Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[Dale Cooper]

MTC had Avatar at 72m while RS had it at mid to high 60's in its OW. I dont think RS early tracking has any value at all.

It obviously isn't very reliable, but at some level it gives an indication of level of awareness and such.

 

[DavidBrennan]

JW's budget was reportedly 150m

AVTR's budget was reportedly 237m (2009 dollars)

[DavidBrennan]

Here's Slate - which was highly critical of AVTR and Cameron all the way until it became a hit - rounding up the estimates on December 10.  They're all between 60 and 80:

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/movies/2009/12/here_come_the_cats_with_human_boobs.html

 

So there's another "Avatar was a small indie movie!" talking point debunked.

[Ozymandias]

JW's budget was reportedly 150m

AVTR's budget was reportedly 237m (2009 dollars)

Lol nobody believes it was only 237m

[wildphantom]

I'm not sure how some are now assuming SW won't win the year? Jurassic's run just makes Star Wars's anticipated arrival even more exciting now. Can you imagine the weekdays for TFA over the Christmas holidays?!

[Ethan Hunt]

I like that Inside Out number

[Ethan Hunt]

Sw7 can still easily win the year

Possible but not likely

[baumer]

LOL Avatar is not going to be touched by this.

I do not think avatar will be passed but I don't see why Titanic is that much of a stretch. This has incredible word of mouth the weekdays are strong and they will be much stronger than the Avengers weekdays. Again I know the top two movies are hard to comprehend but I think this could do it, weekdays are strong and they will be much stronger than the Avengers weekdays. Again I know the top two movies are hard to comprehend but I think this could do it.

Edited June 20, 2015 by baumer

[DavidBrennan]

Lol nobody believes it was only 237m

 

I do.  A lot of the costs attributed to it could, by most accounting practices, be amortized (spread out and attributed to other things).  For instance, many of the people were throwing in the cost of the 3D camera and software development, which added tens of millions of dollars.  But these are never placed on just one movie, because studios know they're going to be used on later movies.  (For instance, if a VFX house writes some new code to make metal reflections more realistic for Transformers, that wouldn't all be placed on the TF budget, because it's going to be used in many subsequent movies.)

 

I would strongly suspect that the cost of developing Weta studios is another one of these expenses that, while due to AVTR, was not exclusively for AVTR, but some reporters heard things like, "They're building their own studio in New Zealand that cost another $50 million." and they didn't grasp it was actually a building that was for permanent use, not just AVTR.

Edited June 20, 2015 by DavidBrennan

[vc2002]

I was referring to the pre-release hype of both movies. JW just became a HUGE deal after the opening day. Before that I remember it's tracking to do 105/250 or something closed to that. JW has to face some tough competitions because other studios didn't think it'd do much beyond tracking.

 

And I'm not comparing JW to Avatar. I've actually been trying to tell people not to. lol.

 

Unlike quality or some other subjective topics, hype is relatively easier to be measured, by the boxoffice result of cause. I think it's safe to say that a 200m OW film gets more hype than one that opens 130m lower than that.

 

In fact, Avatar was expected to flop by quite some media and critics, same thing as what once happened on Titanic. Fox even tried to dump it at some point because they feared it would be a big boxoffice failure like Titanic was once "supposed" to be. Cameron offered to cut his fee like he did on Titanic. I think these are enough to tell how hard it was for Avatar and Cameron to fight againest all the negetivities and pull off an astonishing win.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar_%282009_film%29#Development

[James]

Sw7 can still easily win the year

Can you please give me whatever it is you are smoking?

 

JW's budget was reportedly 150m

AVTR's budget was reportedly 237m (2009 dollars)

 

Lol nobody believes it was only 237m

Cmon, are we really comparing the biggest movie phenomenon in history to JW? The budget could have been 500m and it still would've been MUCH MUCH MUCH  more profitable. It made 2.8b WW. JW will likely make only half of that. Not counting another 400M in home market just DOM. This is just stupid. 

[baumer]

James u suffer from so much hatred that you embarass yourself. with Jurassic world exploding why is it so hard to comprehend at Star Wars could do the same? You hate the Franchise so much that you let it cloud your judgement. Much to learn you still have. I'm obviously not saying Star Wars will easily win the year but it certainly has a legitimate shot. Even you have to be able to see that.

Edited June 20, 2015 by baumer

[kayumanggi]

I still think STAR WARS: TFA will win the year.

[DavidBrennan]

Unlike quality or some other subjective topics, hype is relatively easier to be measured, by the boxoffice result of cause. I think it's safe to say that a 200m OW film gets more hype than one that opens 130m lower than that.

 

In fact, Avatar was expected to flop by quite some media and critics, same thing as what once happened on Titanic. Fox even tried to dump it at some point because they feared it would be a big boxoffice failure like Titanic was once "supposed" to be. Cameron offered to cut his fee like he did on Titanic. I think these are enough to tell how hard it was for Avatar and Cameron to fight againest all the negetivities and pull off an astonishing win.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar_%282009_film%29#Development

 

AVTR had independent investors.  So did JW.  So do most all tentpole movies nowadays.

 

You see all those flashy logos swirling around before movies?  Yeah?  Those are put there by people who pay for the movie.  Do you understand?

 

Now, to be clear, you're claiming that JW had "more hype" than AVTR.  Because contemporaneous media (Slate: "Years of hype". BOM: "Massive amount of hype" indicate you are dead wrong and trying to re-write history in your hilarious quest to make AVTR sound like a small indie movie, we're going go have to ask for some proof of that claim.  Thanks!

[Asyulus]

I still think STAR WARS: TFA will win the year.

Nope.

[Ozymandias]

Can you please give me whatever it is you are smoking?

Cmon, are we really comparing the biggest movie phenomenon in history to JW? The budget could have been 500m and it still would've been MUCH MUCH MUCH more profitable. It made 2.8b WW. JW will likely make only half of that. Not counting another 400M in home market just DOM. This is just stupid.

If you really think sw7 has no chance of making 600m, then I'd like to have whatever you're having

And wtf at the rest, all I was saying is a lot of people don't believe that 237m figure

[Dale Cooper]

AVTR had independent investors.  So did JW.  So do most all tentpole movies nowadays.

 

You see all those flashy logos swirling around before movies?  Yeah?  Those are put there by people who pay for the movie.  Do you understand?

 

Now, to be clear, you're claiming that JW had "more hype" than AVTR.  Because contemporaneous media (Slate: "Years of hype". BOM: "Massive amount of hype" indicate you are dead wrong and trying to re-write history in your hilarious quest to make AVTR sound like a small indie movie, we're going go have to ask for some proof of that claim.  Thanks!

So what you're saying is that because someone is claiming JW had more hype than Avatar, it means Avatar was an indie movie?

 

Lol, years of hype? You don't think JW has had years of hype? Come on, if it had less hype than Avatar it wouldn't have breaken the OW record. Avatar failed to even beat the December record.

[Blackout]

Wow, awesome number for JW. What an amazing run.

[DeeCee]

Why are people being so obtuse?

[DavidBrennan]

So what you're saying is that because someone is claiming JW had more hype than Avatar, it means Avatar was an indie movie?

 

Lol, years of hype? You don't think JW has had years of hype? Come on, if it had less hype than Avatar it wouldn't have breaken the OW record. Avatar failed to even beat the December record.

 

Box office is a measure of the number of people who bought tickets.  Hype is the amount of media and tastemaker attention given to or bought for a movie.

 

I don't know why you believed they were synonyms, but there you go to clear up your poor vocab.