Weekend Estimates: Minions - 115.2M; JW - 18.1M; Inside Out - 17.1M; Gallows - 10M; Self/Less - 5.4M; MMXXL - 9.6M; T5 - 13.7M

[mredman]

So what is with all the trolls. 4 million is not even that bad for T:G

[Gopher]

They will enter if a whole new level of fudge if they are able to push it over 100M with the results so far.

There's a difference between just padding along runs of blockbusters like Jurassic or Inside Out and getting to 100-200-300 milestones. If TG gets to 100 Para gets SIGNIFICANTLY more for TV deals. This is why movies get pushed to the nearest hundred all the time. They'll do everything in their power to see that they can get more $$ from another venture.

[The Panda]

350 doesn't really matter. Not going to get them more TV money or anything like breaking 300 will. Beating Nemo (which we can now all agree should happen) as their highest grossing original movie is a significant line to give investors, though.

The reason I'd call all this 'fudge' and not what Paramount did with TF2/TF4 is that driveins just report the same total numbers for both movies. If IO/Minions and JW/Minions both picked up like 400k yesterday, that means Minions gets 800k, IO gets 400k and JW gets 400k. It's just making up money. But it happens with everything-- JW and Pitch Perfect, Avengers and Cinderella, etc etc.

Yeah but that's always happened, its the precedent, so I don't see it as fudge. None of the studios intentionally claimed wrong numbers, they reported how they've always done it.

[CoolK]

awesome for IO 

with that friday 17-18c weekend should be possible

[Ethan Hunt]

My lord... Everyone has to be one extreme or another...

“Fuck the industry fudging is what's wrong with the industry"

Or

“Everyonr fudges get used to it bitches"

There's no in between it seems (slightly hyperbolic)

[grim22]

Genisys improving on Lone Ranger's dailies. Still looking at a 90M finish.

[Mojoguy]

There's a difference between just padding along runs of blockbusters like Jurassic or Inside Out and getting to 100-200-300 milestones. If TG gets to 100 Para gets SIGNIFICANTLY more for TV deals. This is why movies get pushed to the nearest hundred all the time. They'll do everything in their power to see that they can get more $$ from another venture.

Disney's Hercules got screwed then

 

Hercules

 

Domestic Total Gross: $99,112,101
Distributor: Buena Vista	Release Date: June 15, 1997
Genre: Animation	Runtime: 1 hrs. 32 min.
MPAA Rating: G	Production Budget: $85 million

[JohnnyGossamer]

So what is with all the trolls. 4 million is not even that bad for T:G

Likely a 50%+ drop from a deflated OW. Not good. Harder drop than IO and Jurassic which both had the direct competition of Minions. Also, possibly the highest weekend to weekend % drop of any film in the Top Ten. Again, you're celebrating? Or, you're simply surprised that it won't drop 55%+ this weekend and truly embarrass itself?

Edited July 11, 2015 by JohnnyGossamer

[CJohn]

 

Disney's Hercules got screwed then

 

 

There is a worst case with Disney. Gnomeo & Juliet. Never forget

Edited July 11, 2015 by CJohn

[redfirebird2008]

So Baumer, about the "maximum 45%" drop for Terminator? How's that working out?

[bladels]

Why everyone says IO gets a good number? That drop is bigger than MU's when DM2 opens.

[JohnnyGossamer]

So Baumer, about the "maximum 45%" drop for Terminator? How's that working out?

Unless it somehow holds extremely well Saturday and Sunday, WOM's a bit more toxic than he and some others anticipated.

[John Marston]

Which movies got fudged?

[Mojoguy]

Which movies got fudged?

Pretty much everything.

[Ezen Baklattan]

IO and JW for sure

[Chaz]

Why everyone says IO gets a good number? That drop is bigger than MU's when DM2 opens.

MU was only in its second week.

[Bishop54]

Which movies got fudged?

Well IO and JW weren't really fudged, they shared drive-in screens with Minions.

[mahnamahna]

IO

 

5.4

7.2

5.6

 

18.2 (39%) 

 

JW

5.3

7.6

6.1 

 

19.0 (37%) 

 

Minions

46.2

48.5 (thinking it's huge today) 

37.5

 

132.2 OW 

 

So IO is set for $350-390 million DOM (depending on how it holds against Pixels/Ant-Man), JW for $640-660 million DOM and Minions for at least $340 million DOM (a Shrek 3 multi)... 3x-3.2x is more likely... so $395 million-$425 million DOM is the range 

 

And we've still got all of these as potential $200 million+ DOM grossers:

 

Ant-Man

Pixels

MI5

random mid-budget film (Trainwreck, Vacation, or Compton - I'm thinking one of the three comes out of nowhere with $160 million+ DOM. Possibly $200-210 million) 

The Martian ($190-210 million is my guess if it's a return to form for Ridley Scott) 

Spectre 

Mockingjay Part 2

Good Dinosaur

Star Wars Episode VII 

 

 

4 of those are locks (Spectre, Good Dinosaur, MJ2, Star Wars Episode VII) and all of those locks have at least a  decent shot at $250 million+ DOM, too (Spectre and GD are the ones I'm talking about  ) 

 

2015 is really just gigantic! 

[Avatree]

Pretty much everything.

 

[grim22]

Disney's Hercules got screwed then

Hercules

Domestic Total Gross: $99,112,101 Distributor: Buena Vista Release Date: June 15, 1997 Genre: Animation Runtime: 1 hrs. 32 min. MPAA Rating: G Production Budget: $85 million

3 words. Gnomeo. And. Juliet.

Gnomeo and Juliet

Domestic Total Gross: $99,967,670

Hercules and Gnomeo are the only 2 movies in history with a final gross between 99-99.99M