bobholly39 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Hello. 1st time poster here. Couple of things. 1. I don't understand why everyone just assumed Avengers 2 *had* to beat the opening weekend record. Why? If you guys remember, in 2012, no one really expected Avengers to beat the record that year...and even when it did, all anyone could talk about was "yeah but in 2 months when Dark Knight Rises comes out it'll easily take it back". And it fell short. I learned from then that banking on opening weekend records is always tricky. Everyone thought the biggest movie that year would be Dark Knight Rises - you can't just assume things like that in my opinion. 2. As much as it irks me that everyone just assumed Avengers 2 would beat opening weekend record - why is everyone similarly so sure it has fallen short? Thursday night beat Avenger's 1 thursday haul. Friday beats friday. Pre-sale tickets beat pre-sale tickets of Avangers 1. In every aspect, Avengers 2 is ahead. It did fall significantly on Saturday, but why can't it rebound on Sunday? The Boxing match was ah huge draw apparently - whose to say sunday business doesn't pick up as a counter? Just food for thought. I still think there's a chance for opening weekend record 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 What I don't understand: 2015 has been a monster so far, AOU, Fast 7, Sniper's $350 mil, like 7 $50M OW's, yet, we're not even $200 million ahead of 2014... What even. Bigger individual movies don't compare to the strength of the overall slate. For example, when putting together the BSG responses for last year, there were no huge movies but a bunch of 200-250M possible performers. This year, there are either really big 250M+ movies, or below 150M (predictions, not actuals). A healthier release slate with movies that appeal to every audience can still make a lot of money when combined together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 (edited) Exactly. People said the same about SM2 even. SM2 only finished 30mil behind the first film, this will finish upwards of 150mil behind the first Avengers. Fatigue probably won't show much with the smaller grossing films, but for Avengers and maybe Iron Man, i wouldn't be surprised if the grosses start falling in the future films. Edited May 3, 2015 by stuart360 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted May 3, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted May 3, 2015 What I don't understand: 2015 has been a monster so far, AOU, Fast 7, Sniper's $350 mil, like 7 $50M OW's, yet, we're not even $200 million ahead of 2014... What even. 2014 had a weak summer but the first quarter was strong. I believe Sniper technically counts as 2014 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 2. As much as it irks me that everyone just assumed Avengers 2 would beat opening weekend record - why is everyone similarly so sure it has fallen short? Thursday night beat Avenger's 1 thursday haul. Friday beats friday. Pre-sale tickets beat pre-sale tickets of Avangers 1. In every aspect, Avengers 2 is ahead. It did fall significantly on Saturday, but why can't it rebound on Sunday? The Boxing match was ah huge draw apparently - whose to say sunday business doesn't pick up as a counter? Just food for thought. I still think there's a chance for opening weekend record It would need a $65.7m Sunday. Zero chance of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Vision Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 The first Avengers was the first ever big superhero team up film (if you don't include X-men) and it was more high demand. AOU doing less is really not that surprising. Plus OS markets are bigger anyways so it should more than make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superduperm Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Hello. 1st time poster here. Couple of things. 1. I don't understand why everyone just assumed Avengers 2 *had* to beat the opening weekend record. Why? If you guys remember, in 2012, no one really expected Avengers to beat the record that year...and even when it did, all anyone could talk about was "yeah but in 2 months when Dark Knight Rises comes out it'll easily take it back". And it fell short. I learned from then that banking on opening weekend records is always tricky. Everyone thought the biggest movie that year would be Dark Knight Rises - you can't just assume things like that in my opinion. 2. As much as it irks me that everyone just assumed Avengers 2 would beat opening weekend record - why is everyone similarly so sure it has fallen short? Thursday night beat Avenger's 1 thursday haul. Friday beats friday. Pre-sale tickets beat pre-sale tickets of Avangers 1. In every aspect, Avengers 2 is ahead. It did fall significantly on Saturday, but why can't it rebound on Sunday? The Boxing match was ah huge draw apparently - whose to say sunday business doesn't pick up as a counter? Just food for thought. I still think there's a chance for opening weekend record A studio estimate shooting up by $20 million is virtually impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Hello. 1st time poster here. Couple of things. 1. I don't understand why everyone just assumed Avengers 2 *had* to beat the opening weekend record. Why? If you guys remember, in 2012, no one really expected Avengers to beat the record that year...and even when it did, all anyone could talk about was "yeah but in 2 months when Dark Knight Rises comes out it'll easily take it back". And it fell short. I learned from then that banking on opening weekend records is always tricky. Everyone thought the biggest movie that year would be Dark Knight Rises - you can't just assume things like that in my opinion. 2. As much as it irks me that everyone just assumed Avengers 2 would beat opening weekend record - why is everyone similarly so sure it has fallen short? Thursday night beat Avenger's 1 thursday haul. Friday beats friday. Pre-sale tickets beat pre-sale tickets of Avangers 1. In every aspect, Avengers 2 is ahead. It did fall significantly on Saturday, but why can't it rebound on Sunday? The Boxing match was ah huge draw apparently - whose to say sunday business doesn't pick up as a counter? Just food for thought. I still think there's a chance for opening weekend record Welcome here. People seem to say that whenever a film drops. (Before The Two Towers no sequel to a 300M film or even a 250M film increased from the last) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pensivepenguin Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 SM2 only finished 30mil behind the first film, this will finish upwards of 150mil behind the first Avengers. Fatigue probably won't show much with the smaller grossing films, but for Avengers and maybe Iron Man, i wouldn't be surprised if the grosses start falling in the future films. Which, I think, is also another reason why there will be no Iron Man 4 no matter how much money Marvel/Disney threw at RDJ after IM3's performance in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted May 3, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted May 3, 2015 Hello. 1st time poster here. Couple of things. 1. I don't understand why everyone just assumed Avengers 2 *had* to beat the opening weekend record. Why? If you guys remember, in 2012, no one really expected Avengers to beat the record that year...and even when it did, all anyone could talk about was "yeah but in 2 months when Dark Knight Rises comes out it'll easily take it back". And it fell short. I learned from then that banking on opening weekend records is always tricky. Everyone thought the biggest movie that year would be Dark Knight Rises - you can't just assume things like that in my opinion. 2. As much as it irks me that everyone just assumed Avengers 2 would beat opening weekend record - why is everyone similarly so sure it has fallen short? Thursday night beat Avenger's 1 thursday haul. Friday beats friday. Pre-sale tickets beat pre-sale tickets of Avangers 1. In every aspect, Avengers 2 is ahead. It did fall significantly on Saturday, but why can't it rebound on Sunday? The Boxing match was ah huge draw apparently - whose to say sunday business doesn't pick up as a counter? Just food for thought. I still think there's a chance for opening weekend record It didn't have to beat the avengers but people like to see records broken. It excites people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
straggler Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 When you have a huge breakout hit like Avengers you have to expect a drop off. It is just that when the original numbers are so high, it will drop significantly but still do great numbers. If anything IM3 was the film that benefited from the Avenger's effect. The only sequel film that didn't decrease following a huge breakout hit was probably Catching Fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Again second highest opening is not a flop, debacle, disappointment or fatigue Well when estimates come in over $30M less of what it looked Friday night (and $50M of what articles were saying Friday afternoon - some saying 101 OD and 230 weekend), you're allowed to be. Yes we had high expectations, but everyone, including Disney just rose them higher. Who knew Disney would be $30M off? It's fair to call this disappointing if you want to. 2014 had a weak summer but the first quarter was strong. I believe Sniper technically counts as 2014 as well. I'm looking at BOM's year to date gross. Sniper's money counts as apart of 2015's $3.479 billion so far. Bigger individual movies don't compare to the strength of the overall slate. For example, when putting together the BSG responses for last year, there were no huge movies but a bunch of 200-250M possible performers. This year, there are either really big 250M+ movies, or below 150M (predictions, not actuals). A healthier release slate with movies that appeal to every audience can still make a lot of money when combined together. I know but still. We've already 2 movies over $300m, Cinderella nearing $200, Home, Spongebob, and Kingsman breakouts, 50 Shades did good enough, etc. I know 2014 had a good Spring, but it still wasn't as exciting as this year's take off. 2015 will pull ahead of 2014 even farther, but you still have to admit, without diving into the numbers, on the surface its crazy how close they still are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 People look at things differently. We have the reasonable analyst and the Marvel loonies who are trying to save face now twisting the conversation. The second biggest OW is a great achievement, nobody is disputing that, but that doesn't mean that we can not call it disappointing from a different perspective. If you look at the bigger picture and Ultron's projected run, we're talking about minimum 150m decrease from TA. Yes, TA broke out, but still 150m is an enermous number, so that validates the title disappointing, especially when Ultron loses to Fast 7 both OS and WW, that was unexpected as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 When you have a huge breakout hit like Avengers you have to expect a drop off. It is just that when the original numbers are so high, it will drop significantly but still do great numbers. If anything IM3 was the film that benefited from the Avenger's effect. The only sequel film that didn't decrease following a huge breakout hit was probably Catching Fire. Exactly, don't forget about Two Towers/ROTK as well as the Pirate films though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted May 3, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted May 3, 2015 Well when estimates come in over $30M less of what it looked Friday night (and $50M of what articles were saying Friday afternoon - some saying 101 OD and 230 weekend), you're allowed to be. Yes we had high expectations, but everyone, including Disney just rose them higher. Who knew Disney would be $30M off? It's fair to call this disappointing if you want to. I'm looking at BOM's year to date gross. Sniper's money counts as apart of 2015's $3.479 billion so far. I know but still. We've already 2 movies over $300m, Cinderella nearing $200, Home, Spongebob, and Kingsman breakouts, 50 Shades did good enough, etc. I know 2014 had a good Spring, but it still wasn't as exciting as this year's take off. 2015 will pull ahead of 2014 even farther, but you still have to admit, without diving into the numbers, on the surface its crazy how close they still are. 2015 might be more exciting but we've had like so many flops. 2014 was more dependable. Boring but strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Hello. 1st time poster here. Couple of things. 1. I don't understand why everyone just assumed Avengers 2 *had* to beat the opening weekend record. Why? If you guys remember, in 2012, no one really expected Avengers to beat the record that year...and even when it did, all anyone could talk about was "yeah but in 2 months when Dark Knight Rises comes out it'll easily take it back". And it fell short. I learned from then that banking on opening weekend records is always tricky. Everyone thought the biggest movie that year would be Dark Knight Rises - you can't just assume things like that in my opinion. 2. As much as it irks me that everyone just assumed Avengers 2 would beat opening weekend record - why is everyone similarly so sure it has fallen short? Thursday night beat Avenger's 1 thursday haul. Friday beats friday. Pre-sale tickets beat pre-sale tickets of Avangers 1. In every aspect, Avengers 2 is ahead. It did fall significantly on Saturday, but why can't it rebound on Sunday? The Boxing match was ah huge draw apparently - whose to say sunday business doesn't pick up as a counter? Just food for thought. I still think there's a chance for opening weekend record 1. Precedence. Well received 4-quadrant appeal films that break records tend to have their goodwill/volume appeal carry over to their sequel's opening. We assume things like this because history suggests that more often than not, this is what happens. TDKR isn't the best comparison because of the shooting, which ended up deflating not only its gross but the entire domestic BO for a few months. Prior to that there were plenty of indications that it would set a new OW attendance record. Comparing directly to Avengers isn't 1:1, given that it had a hefty 3D presence while TDKR had none. 2. Thursday night beating Avenger's Thursday haul just suggests that it had more upfront demand - more demand satisfied earlier on means less demand left over for later. Their Fridays were actually not equal, Avengers did ~62M on Friday, this did just under 57M (you can't acknowledge previews and then also lump them in with Friday). Yes, Saturday was affected by the sporting events, but it fell ~12.5M short of Avengers Friday despite the fact that it had 3 years of inflation and the 3D shares actually jumped back up following the previews. It is reasonable at that point to have expected it to drop from Avengers' Saturday, but this was a lot more dramatic than anyone was expecting. That suggests that not only was the fight hampering it, it simply did not have the anywhere near demand that we anticipated. Finally, with regards to Sunday, again the answer is precedence. We know how Sundays perform, the only rare occasion where Sunday even holds up to Saturday is when Monday is a holiday, else Sunday will always see a fall. Sometimes that fall might be soft, in the case of a deflation factor on Saturday (such as the fight/game) or if Saturday business is so excessively large that people who were turned off due to sellouts will "spill over" into Sunday (this happened with the first Avengers and Dark Knight). The first scenario applies here, but at best, we're looking at a softer than average drop. An increase is just extremely unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 I just noticed this-the top 2 films this weekend are age films 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 (edited) Exactly, don't forget about Two Towers/ROTK as well as the Pirate films though. Adj. for inflation LOTR wins also FOTR-TTT still wins. Edited May 3, 2015 by Neo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Adj. for inflation LOTR wins. Yep-as said before pre Two Towers no sequel to a 300M+ (or even 250M+) ever increased. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 I see Captain America 3 being a bit more successful than 230 million with the added characters like Iron Man. Really, they should just drop Captain America from the title and call it Marvel's Civil War the third movie effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
