Weekend Estimates (4-day): TL 41.7 M | PP II 38.5 M | MM: FR 32.1 M | A:AOU 27.8 M | POLTERGEIST 26.5 M

[Durden]

 

Disney’s “Tomorrowland” is looking to notch a narrow box office victory with an opening of about $45 million during Memorial Day holiday weekend, according to early estimates.

 

The four-day frame could see as many as four other films top the $30 million mark, with the second weekend of “Pitch Perfect 2″ likely leading the rest of the pack with about $38 million, followed by Fox-MGM’s launch of “Poltergeist” around $35 million, the second weekend of Warner Bros.’ “Mad Max: Fury Road” at $33 million, and the fourth weekend of Disney-Marvel’s “Avengers: Age of Ultron” at $30 million.

 

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/tomorrowland-narrow-memorial-day-weekend-win-45-million-1201503853/

[Maxmoser3]

Poltergeist already looks "frontloaded" and all we have is the preview number?

Come on! That's just plain stupid.

It will likely be frontloaded cause it's horror but to say it looks frontloaded based on the preview is ridiculous.

because looking at it's debut let's say it gets 10 million or so on Friday(if that) it makes 24 million or so three-day then 4-day 31 million then takes a nose dive the next two weeks due to a C on cinemascore and Insidious 3

[Blankments]

Pretty sure Tomorrowland will play like a kid's movie with it being the PG-rated movie since Paul Blart and until Inside Out

[grim22]

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/tomorrowland-narrow-memorial-day-weekend-win-45-million-1201503853/

 

So we have the 4 day weekend projections without Friday projections for all the movies. I guess we are done in this thread now.

[La Binoche]

Poltergiest overperforming... 

 

Tracking is often questionable when it comes to horror. 

[jimisawesome]

Guys if we used budget as the template for success for every movie you get into a huge margin of error considering the full cost of many of these projects is never disclosed. I just don't think it's the end all be all, you think Disney doesn't already know they overreached on this one? So having said that the $700k+ preview # seems to be ok, it's not awful considering it's still a school/work day for many today before a long holiday weekend.

 

Sure there is a huge MoE but Budget v Box Office is the only thing that makes sense to judge moves by even if its not perfect.  From the current look of things at 5 PM Eastern time it does not matter if TW cost 150 or 190 or 290 its a failure anyway you look at it.  If it cost 50 million it would be a moderate success to a solid hit.  If it cost 10 million its a huge success. 

[Krissykins]

$11.5m early Friday number for Poltergeist. Beating the $180m budgeted Tomorrowland on opening day by $0.5m.

Sure it'll lose the weekend, but could ger close to its production budget by Monday. Around $31m 4 day with that $11.5m number.

Hope these numbers stick. Horror needs this.

Edited May 22, 2015 by Krissykins

[CJohn]

Waiting for God Rth

[Jandrew]

Disney can make budgets whatever they want because movies to them is like a part time job. Theme parks are thier 9-5 M-F, salary job. As long as the theme parks dont start going under, they have nothing to worry about.

[Ruthie]

If I were a director, I wouldn't care how many people saw the film, I'd just want to make the film I want to make.

That'd be great, as long as you were using your own money. 

[grim22]

Yeah, I think the Sat bump will surprise us.

 

Every movie will most likely have good bumps tomorrow just because of the first holiday in a long time effect combined with a number of school districts going on summer break.

[4815162342]

So we have the 4 day weekend projections without Friday projections for all the movies. I guess we are done in this thread now.

\

[Durden]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Disney's TOMORROWLAND is currently setting the pace in 1st place with $9-$12M today, $40M+ for the 4-day.

[grim22]

 

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Disney's TOMORROWLAND is currently setting the pace in 1st place with $9-$12M today, $40M+ for the 4-day.

 

 

Prince of Persia aka May 28th the movie earned 10.2M on its opening Friday. That should be the worst case for Tomorrowland, especially with years of inflation, IMAX, 3D etc.

[PDC1987]

I am shocked Disney has problems keeping projects on budget.  Also shocked they give a project a stupid budget to begin with.

Why? They've been this way for ages.

[CJohn]

PoP had an OD of 10M and didn't do 40M. Not sure if TL will either.

[CJohn]

Prince of Persia aka May 28th the movie earned 10.2M on its opening Friday. That should be the worst case for Tomorrowland, especially with years of inflation, IMAX, 3D etc.

TL doesn't have 3D.

[grim22]

TL doesn't have 3D.

 

Oh yeah. Scratch that off then. And this is where we realize we are using POP as a baseline for a movie's performance.

[CJohn]

Oh yeah. Scratch that off then. And this is where we realize we are using POP as a baseline for a movie's performance.

It is a Disney mega bomb opening on Memorial Weekend. PoP sounds like the perfect comp 

[4815162342]

 

NEVER FORGET