Aladdin live action movie | 24 MAY 2019 | Disney | 7th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, cookie said:

Dumbo never really had all that strong trailer views from what I recall. Aladdin and especially Lion King always tracked far stronger on social media - even during the infamous Grammy sneak peek.

correct

 

Aladdin trailer 2 have 47 million views just on YouTube in just 15 days [27 million on Disney channel + 20 million on Will Smith channel]

Dumbo trailer 2 have only 13 million views in more than 4 months

 

Comparing these two movies it's just dumb, it's perfectly clear Aladdin have a much stronger buzz and interest 

[Spidey Freak]

The top 5 Renaissance films (Mermaid, BatB, Aladdin, TLK, Mulan) have their own inbuilt fanbases around the world (unlike Dumbo). 

 

Also, for all the handwringing over Aladdin's date, it was always much better than Dumbo's release date. Not only was Dumbo sandwiched between two Marvel juggernauts but it's also sandwiched between two critical/potential BO smashes in Us and Shazam! And no summer days for legs either. The weak reviews were the last straw.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

The top 5 Renaissance films (Mermaid, BatB, Aladdin, TLK, Mulan) have their own inbuilt fanbases around the world (unlike Dumbo). 

 

Also, for all the handwringing over Aladdin's date, it was always much better than Dumbo's release date. Not only was Dumbo sandwiched between two Marvel juggernauts but it's also sandwiched between two critical/potential BO smashes in Us and Shazam! And no summer days for legs either. The weak reviews were the last straw.

I do agree with the first part as for release date I’m iffy, as Aladdin is part of an 8 week blitz of $300m+ aiming family films and opens on the frontloaded MD weekend. I still think Dumbo will have better legs.

[titanic2187]

Aladdin has more nostalgic power in is hand.....the generation of aladdin are all grown ups but dumbo generation were largely dead or too old to recall their childhood. 

[jedijake]

It's interesting that after the February disaster teaser, all the talk was about how HORRIBLE Aladdin looked and how it was going to "bomb" (numbers we are now seeing from BOP). But after the March full trailer which really impressed people and made it look SO much better, we are only hearing about the competition.

 

Dunno-this is going to be a tough one. BOP does pretty darn well with OW projections. Long term, not so much.

[JGAR4LIFE]

Things would’ve been much more clear if there was another trailer earlier, maybe that rumored Super Bowl one could’ve helped. The latest trailer was good but came out pretty late. Now we’re left with nothing but a film hard to predict at the box office.

[Cappoedameron]

4 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again Dumbo doesn’t really relate to this, in think it’s a matter of circumstance. I think Aladdin will do well OS even with competition (as to be honest, it’s more of a DOM problem) as dates are more spread out and different market potentials (for example I think Aladdin could do $100M in Japan where as Pika would struggle with $40M) like really well so it’s not a problem. 

 

Aladdin doing $100M in Japan, LOL okay. IW couldn't even do that. You'll be lucky to even get $35-50

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Aladdin doing $100M in Japan, LOL okay. IW couldn't even do that. You'll be lucky to even get $35-50

Considering musicals tend to be bigger in Japan and the fact Beast did $100M, I’d say chances seem fair. Not a lock or even say very likely but there’s a chance.

[JGAR4LIFE]

Godzilla, coming out on the same day there as in the US and worldwide, won’t allow that 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

Godzilla, coming out on the same day there as in the US and worldwide, won’t allow that 

Last time I checked the Japan Box Office forum, the insider last said they expect a range from ¥5-10B ($45M-$90M) for both Aladdin (which is the biggest Disney Reninasnce film there) and Lion King and Japan is more of a legs market.

 

That said, I don’t expect much OS from it, a $270M/$530M/$800M seems right.

[JGAR4LIFE]

I don’t know when Aladdin is coming out in Japan, but the inclusion of the big 3 in Godzilla: King of the Monsters will ensure a big performance at the box office. Around $30-45M.

[The Futurist]

4 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

The top 5 Renaissance films (Mermaid, BatB, Aladdin, TLK, Mulan) have their own inbuilt fanbases around the world (unlike Dumbo). 

 

Also, for all the handwringing over Aladdin's date, it was always much better than Dumbo's release date. Not only was Dumbo sandwiched between two Marvel juggernauts but it's also sandwiched between two critical/potential BO smashes in Us and Shazam! And no summer days for legs either. The weak reviews were the last straw.

Tarzan was bigger than Mulan.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Tarzan was bigger than Mulan.

I agree. Tarzan’s $448M WW doesn’t lie. Third biggest WW-wise in the Disney Renaissance.

[Cappoedameron]

2 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Considering musicals tend to be bigger in Japan and the fact Beast did $100M, I’d say chances seem fair. Not a lock or even say very likely but there’s a chance.

Beast and Aladdin are two entirely different ballparks. Just look at how Beast was tracking and trailer views from get go. Two completely different things.

[lilmac]

pretty confident Aladdin will now beat Dumbo's domestic total.

[George Parr]

2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

Aladdin doing $100M in Japan, LOL okay. IW couldn't even do that. You'll be lucky to even get $35-50

Not quite sure why you picked IW as a counter-example, as the MCU is notoriously weak in Japan compared to the rest of the world, as are comic book movies in general. Even POTC 5 outclasses the biggest of these movies. There isn't another big market where that movie came even close to IW, but it easily won in Japan.

 

100m for Aladdin is definately on the optimistic side, but then again, it is hardly impossible, seeing how Beauty and the Beast topped that mark. Japan does not work like any other market in the world, it has a specific taste and a unique behaviour for its box office runs. Latest impressions haven't exactly been trending towards a huge run for Aladdin, but it should still deliver a good result that should handily beat IW there.

Edited March 30, 2019 by George Parr

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Beast and Aladdin are two entirely different ballparks. Just look at how Beast was tracking and trailer views from get go. Two completely different things.

Beast had a $7M OW and legged it to $100M in Japan, now that was during a major Spring Holiday but we have analysts from Japan who think the $45M-$90M is very likely for Aladdin as well as the Lion King. I suspect it’ll be more towards the latter as musicals seem to be thriving there and the fact that Aladdin is the biggest Disney renaissance film there. I’m probably going to guess in the middle and say $60M-$65M for Japan. I am just talking about one market not all of them.

 

I expect Aladdin to do about half of what Beast did in the states and probably in the $500M range OS.

[DisposedData]

2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

Aladdin doing $100M in Japan, LOL okay. IW couldn't even do that. You'll be lucky to even get $35-50

You do realize the Superhero genre isn't that big in Japan right?  Aladdin is arguably the biggest Disney classic film in Japan on the other hand. 

Edited March 30, 2019 by DisposedData
Forgot something.

[Royce]

Before any trailer/teasers were released I always thought it would be bigger than BATB (despite Guy Ritchie and this supposed "cursed weekend")

 

It's been a bumpy ride but the last trailer really confirms my beliefs, this movie is seriously underestimated

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

You do realize the Superhero genre isn't that big in Japan right?  Aladdin is arguably the biggest Disney classic film in Japan on the other hand. 

Since when??? There are at least a dozen Disney IPs that spring to mind as being huge in Japan before Aladdin. The Japanese's love for Disney IPs like Frozen, Beauty and the Beast, Alice in Wonderland, Peter Pan, Winnie the Pooh, Lilo and Stitch, Monsters Inc, Finding Nemo, Toy Story, etc is well known and evident. But I've never heard of  Aladdin being a particularly big one there. I mean, it doesn't even have a real presence at the Tokyo theme parks, which says a lot.