Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[CJohn]

Actuals in about 4 Hours... 

[JennaJ]

What's interesting is that it seems like the movies everyone expects to break records don't do it (Avengers may just be the exception), and the real breakouts are at least somewhat surprising.

 

Based on that, I think SW might not live up to the huge expectations some are pinning on it.

 

But we'll see.

[Jessie]

adjusted 2015:

Shrek2: 94m

TDAT: 89m

JW: around 107m

IO: 91-93m

i think this facts disagree, not to say it was an inflated weekend for memorial day of 2004

You're forgetting 3d, both would have been over 100M

And are we just going to ignore the fact that fathers day gave a boost to this weekends grosses too?

Edited June 22, 2015 by jessie

[Deep Wang]

I think the (mod edit..come on dude...spoilers) death was clearly an homage to the opening death of Jaws. At least that's the first place my mind went to, especially with the camera placement in the water.

I mean, the movie is basically a greatest hits of scenes and bits from other, better movies so it's not surprising.

Shit! I'm so sorry!!

Edited June 22, 2015 by Boner Omega

[Ethan Hunt]

SW ain't gonna pass JW

[redfirebird2008]

Jurassic's really setting the bar high for Star Wars. If Jurassic manages $700M+ DOM, I'm not certain Episode VII wins 2015 DOM.

 

Agreed. Even with something like 675 it's still a huge number and by no means a lock for SW7.

[electric storm]

Jurassic's really setting the bar high for Star Wars. If Jurassic manages $700M+ DOM, I'm not certain Episode VII wins 2015 DOM.

 

And if it still does JW would have to be considered the unluckiest movie of all time. The very idea of a film making close to 700 million domestic and NOT winning the year is laughable unless we're in like 2050 and inflation has reached that level.

[JennaJ]

And if it still does JW would have to be considered the unluckiest movie of all time. 

 

Nothing that happens from here on out would mean that.

[CoolioD1]

She was a true hero. Those brats really deserved to be ripped in two and served fresh to Deus Ex Womaneater full frontal. (Hey, I want my subconscious' sociopathic tendancies to be indulged too).

I just look at it like this

her asshole boss is making her look after her asshole nephews, something she probably knows fuck all about. And the second she's on the phone (talking about her upcoming wedding no less, a time when anyone would be extra stressed and maybe not super attentive at work and have their mind on other shit.) those little shits give her the slip and now she's freaking out cos those mini douchebags might have cost her a job when she's planning a probably expensive as fuck wedding, and as soon as she  finds them again she gets attacked by like 18 different dinosaurs. I mean, I've had shitty days at work but yeeesh.

[Empire]

SW ain't gonna pass JW

It very well can. Going to be hard, but it has a chance.

[John Marston]

Sw7 is making less than JW. I must now accept it

[Hatebox]

What's interesting is that it seems like the movies everyone expects to break records don't do it (Avengers may just be the exception), and the real breakouts are at least somewhat surprising.

 

When all's said and done I think TA's run will still be more surprising to me in that there was no precedent for it from earlier Marvel movies. JW's numbers are incredible but you can at least look to the first one to see something similar, not to mention the pre-release online hype being far more palpable than TA's. That's splitting hairs, though. A phenomenon is a phenomenon.

[JennaJ]

It very well can. Going to be hard, but it has a chance.

 

It can, but up to now people have been talking like it's a done deal, when I think it's going to definitely be a challenge.

[redfirebird2008]

I just look at it like this

her asshole boss is making her look after her asshole nephews, something she probably knows fuck all about. And the second she's on the phone (talking about her upcoming wedding no less, a time when anyone would be extra stressed and maybe not super attentive at work and have their mind on other shit.) those little shits give her the slip and now she's freaking out cos those mini douchebags might have cost her a job when she's planning a probably expensive as fuck wedding, and as soon as she  finds them again she gets attacked by like 18 different dinosaurs. I mean, I've had shitty days at work but yeeesh.

 

That's deep man.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

SW ain't gonna pass JW

Before release: JW ain't gonna pass The Avengers.

It may not happen, but to say with any certainty, after the past 2 weekends, is foolish.

[baumer]

I find it hilarious when people speak in absolutes and no I am NOT trying to quote Star Wars but seriously when you speak in absolutes about what Star Wars can and can't do how can you possibly know at this point what Star Wars can and cant gross. Jurassic world Fast and the Furious there's all kinds of movies that have blown people's expectations out of the water even American sniper. Star Wars has a massive fan base and you have the big 3 coming back so at this point you have no idea whether it can pass jurassi or avatar or go beyond or make less. At this point it's fun to speculate but to speak in absolutes is ridiculous.

[vc2002]

When all's said and done I think TA's run will still be more surprising to me in that there was no precedent for it from earlier Marvel movies. JW's numbers are incredible but you can at least look to the first one to see something similar, not to mention the pre-release online hype being far more palpable than TA's. That's splitting hairs, though. A phenomenon is a phenomenon.

 

This leads to a good question which I dont know if it has been discussed on this forum yet: which is a more surprising OW record breaker, TA1 or JW?

[CJohn]

I find it hilarious when people speak in absolutes and no I am NOT trying to quote Star Wars but seriously when you speak in absolutes about what Star Wars can and can't do how can you possibly know at this point what Star Wars can and cant gross. Jurassic world Fast and the Furious there's all kinds of movies that have blown people's expectations out of the water even American sniper. Star Wars has a massive fan base and you have the big 3 coming back so at this point you have no idea whether it can pass jurassi or avatar or go beyond or make less. At this point it's fun to speculate but to speak in absolutes is ridiculous.

SW range is something like 400-850M at this point  

[John Marston]

This leads to a good question which I dont know if it has been discussed on this forum yet: which is a more surprising OW record breaker, TA1 or JW?

JW. Zero people were expecting it. A1 had many predicting 180m which would have been enough for the record at the time

[a2k]

TDK like legs taking JW to 685m seems like a plausible target.

 

TDK had a higher 52.5% drop off the ow but without an inflated Sunday. So JW might not match the 43% drop of TDK in the 3rd weekend considering Sunday to Sunday drop will be bigger and things might balance out.

 

4th weekend onwards TDK's drops were below 40% for a long time - 39%, 37%, 36%,18%, 36%, 25%, 29%, initially with summer weekdays. Seems like a great benchmark for JW. Will be a maddening total. Sparta looks sane in comparison.

Edited June 22, 2015 by a2k