redfirebird2008 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Can you put the biggest films of the last 30 years in order, with the tickets and dollar adjustments that you think are correct (not BOM's)? I'm genuinely curious. 1. Titanic - 128 million (MOTHER OF GOD!!!) 2. Jurassic Park - 86.2 million 3. Phantom Menace - 84.8 million 4a. Forrest Gump - 78.5 million 4b. Avatar/Lion King/Shrek 2 - All in the 76-78 million ticket range (and honestly, Lion King/Shrek 2 could be much higher given the kid tickets...we will never know) Then from there it drops off quite a bit. You have movies like SM1, TDK, Avengers, and JP4 in the 70 million ticket area. Return of the Jedi's original run sold just under 81 million tickets and that movie was hyped to the heavens, just to give perspective on how enormous JP1 was with 5 million more tickets. It is pretty incredible that Phantom Menace outsold Jedi by around 4 million tickets. Pretty hard to wrap the mind around that one, but also goes to show TPM was probably the most hyped movie ever. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superduperm Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Minions now at 49.1% on MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Even if that's a more accurate estimate than BOM's, there is something to be said for people being willing to pay a premium to see a movie beyond the inflation adjustment of the original price. That's where the value of ranking the films by adjusted dollars comes from. It is impressive they convinced people to pay more to see it, but it doesn't change the fact of the film's admissions being drastically overestimated in BOM's chart. 95% of the average price for 2009 is based on 2D tickets sold for films like Transformers 2 that had zero 3D boost. Brandon Gray did a very good article at the time Avatar passed Titanic's $600m gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 1. Titanic - 128 million (MOTHER OF GOD!!!) 2. Jurassic Park - 86.2 million 3. Phantom Menace - 84.8 million 4a. Forrest Gump - 78.5 million 4b. Avatar/Lion King/Shrek 2 - All in the 76-78 million ticket range (and honestly, Lion King/Shrek 2 could be much higher given the kid tickets...we will never know) Then from there it drops off quite a bit. You have movies like SM1, TDK, Avengers, and JP4 in the 70 million ticket area. Return of the Jedi's original run sold just under 81 million tickets and that movie was hyped to the heavens, just to give perspective on how enormous JP1 was with 5 million more tickets. It is pretty incredible that Phantom Menace outsold Jedi by around 4 million tickets. Pretty hard to wrap the mind around that one, but also goes to show TPM was probably the most hyped movie ever. I was reading through the Avatar thread on KJ and based on daily comparisons, Avatar crossed 600M roughly at the same time in its run as Titanic crossed 300M. Titanic earned more than half its money after almost 3 months in release. Crazy crazy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 (edited) It is impressive they convinced people to pay more to see it, but it doesn't change the fact of the film's admissions being drastically overestimated in BOM's chart. 95% of the average price for 2009 is based on 2D tickets sold for films like Transformers 2 that had zero 3D boost. Brandon Gray did a very good article at the time Avatar passed Titanic's $600m gross. Is Avatar's ticket estimate based on dailies or is it all on 2009's average price? I imagine it would be a lot more accurate based on 2010's average price. Edited July 9, 2015 by tribefan695 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxofficerules Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 (edited) What are the chances of Terminator making below $10 million this weekend? Edited July 9, 2015 by Boxofficerules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Is Avatar's gross adjusted on a daily basis or is it all based on 2009's average price? I imagine it would be a lot more accurate adjusted to 2010's average price. If I'm not mistaken, it's based on the 2009 price for the entire run even though the movie made most of its money in 2010. That 95m ticket figure is extremely misleading when a film has 80% of its tickets sold in 3D and makes over $100m in IMAX. Brandon Gray's article at the time the film was at $601.1m broke down all the formats in a very reasonable manner and he came up with 60.7 million tickets...average price of $9.90. If you run that $9.90 average price for the rest of the film's run to $750m, you end up with around 75.7 million tickets. I would think the 3D and IMAX ratio dropped some towards the very end of the run (though at the time it passed Titanic, Fox was still reporting a 80% 3D ratio), so that is why I give it a range of 76-78 million tickets to allow for the possibility that its later tickets were at a much higher 2D ratio. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2667&p=.htm And TServo, the reason Avatar felt so much bigger is because the media reports on gross and gross alone. In that respect, JP4 seems to have had a quieter media run than films like TDK or the Avengers due to the fact Universal underestimated it the first two Sundays. It didn't get the same type of record-breaking press as those other films even though it did break records with actuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenedictL11 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 What are the chances of Terminator making below $10 million this weekend? None only because it's coming off a deflated weekend. My prediction is in the low double digits to teens (11-13m range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TServo2049 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 (edited) And TServo, the reason Avatar felt so much bigger is because the media reports on gross and gross alone. In that respect, JP4 seems to have had a quieter media run than films like TDK or the Avengers due to the fact Universal underestimated it the first two Sundays. It didn't get the same type of record-breaking press as those other films even though it did break records with actuals. Makes sense, but I was referring to the fact that I heard more people talking about Avatar than I had Shrek 2. It could have been that Shrek 2 came out when I was in high school, and I didn't hear much from my peers? Or I just was paying even less attention to movies as I was at the time of Avatar? I'm not doubting your estimates, just wondering why if it was bigger, I didn't hear as much conversation about it among regular people during release as Avatar. (For Lion King, I was 6, I can be forgiven. Though there was certainly talk about that among my peers then.) Edited July 9, 2015 by TServo2049 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 (edited) Makes sense, but I was referring to the fact that I heard more people talking about Avatar than I had Shrek 2. It could have been that Shrek 2 came out when I was in high school, and I didn't hear much from my peers? Or I just was paying even less attention to movies as I was at the time of Avatar? I'm not doubting your estimates, just wondering why if it was bigger, I didn't hear as much conversation about it among regular people during release as Avatar. (For Lion King, I was 6, I can be forgiven. Though there was certainly talk about that among my peers then.) I didn't say it was bigger, I put them in the same group. If I had to rank them, I would go Lion King, Avatar, Shrek 2. That's just based on what we know about Avatar's tickets and the BOM ticket numbers for Lion King vs. Shrek 2 (74.6m vs. 71m). Both animated films are underestimated quite a bit on there. I'm guessing you heard more about TDK than Shrek 2 as well, but I don't think there is any way in hell TDK sold more tickets than Shrek 2 (even though the BOM chart says TDK was bigger in tickets). Edited July 9, 2015 by redfirebird2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregBeuke Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 What are the chances of Terminator making below $10 million this weekend? What are the chances of Terminator making below $10 million this weekend? LOL oh boy. Someone is rooting too hard for this to fail. It will probably drop to 2.3-2.5 million today. Then probably jump back to 4 million Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Yeah, does anyone really think JP4 is 80% more popular than the original JP film? That's how it looks when you compare 650 with 357 gross. The National Assocation of Theater Owners is nice enough to provide the average ticket price every quarter. It's foolish to ignore that data when we have it available. It s funny because the only time the trades and american media tried to explain this to the masses was for Avatar. When the movie became the biggest movie of all time (lol !) in the USA, all of a sudden, hundreds of think pieces were released with the same title : " Avatar, biggest movie of all time ? Not really", and they tried to explain the concept of money, inflation : economics 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It s funny because the only time the trades and american media tried to explain this to the masses was for Avatar. When the movie became the biggest movie of all time (lol !) in the USA, all of a sudden, hundreds of think pieces were released with the same title : " Avatar, biggest movie of all time ? Not really", and they tried to explain the concept of money, inflation : economics 101. Though BO.com's articles for JP4's entire run has repeatedly said "unadjusted" when referring to its status on the various all-time charts. Meanwhile they don't refer to the same thing when comparing T5 with T2 for instance, which I think is ridiculous. T5 is a fucking disaster if you compare it to the height of the franchise in admissions, but the media isn't really harping on that one for some reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 My gf wants to see 'Mad Max' and 'Fury'. How freakin awesome is that?! I can't believe she got them so damn right. My two favourite movies I've seen this year. I am a happy guy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Terminator is probably gonna have an average second weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 It s funny because the only time the trades and american media tried to explain this to the masses was for Avatar. When the movie became the biggest movie of all time (lol !) in the USA, all of a sudden, hundreds of think pieces were released with the same title : " Avatar, biggest movie of all time ? Not really", and they tried to explain the concept of money, inflation : economics 101. Though BO.com's articles for JP4's entire run has repeatedly said "unadjusted" when referring to its status on the various all-time charts. Meanwhile they don't refer to the same thing when comparing T5 with T2 for instance, which I think is ridiculous. T5 is a fucking disaster if you compare it to the height of the franchise in admissions, but the media isn't really harping on that one for some reason. Because no one cares. Genisys is going to be relegated to the bargain rental bin in a few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 T2 adjusted for inflation, 3D, and IMAX/PLF = $440m. T5 will end up around 22% of the admissions, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 T5 won't have 1/4 the attendance of T2. Embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Because no one cares. Genisys is going to be relegated to the bargain rental bin in a few years Fair point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted July 9, 2015 Share Posted July 9, 2015 Is Avatar's ticket estimate based on dailies or is it all on 2009's average price? I imagine it would be a lot more accurate based on 2010's average price. They separate them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
