Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[PDC1987]

CRUMBLING GUYS, IT IS CRUMBLING. 

IKR? Its 3rd weekend will be under Avatar's!!! FLOP!!!

[RyneOh1040]

I have to agree with Focus on this one that one of the things I will forever be shocked most by was what I perceived as overall anticipation for JW.  I was ecstatic.  As were most of my movie friends.  But I just didn't feel like it was the movie on everyone's lips or something so many people were counting down to.  I d k, awareness just didn't seem TA level to me.  At all.

 

Of course I'm glad it surprised and continues to do so but I'll be the first to admit that my feelers for it were wayyyyy off, maybe more off than any other movie I've ever followed.

[narniadis]

Just a note on the inflation - tickets debate... why insist on adding additional $$ to the AVERAGE ticket price?? Some of yall act as if the NATO doesn't take 3D and large formats into account when announcing the yearly averages. Do I pay more than the yearly average to see a 3D movie sure, but in our area you can also see an evening show for 5.5o depending on which theater you go to so it evens out.

The instance on downplaying current or past movies because of imax and 3D is a little ridiculous. And again, no movie is created in a vacuum Shrek 2 if released today wouldn't have the same ticket sales of a decade ago.

[CJohn]

IKR? Its 3rd weekend will be under Avatar's!!! FLOP!!!

It is probably gonna be under Avengers's 3rd weekend. And I am actually being serious. I am expecting 50-52M because this weekend was inflated thanks to Father's Day. 

[Focus]

Fuck it. If JW really beats TA second weekend when the actuals come in I'd watch JW tonight.

[PDC1987]

It is probably gonna be under Avengers's 3rd weekend. And I am actually being serious. I am expecting 50-52M because this weekend was inflated thanks to Father's Day. 

I'm thinking $57 million, but a little over $50 million would be fine.

[Bishop54]

Fuck it. If JW really beats TA second weekend when the actuals come in I'd watch JW tonight.

Better go get your ticket now then.

[PDC1987]

Fuck it. If JW really beats TA second weekend when the actuals come in I'd watch JW tonight.

It's a foregone conclusion lol.

[JennaJ]

The TA vs. JW "Hype" debate ends for me with this:

 

A lot of people here predicted TA would break the OW record. Nobody predicted anything close to it for JW.

 

If you go into various "biggest of 2015" debates, JW isn't even on the radar. Nobody saw it coming, not just for the top spot, but for the top 3, even.

 

So I certainly feel that JW was much more shocking and really came out of nowhere. Revisionism can be used to find reasons why it was gonna do well, but the fact remains that no one added those pieces before the preview numbers came out.

[Water Bottle]

The forums seem to be crashing everyday at 10:20pm Pacific time.

 

Actually they are being backed up everyday between midnight and 1AM EDT.

[RyneOh1040]

It is probably gonna be under Avengers's 3rd weekend. And I am actually being serious. I am expecting 50-52M because this weekend was inflated thanks to Father's Day. 

I think you're right.  I wish this thing all the success but I think FD will make its drop look more normal next weekend, opposed to the insane holds it has had so far.  If it somehow hits 60 next weekend then...good grief.  What a monster.

[RyneOh1040]

The TA vs. JW "Hype" debate ends for me with this:

 

A lot of people here predicted TA would break the OW record. Nobody predicted anything close to it for JW.

 

If you go into various "biggest of 2015" debates, JW isn't even on the radar. Nobody saw it coming, not just for the top spot, but for the top 3, even.

 

So I certainly feel that JW was much more shocking and really came out of nowhere. Revisionism can be used to find reasons why it was gonna do well, but the fact remains that no one added those pieces before the preview numbers came out.

This. 

[redfirebird2008]

Just a note on the inflation - tickets debate... why insist on adding additional $$ to the AVERAGE ticket price?? Some of yall act as if the NATO doesn't take 3D and large formats into account when announcing the yearly averages. Do I pay more than the yearly average to see a 3D movie sure, but in our area you can also see an evening show for 5.5o depending on which theater you go to so it evens out.

The instance on downplaying current or past movies because of imax and 3D is a little ridiculous. And again, no movie is created in a vacuum Shrek 2 if released today wouldn't have the same ticket sales of a decade ago.

 

Because it doesn't properly account for those things. Brandon Gray wrote an article at BOM about Avatar when it passed Titanic's total that pretty much destroyed any notion of Avatar selling over 80 million tickets, never mind the 90+ million listed in the chart.

 

Avengers and TDKR in 2012 is a good example. Avengers actual is 623 but its adjusted number with the average price is 611. TDKR actual is 448 and adjusted with the average price it's 458. This is explained by the fact Avengers had 3D and TDKR didn't. But both of them had IMAX/PLF, something JP1 didn't have.

[VGPOP]

A full $31 million ahead of the Avengers. And the movie will get even bigger this week. Far more ahead from the Avengers.

[PDC1987]

Remember fanboys and people who discuss movies and box office online make up a very small percentage of the GA. That's probably why JW, the epitome of a GA film, was under predicted so heavily.

[samsha22]

It is probably gonna be under Avengers's 3rd weekend. And I am actually being serious. I am expecting 50-52M because this weekend was inflated thanks to Father's Day.

Mostly. 4Th weekend will be close though.

[Yandereprime101189]

CRUMBLING GUYS, IT IS CRUMBLING. 

 

CRUMBLING DOWN, CRUMBLING DOWN, CRUMBLING DOWN

[chasmmi]

Speaking of cars, just bought my son this walker....

 

 

The Volkswagon product placement sickens me and lowers my enjoyment of this photo.

 

Next thing you know he'll be walking it past a starbucks or some shit. Grrr >(

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'm thinking just over/under $60M this coming weekend. This juggernaut ain't slowin' down.

[GiantCALBears]

I'm thinking just over/under $60M this coming weekend. This juggernaut ain't slowin' down.

I'll take under on that easily.