MONDAY ACTUALS: AGE OF ULTRON - 13.23M (Normal -74% Drop)

[Jessie]

$400m would have happened. TDK's WOM was legendary.

No it wouldn't have, 100m opening and prob 350-380m finish sounds more likely, that's still a massive increase over its predecessor and would suggest Heaths death added around 50% to its total, much like Furious 7

[grim22]

Are people seriously freaking out over a Monday number?

[Harpospoke]

lol @this thread.

 

You guys crack me up.     Hey....I guess it would be boring here without all the agendas.

 

"Superhero movies have plateaued!"

"Nolan!"

"Batman!"

[Lordmandeep]

Seeing 316 million by Sunday.

I saw sub 12 million for today.

Think like im3 will be huge on weekends only.

[Jessie]

Well, maybe $450M was generous. Either way, TDKR hit $460M so I think it would've at least hit $400M. People loved that one, man.

TDKR hit 449m because people liked the predecessor. Heaths death made people watch TDK and TDK's quality made people turn up for the sequel which was well received and still came no way near TDK's gross. Even without the shootings it will have come very short. 400m for TDK wasn't ever happening

Edited May 5, 2015 by jessie

[stripe]

Lol you and all the pessimists are ridiculous

This won't drop below $80 million this weekend. Especially after Mayweather deflated its last Sat. And Hot Pursuit being almost nothing in terms of competition

14 million ($217 million)

11.2 million ($229 million)

11.7 million ($241 million)

29 million ($270 million)

36 million ($306 million)

27 million ($333 million)

$92 million 2nd weekend

It's still possible for Avengers 2 to rebound. No need to predict a ridiculous 65-70% drop for one of the most family-friendly PG-13 franchises of the 21st century (Marvel).

 

I am not pessimist. I am realist. And I would love to be proven wrong.

 

14M Tuesday is too high, IMHO (IM3 barely increased; Avengers decreased). I see an increase, but over 10% is quite dificult.

11.2M Wednesday would mean a 20% drop. Avengers decreased 23%; IM3 decreased 28%.

11.7M Thursday would mean Avengers2 is the first Summer huge starter tentpole to increase over Wednesday.

 

Three consecutive gorgeous days that would defy historical data. I would love this to happen but I wouldn't ever bet for it. With normal numbers, A2 will gross around 9M this Thursday, or even less. The ceil, IMO, is 10M if it delivers good legs through the week.

 

The problem for A2 will not come from new competition. It will come from backlash, number of repeated views, and already burned demand. It is what happens almost always once a huge sequel opens.

 

And the better Saturday will be cancelled with a worse Sunday.

[Lordmandeep]

Dude mad max is heading for edge of tomorrow like response .

Limited box office hugely popular months later.

[redfirebird2008]

No it wouldn't have, 100m opening and prob 350-380m finish sounds more likely, that's still a massive increase over its predecessor and would suggest Heaths death added around 50% to its total, much like Furious 7

 

I disagree. 400+ would have happened. Adding $120-130m to the total is already an enormous amount. His performance added a hell of a lot more. Plus the fact that BB's WOM in and of itself was great too.

[FTF]

No it wouldn't have, 100m opening and prob 350-380m finish sounds more likely, that's still a massive increase over its predecessor and would suggest Heaths death added around 50% to its total, much like Furious 7

From the pulled these #s out of my ass box office guide.

[Jessie]

People who think Ultrons is getting a small drop this weekend due to the fight are going to be in for a shock. This is what people will likely be thinking.

 

"Damn I missed Ultron this weekend due to the fight, lets go next weekend"

 

by next weekend the hype will be gone, WOM will be in full gear

 

"So Ultron tonight?"

 "cant be fucked mate, heard its not that great anyways"

 

78m second weekend

[KATCH-2D2]

And? Everything has advantages or is manipulated to success in one way or another.

It's an unfair advantage because it raised double-standards across the table. People forgave every flaw in the movie because according to them 'The last scene is soooooo beautiful.. *wipes some tears*".

 

Sorry I know most people don't see it that way but that's how I see it and I'm just being honest.

[Talkie]

So, whose meltdowns did I miss? 

 

This site needs to have virtual Prozac written into its code. Some of you make me .

[Jessie]

I disagree. 400+ would have happened. Adding $120-130m to the total is already an enormous amount. His performance added a hell of a lot more. Plus the fact that BB's WOM in and of itself was great too.

 

Iron man 1 had great WOM, so did Star Trek, how did their sequels do again?

 

At the end of the day, I remember the amount of people going to see this film simply because of all the publicity it was getting surrounding Heaths death. Nothing will ever persuade me that it would have crossed 400m if he were breathing today.

[Jessie]

From the pulled these #s out of my ass box office guide.

Im right more often than any of you lot

[redfirebird2008]

Iron man 1 had great WOM, so did Star Trek, how did their sequels do again?

 

At the end of the day, I remember the amount of people going to see this film simply because of all the publicity it was getting surrounding Heaths death. Nothing will ever persuade me that it would have crossed 400m if he were breathing today.

 

We'll just agree to disagree then. Neither one of those sequels had WOM even close to TDK. Not to mention I would say Begins's box office was hampered by being a reboot more than Star Trek was (ST09 had much better marketing than BB). IM1 had a clean start with no baggage and ended up with a very big total as a result of the great WOM.  

[KATCH-2D2]

People who think Ultrons is getting a small drop this weekend due to the fight are going to be in for a shock. This is what people will likely be thinking.

 

"Damn I missed Ultron this weekend due to the fight, lets go next weekend"

 

by next weekend the hype will be gone, WOM will be in full gear

 

"So Ultron tonight?"

 "cant be fucked mate, heard its not that great anyways"

 

78m second weekend

I'm afraid you're right. It's like that in the real world. Movies rely on hype and WOM too much for my liking. I miss the good old days when I and my friends went to the cinema every weekend just to see a movie, any movies.

[BadAtGender]

I think it's set up to be the next Pirates 2 in terms of increase.  However, everything I've heard from Gunn leads me to believe that he doesn't want to just make the same movie again.  He isn't afraid to change shit up, which is great, but could have a negative impact on the gross.  Which really sucks.    

 

I think Whedon felt the same way and didn't go the easy route of just copy and pasting Avengers best bits into the sequel.  It makes for a more interesting movie even if it doesn't all succeed.  

 

That's weird. The more I think about the, the more I realize AoU is almost the same film as Avengers 1. A lot of the same visual tropes, as well.

 

It doesn't go Matrix Revolutions and take those few really popular things and use them excessively, but there's a lot of the same meat.

[John Marston]

Are people seriously freaking out over a Monday number?

People want 500m domestic and this Monday number is not helping

[redfirebird2008]

I'm afraid you're right. It's like that in the real world. Movies rely on hype and WOM too much for my liking. I miss the good old days when I and my friends went to the cinema every weekend just to see a movie, any movies.

 

Movies have always relied on WOM and hype as the two primary ways to make money. Even going back to the days of the movie in my avatar. Universal hype the shit out of their monster movies back then, especially the sequels after earlier films like Dracula and Frankenstein became huge WOM hits.

[KATCH-2D2]

Iron man 1 had great WOM, so did Star Trek, how did their sequels do again?

 

At the end of the day, I remember the amount of people going to see this film simply because of all the publicity it was getting surrounding Heaths death. Nothing will ever persuade me that it would have crossed 400m if he were breathing today.

Totally agree with you on this one. I have some friends at work whose last movie they've seen was TDK because the hype was so big they felt like they had to. None of them watched BB and they didn't bother with TDKR.