Aladdin live action movie | 24 MAY 2019 | Disney | 7th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

[JGAR4LIFE]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What are "MU" numbers?

Monsters University?

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What are "MU" numbers?

Monsters University ($270M DOM), my range is around $265M-$290M.

[Eric Duncan]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

If the buzz is already lukewarm, the sheep critics will follow suit. 

[jedijake]

10 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Monsters University ($270M DOM), my range is around $265M-$290M.

Thanks! At the absolute minimum, POTC: OST numbers. MU numbers would be nice, I guess. I mean, it's certainly a downgrade of what I had been expecting and hoping for. But anything to keep it from being considered a flop. I doubt OST or especially MU numbers would be considered a flop.

[Valonqar]

11 hours ago, jedijake said:

Aladdin will have to see better marketing for Aladdin. Disney Junior is pushing Aladdin BIG TIME and is even featuring Agrabah at Adventureland a LOT in their Disney promos. Dumbo hit a wall in marketing around December or January. After the first full trailer dropped in November, it seemed to drop off a cliff. 

 

Disney Store will be launching their new Aladdin merchandise next week (or maybe it's this week). They need to keep pushing it. What will be most destructive to it (which almost seems guaranteed) is a low RT score. Maybe it will surprise, but I don't know. If the buzz is already lukewarm, the sheep critics will follow suit. 

I think that Disney can't handle that many competing properties at the same time. they overestimated themselves and released movies that needed bigger marketing push to catch on but received far less because Disney was backing sure things (CM, EG) in full so those other movies suffered in the shadow. It's just the nature of things. On one side, they want big movies to be bigger, which means they'll have to stall internal competition by not giving that competition proper push. On the other side, they make those other movies cause they think they can be profitable with lesser promo. The studio is overproducing and should get more selective especially with those live action remakes. Not all of them are cinema material, so I think that Disney Plus will get some of those as direct to streaming events from now on. Dumbo, Nutcracker, AWIT were pure streaming material that somehow wandered into cinemas. 

Edited April 9, 2019 by Valonqar

[YM!]

36 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Thanks! At the absolute minimum, POTC: OST numbers. MU numbers would be nice, I guess. I mean, it's certainly a downgrade of what I had been expecting and hoping for. But anything to keep it from being considered a flop. I doubt OST or especially MU numbers would be considered a flop.

My minimum is probably around $210M to be honest as I still expect the blitz of Pikachu/Pets/TS4 (especially the latter as I imagine Disney wants a head start on that) to all eat into each other but benefit from weak family fare the first 1/3 of the year and I still think Pikachu is likely for $300M DOM it has the advantage of being first.

 

Overseas will help though as I expect it to make some nice coin, as again it’ll probably reach $800M WW with ease.

Edited April 9, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[jedijake]

45 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

My minimum is probably around $210M to be honest as I still expect the blitz of Pikachu/Pets/TS4 (especially the latter as I imagine Disney wants a head start on that) to all eat into each other but benefit from weak family fare the first 1/3 of the year and I still think Pikachu is likely for $300M DOM it has the advantage of being first.

 

Overseas will help though as I expect it to make some nice coin, as again it’ll probably reach $800M WW with ease.

I truly think people are overestimating Pikachu. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I truly think people are overestimating Pikachu. 

I mean long range forecast is strong from BOP, stronger than Aladdin actually, social media buzz is strong, test screenings are through the roof good, and it benefits from being the first major family film since Dragon 3 and it being shorter and lighter than Endgame helps it a lot. I think it will be very big. Our China Box Office insider thinks $300M is happening there.

 

The main thing to worry is how WB handles the rest of the marketing as they are notorious for causing the deaths of most of their family films. Out of curiousity what are you predicting.

[filmlover]

42 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I truly think people are overestimating Pikachu. 

Prepare to feel the wrath of the Detective Pikanuts.

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Prepare to feel the wrath of the Detective Pikanuts.

 

proud Pikanut here! 

[Valonqar]

Aladdin novelization reveals some changes to make it feel more modern.

[TMP]

This is gonna be like Dumbo all over again where people keep over-predicting it and it does sub-$150m or something

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

This is gonna be like Dumbo all over again where people keep over-predicting it and it does sub-$150m or something

I highly doubt it. Everyone I know is so excited for this, even my mom heh. The recent underperformances of Dumbo and Mary Poppins Returns make sense in retrospect considering they were super old properties with minimal resonance for today's audience. That stretch of The Little Mermaid/Beauty and the Beast/Aladdin/The Lion King was always gonna be where the real money was.

[jedijake]

5 minutes ago, TMP said:

This is gonna be like Dumbo all over again where people keep over-predicting it and it does sub-$150m or something

That's rather extreme but I DO wonder about its overall success on the heels of Dumbo's massive failure and all the attention on End Game (at the moment). May will have to be particularly strong marketing month for Aladdin.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

This is gonna be like Dumbo all over again where people keep over-predicting it and it does sub-$150m or something

I can’t realistic see it under $200M even though Disney will give it the short end of the stick marketing wise as again I bet they’d rather have Endgame/TS4 over-perform and Ritchie’s divisiveness in film. Dumbo in hindsight was a case of it perhaps being too somber and maybe too old and Aladdin has a wider fan base.

 

Although $300M is probably the ceiling. It, Pikachu, Pets 2 and TS4 will all eat into each other being released in the span of 8 weeks as I can see a very realistic possibility where only TS4 reaches over $300M DOM.

[Valonqar]

Aladdin dolls are beautiful. I'll get Second row Jasmine for my youngest sister:

 

 

[YM!]

A major benefit Aladdin has is even with Pikachu, the family drought that has been around for the first 4 months aside from Dragon 3 will help it.

[MrGlass2]

Disney won't allow three live-action remakes/sequel flops in a row. Richie's magic will do the rest.

 

$250M+ domestic.

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 19, 2019 by sfran43

[excel1]

release A WHOLE NEW WORLD to the world the 2 weeks before and hype will explode like Vesuvius