Prediction: All upcoming summer movies barring Minions and Antman will flop/disappointt

[marveldcfox]

Done bitches.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

MI5 > Ant Man

Pixels > Ant Man

[Bender]

Add me to the club.

 

Only Minions and Ant-Man could surpass the $200M frontier. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Minimum each movie has to gross to not be considered a disappointment or flop

1. Minions - 300

3. Antman - 180

4. Train wreck - 80

5. Pixels - 150

6. Paper towns - 70

7. Southpaw - 50

8. Mission Impossible - 200

9. Vacation - 80

10. Fantastic Four - 100

11. Ricki and Flash - 40

12. Shaun the sheep - 30

13. The gift - 30

14. Straight from Compton - 70

15. Man from Uncle - 80

16. Agent47 - 40

17. American Ultra - 40

18. Masterminds - 40

If I have missed the rest then that means I am not aware of them

Anything over $150M and $175M DOM for Ant-Man and M:I 5 is certainly fine. Both will do well OS. Anything over $250M DOM for Minions is fine too. This is nonsense.

Edited July 2, 2015 by JohnnyGossamer

[mahnamahna]

This club..

Ted 2 and Terminator looked stupid. That's the only reason they're disappointing so bad. Summer 2013 showed there's room for multiple files to do well at the same time

MI5, Pixels, Compton, Vacation and Trainwreck will at least play to expectations. I'm expecting a few of those to exceed expectations

[The Panda]

Minions will make 300+ (I'm betting it performs like a sequel) and is gunning for over 100m OW

The Gallows is a low budget horror, I doubt it'll soar to any conjuring like heights, but it'll make a profit.

Ant-Man, while I think it'll make around 180m, is only truly disappointing if it goes under 150m given Marvel's track record (their only film under 150 is TIH)

Trainwreck could possibly break out, it doesn't need much more than 70-80m to be a success.

Pixels is looking to be a break out success. We haven't had a comedy break out since PP2 and it has just the creative hook to get butts in seats. 150m is looking like the floor to me, it could reach 200m+

Paper Towns doesn't need much to make a profit and be successful, but it's unlikely it sees TFiOS type numbers but I'd still bet it earns 20m+ OW and has decent legs. (Enough to make a decent profit)

MI5 only needs 150m or so to be a good sized success, what's likely to happen.

Vacation looks like it could pull a Millers/Lets Be Cops style run, given a low budget, that would be a success.

Compton has a great chance of breaking out fairly big (30+ OW, 100+ Dom)

F4 is going to have trouble, but it's still unlikely it does under 100m or so.

[baumer]

I think your definition of flopping and disappointing is really skewed.  For example if Vacation was to make 80 million dollars, that would be a great success.  

 

For the record, I don't think this thread is realistic in the least.

[GiantCALBears]

Why is this thread here & not in speakeasy? We are allowed to post random predictions now that are very subjective? No offense OP but come on. Who says ant man won't disappoint btw?

[goldenstate5]

You gotta be kidding me... JW and IO won't be there in August. Plus factor in that the last three releases (Ted 2, TG and MM) have all been critical disappointments. Mission Impossible, Trainwreck, Vacation, F4 and UNCLE all have possibilities to break out, plus although I think Pixels will have terrible legs, I could see it at least having a stellar OW. And you have Minions as well...

 

The fact is that people are waiting for movies they want to see, otherwise they'll keep flocking to Jurassic World and Inside Out. Minions is a movie that people (unfortunately haha) want to see... hell, I woke up to Fandango offering me free tickets to an advance Wednesday night screening of Trainwreck and they were sold out two hours after they went up in LAS VEGAS. Vegas is not a town full of moviegoers... so that gives you an idea that Trainwreck could very easily break out and do some solid three digits.

 

It's way too earlier and yeah, OUT

Edited July 2, 2015 by goldenstate5

[Mike Wazowski]

only RN is a sequel, and F4 is a reboot, Minions is a spinoff

that said RN and minions have a little burden on their shoulders to do more than it's predecessors, specially RN

Ant-Man is a new movie from a Cinematic Universe that we all know and might do good, and no one knows what to expect from F4 and the rest of the movies.

But one thing is sure there is a lot of movies in the list that can break out big, at the same time besides RN, Minions and Ant-Man (that got a good shot at 200m) all movies might have a healthy run.

For example the early reviews for Trainwreck looks very promising.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Mike Wazowski

[K1stpierre]

It is still hard to put a number on something yourself and decide whether it's "successful" or "flop". I think you have an interesting club, I get where you're going but I think it just doesn't work in the box office forum (because now we're making this an Over club, for like 18 movies lol).

I'm gonna move this to the speakeasy.

[WrathOfHan]

MI5 > Ant Man

Pixels > Ant Man

 

Pixels is not going to make more than Ant-Man.

[Kalo]

Rogue Nation will do good. i can see FF4 hitting $140m, and Pixels should do alright, but yeah Ant-Man and Minions will probably be the most profitable films left to be released this summer. I don't really see the point of this thread, but yeah after two summer films already hit $450m+ there isn't much room for huge breakout hits.

[Ethan Hunt]

Pixels is not going to make more than Ant-Man.

I think they'll be pretty close in final gross

[PDC1987]

I think your definition of flopping and disappointing is really skewed.  For example if Vacation was to make 80 million dollars, that would be a great success.  

 

For the record, I don't think this thread is realistic in the least.

Quite. Only two films dong well in the entire 2nd half of the summer would be a massive and completely unprecedented disaster.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Ant-Man is gonna disappoint.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Pixels is not going to make more than Ant-Man.

 

 

Adam Sandler, leave my childhood alone!!!

[Water Bottle]

While people do have limited money to spend on movies, money is a renewable resource if you are employed-and I'd say the people spending their money to see Inside Out and Jurassic World more than once are employed. I think therefore the logic behind this is kinda flawed.

[mahnamahna]

Pixels is not going to make more than Ant-Man.

Just like IO wasn't going to make more than Minions DOM (very possible at this point)? Or JW wasn't going to make more than Avengers 2? Or Furious 7 wasn't going to top $300 million DOM? Or American Sniper doing more than $100-120 million DOM for its entire run? 

 

2015 has completely defied expectations multiple times already. If there's any year that an Adam Sandler action comedy involving retro arcade games could gross more domestically/internationally than the latest Marvel tentpole, it's 2015. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just like IO wasn't going to make more than Minions DOM (very possible at this point)? Or JW wasn't going to make more than Avengers 2? Or Furious 7 wasn't going to top $300 million DOM? Or American Sniper doing more than $100-120 million DOM for its entire run?

2015 has completely defied expectations multiple times already. If there's any year that an Adam Sandler action comedy involving retro arcade games could gross more domestically/internationally than the latest Marvel tentpole, it's 2015.

Pixels needs strong WOM to pass 200M, no Adam Sandler movie has ever crossed 165M. If a Sandler movie crosses that mark this year, it's probably HT2. His movies simply don't have strong legs. Ant-Man is highly likely to earn 200M at this point and has a chance at surpassing TWS with the way early WOM is. Edited July 3, 2015 by WrathOfHan