Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[vc2002]

Who didn't expect AVTR to crack 200m?  Name one reputable pundit (not a fanboy troll after the teaser trailer) who predicted this.

 

Here's your answer.

 

keep trying

[DavidBrennan]

Just one tiny AVTR memory just popped into my head:

 

They aired the AVTR trailer on the NFL pregame show on FOX (which gets huge ratings) and simultaneously on the Dallas Cowboys jumbotron, which was then (and might still be) the largest video screen on Earth. 

 

That was months before its release.  Just a drop in the bucket in the massive marketing push AVTR had that I randomly remembered.

[vc2002]

Just one tiny AVTR memory just popped into my head:

 

They aired the AVTR trailer on the NFL pregame show on FOX (which gets huge ratings) and simultaneously on the Dallas Cowboys jumbotron, which was then (and might still be) the largest video screen on Earth. 

 

That was months before its release.  Just a drop in the bucket in the massive marketing push AVTR had that I randomly remembered.

 

And as a result, it still opened less on the OW than JW did in one day.

 

Keep trying, and should I say keep ignoring.

[DavidBrennan]

And as a result, it still opened less on the OW than JW did in one day.

 

Keep trying, and should I say keep ignoring.

 

lol.  still arguing that AVTR was a small movie.

[kayumanggi]

And as a result, it still opened less on the OW than JW did in one day.

 

Keep trying, and should I say keep ignoring.

 

But, but, it had massive hype! Should have opened with 300 M!

[miketheavenger]

These last couple weekends remind me why I love following box office. You'll never know what's gonna happen. Two movies possibly making 100m on the same weekend!!! Think about that.

[Bastien]

^^been the highest grossing film for almost 3 years!

until next friday ^^

[DeeCee]

Can we go back to the beating kids discussion?

[DavidBrennan]

But, but, it had massive hype! Should have opened with 300 M!

 

"AVTR was a small movie that caught everybody by surprise!" 

 

Who?

 

".....AVTR was a lil indie movie, and its battle with Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 was the fiercest box office showdown of all time!"

[Ozymandias]

You guys do know that December openings are always smaller than summer openings right?

JW opening in December with the same marketing and awareness probably wouldn't have made much more than 100m. Hell I wouldn't be surprised sw7 makes "only" 125m ow later this year

[vc2002]

lol.  still arguing that AVTR was a small movie.

 

No, no one is arguing that Avatar was a small movie. (It was expected to be a small movie by a lot tho, comparing to its astonishing result). The arguement is whether Avatar, in your words, "had virtually no competition", and whether it's right to judge a film's boxoffice success by discounting the OW and only looking at the competition afterwards.

[DavidBrennan]

I don't follow pop politics anymore.  In 2009, though, I can tell you DrudgeReport was the #1 news site hub.  It was so popular a simple Drudge linkthough could crash servers at local newspapers.  Non-stop AVTR throughout December 2009.  I don't ever recall seeing a movie (besides maybe Fahrenheit 911) headlining Drudge.  I was stunned.

 

[DavidBrennan]

No, no one is arguing that Avatar was a small movie. (It was expected to be a small movie by a lot tho, comparing to its astonishing result). The arguement is whether Avatar, in your words, "had virtually no competition", and whether it's right to judge a film's boxoffice success by discounting the OW and only looking at the competition afterwards.

 

You're arguing with yourself.

[KATCH-2D2]

I wish you were on the old BOM forum and followed Avatar all the way. Avatar wasn't expected to break 200m by a lot of users. Even after the OW, the predictions were still conservetive. And then of cause Avatar kept surprising people every wknd and finally did the unthinkable.

 

JW is supposed to be in at least the top 2 of the year after the OW.

 

JW's mega success is a surprising, but you can't compare it to Avatar. Avatar's success is in the league with Titanic in terms of how it surprised the world.

I was referring to the pre-release hype of both movies. JW just became a HUGE deal after the opening day. Before that I remember it's tracking to do 105/250 or something closed to that. JW has to face some tough competitions because other studios didn't think it'd do much beyond tracking.

 

And I'm not comparing JW to Avatar. I've actually been trying to tell people not to. lol.

[James]

What is truly shocking to me is that both SW7 and AoU wont finish first place DOM or WW. I thought SW is the biggest franchise in North America. WTF?

[Dale Cooper]

I was referring to the pre-release hype of both movies. JW just became a HUGE deal after the opening day. Before that I remember it's tracking to do 105/250 or something closed to that. JW has to face some tough competitions because other studios didn't think it'd do much beyond tracking.

 

And I'm not comparing JW to Avatar. I've actually been trying to tell people not to. lol.

And Avatar tracked to open mid 40's a few weeks before its opening if my memory doesn't fail me.

 

As for JW, it was pretty obvious there was a lot of interest for it after those trailers. Anyway, obviously both films did much better than expected.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Dale Cooper

[keysersoze123]

And Avatar tracked to open mid 40's a few weeks before its opening.

 

MTC had Avatar at 72m while RS had it at mid to high 60's in its OW. I dont think RS early tracking has any value at all.

[DavidBrennan]

And Avatar tracked to open mid 40's a few weeks before its opening.

 

Where?

[Ozymandias]

What is truly shocking to me is that both SW7 and AoU wont finish first place DOM or WW. I thought SW is the biggest franchise in North America. WTF?

Sw7 can still easily win the year

[keysersoze123]

Where?

 

Avatar RS tracking number month before release was mid 40's but that was mostly ridiculed. it went up to mid to high 60's in its release week and MTC was at 72m. RS early tracking was always a joke.