Official Weekend Estimates |MI5 - 56M; Vacation - 14.9M; Ant-Man - 12.6M; Minions - 12.2M; Pixels - 10.4M; Trainwreck - 9.7M| Pg58

[TalismanRing]

Still thinking:

MI5 - 170 million

Minions - 325 DOM topping Shrek 3 by a close margin

IO - 350

JW - 645

Antman - 150

 

Ant-man will be about $11m behind Cap1 after the weekend.  Cap 1 made $33m more off a $13m w/e with one week less of summer days.  I think Ant-Man can do $160-65m.

[baumer]

I thought train wreck had a chance at 100 mil.

It will easily.

[The Futurist]

F4 OW > MI5 OW.

Book it.

 

[TacoBell]

F4 OW > MI5 OW.

Book it.

 

I'm in

F4 will surprise, I can feel it

[Gopher]

I think it's worth noting that they were in the middle of filming MI5 at the end of January when Paramount pushed the film up FIVE MONTHS. That cut post-production time on the film from nine months to three and a half. The fact that the film was ready at all is amazing, let alone the fact that it's (IMO) the best Mission film. 

Edited August 1, 2015 by Gopher

[The Futurist]

I think it's worth noting that they were in the middle of filming MI5 at the end of January when Paramount pushed the film up FIVE MONTHS. That cut post-production time on the film from nine months to three and a half. The fact that the film was ready at all is amazing, let alone the fact that it's (IMO) the best Mission film. 

 

The movie has CGI stuff but they couldn't have pulled this off with a full on CGI tentpole.

[The Dark Alfred]

It's a solid OD. Cruise's career high. Think this could do 175m with its good WoM, maybe an outside shot at 200m. Decent OS start as well, heading to 350-400m without China and it could easily do 200m there.

[Moviedweeb]

Mission: Impossible did fine. This always felt like just another summer blockbuster instead of a must-see event, so these solid if standard numbers don't seem too surprising.

Word of mouth will make this the must see film of the late-summer. I think this is a really strong OD for Cruise and I still think this is passing $200m DOM.

[goldenstate5]

Well, I usually am not favorable to action films over two hours unless it's, well, Die Hard, but I kind of liked Ghost Protocol (despite the length) and I was wavering on this... but all the positive praise is getting me to see Rogue Nation next week.

 

So yup, WOM already workin.

Edited August 1, 2015 by goldenstate5

[Fancyarcher]

I read this in Disgust's voice.  It worked. 

 

Neat-o, yuck!

Edited August 1, 2015 by Insidearcher

[John Marston]

I think moving it up to July was a good idea. It would have been overshadowed by Star Wars in December and also would have had its thunder stolen by Spectre a month earlier. 

[kowan]

What's with the low increases this friday though? Only 20+% increases to some movies? I hope they're just being conservative with their estimates. lol

[Fancyarcher]

That'd just interviews being rude as fuck to her. She seems so down to earth

 

She's a spoiled person, who only found success because of nepotism. I doubt she's really down to earth.

Edited August 1, 2015 by Insidearcher

[terrestrial]

I think it's worth noting that they were in the middle of filming MI5 at the end of January when Paramount pushed the film up FIVE MONTHS. That cut post-production time on the film from nine months to three and a half. The fact that the film was ready at all is amazing, let alone the fact that it's (IMO) the best Mission film. 

 

 

The movie has CGI stuff but they couldn't have pulled this off with a full on CGI tentpole.

 

Do you happen to know if they cancelled CGI orders?

 

I really hope not another CGI company got screwed over by a Hollywood studio

[RobinHood26]

Still think this would have done gangbusters MLK weekend 

[terrestrial]

Ant-man will be about $11m behind Cap1 after the weekend.  Cap 1 made $33m more off a $13m w/e with one week less of summer days.  I think Ant-Man can do $160-65m.

 

Forbes in an article of 31 July thinks $150m to $175m dom

 

The article has some other - to me - interesting details:

 

 

.... Wednesdy Ant-Man has earned $116.8 million at the domestic box office and $234 million at the worldwide box office. That puts the Marvel adventure just past the $116.6m US and $219m worldwide take of Green Lantern from 2011...

...with a $57 million opening weekend. That was the second-lowest debut in Marvel Studios history, ...more like (non MCU films) X-Men: First Class, The Wolverine, Fantastic Four, and yes, Green Lantern and Watchmen. Yet despite the fact that all of these films opened just over/under $55m, they had vastly different box office trajectories and their overall performance led to wholly different long term outcomes.

 

As of now, the closest comparison point is X-Men: First Class, ... in glorious 2D with $55m ... $146m domestic cume (and $353m worldwide) on a $160m budget. .... jumpstarted fan faith in the long-running franchise and that goodwill paid off with X-Men: Days of Future Past last summer. 

Fantastic Four, which dropped ten years ago, was actually a pretty big hit in its day. It opened with $56m (more than the Fri-Sun $48m debut of Batman Begins) and eventually earned $157m domestic and $330m worldwide on a $100m budget.

Let’s just say Fox will be thrilled if The Fantastic Four manages to more-than-triple its $120m budget next month. It spawned a sequel (Rise of the Silver Surfer) two years later that cost a little more ($130m), opened a little bigger ($58m) but did a little worse here and abroad ($131m/$288m).

 

Watchmen opened with $55m 03/2009, which normally would be a fantastic debut for a 2.75 hour R-rated comic book movie based on a cult property. .. cost $150m ...e worse than that with a $107m domestic total and $185m worldwide cume.

Same with Green Lantern, which opened with $53m in June of 2011. Again, this was a heavily troubled production based on a B-list DC Comics character just before so-called geek media basically took control of the mass media at large. So under normal circumstances a $53m debut would be pretty solid. ...film collapsed with $116m/$219m total on a $200m+ budget. ...many big budget disasters still manage to scrape up $250m-$300m worldwide, I’m still shocked at how poorly Green Lantern did ...

 

...Ant-Man did not wither and die after its first three days. At $234m and counting, it will soon surpass the $263m worldwide cume of The Incredible Hulk. It will eventually surpass the $353m cume of X-Men: First Class and the various totals of the first two Fantastic Four movies.

Heck, inflation and 3D bump aside, it will likely surpass the $374m total of Batman Begins, the $391m total of Superman Returns, and the $385m cume of the first Star Trek. All of this, by the way, on a mere $130m budget, making it one of the cheaper “big” comic book superhero movies of the last fifteen years. 

And it’s not quite done yet. Domestically, it’s heading towards a $150m-$175m total, and worldwide is a frustratingly open question since it doesn’t open in Greece, China, and Japan until September. And this will be among the lower-grossing Marvel Studios films thus far. So much for superhero fatigue.

....

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2015/07/31/box-office-ant-man-has-topped-green-lantern/

[Blankments]

Looks like I might not being seeing M:I5 this weekend; fuckkkkkkk

[Chewy]

Comparing Ant-Man's WW cume to movies that came out a decade ago. That's how you know the author doesn't know the first thing about box office

[Ethan Hunt]

Looks like I might not being seeing M:I5 this weekend; fuckkkkkkk

[terrestrial]

Before too generalisingly judging the author you might want to read the complete details.

Including all release dates.... and why he added which titles is - to me at least - obvious.

Ant-Man isn't the only CBM movie actual in the cinemas or very soon in the cinemas and some CBM-fatigue claims are also since a long time boring me. As in, it was also told in the '90....