundbreaking animated feature, possesses characteristics and qualities that will enrapture it's audience, receives positive mass media coverage, get's released during Oscar bait month, and an Oscar voting committee that is open to art. 

Edited by CelestialFairyIX
Link to comment
Share on other sites



There was a thread about this subject where I made a whole list of points of how an animated movie would win best picture. basically the short version of what I said; more things would need to go right for this hypothetical movie than any movie in the history of movies.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



The critical and financial response for Inside Out has me thinking it has a pretty decent shot at a nod. It sure as hell deserves one in my book.

Based on the trailers and talent, Revenant, Joy and Bridge of Spies all seem fairly solid bets. Let's throw Danish Girl, Carol and Hateful Eight in there too. Personally, I'm not on the Steve Jobs train yet in terms of Picture. Screenplay and Actor nods? Sure. I know I'm not saying anything new here but I'm looking forward to the season starting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.