Weekend #s: Straight Outta Compton - 26.8M; Mission Impossible - 11.7M; Sinister 2 - 10.6M; Hitman - 8.2M; American Ultra - 5.5M

[terrestrial]

I think the key word people are missing here is "relative to expectations prior to release"

 

Yes, revisionism does occur, and we're all guilty of it in one way or another (especially for films we're biased for or against), but I think most of the time, people had higher expectations for Ant-Man/Terminator than Mad Max/MI5, at least prior to release.

But why do you think that (and some others)?

1. the average expectations at that game some play, Ant-Man is doing what was expected. Only a few days before release some here and the net (including bloggers elsewhere) started to go ~ crazy and increased their estimates, bringing up GotG way higher than expected numbers as the new normal and so on.

Also a lot had a rather arrogant sounding reasoning like: it's a Marvel movie, GA is stupid anyway, brand recognition is reason enought the sheeps (GA) will follow it blindly... so it will make a lot of more money than e.g. BO.com's long range forecast told.

They meant $58m OW (it did a 57.3m) and a final of $147m, what it will surpass considerable

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-05-long-range-forecast-ant-man

 

My impression:

some (not all) couldn't stop themselves to use either their bias to speak rather repeatedly/often down on GA and/or fans, diminishing any potential success beforehand, combined with some enthusiastic fans that seem to have cought on the IMHO way too high over-the-top-DEMANDS some anti-MCU posters did (like if it doesn't make the same as GotG it will be proof for failure / a decline of... and so 'swaying' each other (and others) higher and higher

 

As reality hit: disappointment in the numbers instead of rechecking the reasons why the expectaions got so fast out of hand

 

Does Ant-Man have enough fuel left in its tank to outgross Captain America: The First Avenger?

assuming you speak about dom

around 2 weeks back it was ~ $9m behind CA 1 in the day-in release sums, yesterday it was $6.something, it looks like it closes the gap theis weekend alone again $2m, has surpassed during it's 5th week in release with its dailies CA1, Thor 1 and 2, obviously also IHulk and managed even to top CA 2 for every weekday (Mon-Thursday)

Some think it might even outgross Thor 1's dom

 

Starting with the Thursday reported $193.3m for OS:

Ant-Man needs

$0.6m to surpass CA 1s OS of $193.9

$73.5m to surpass IM 1s OS of $266.8

$75m to surpass Thor 1s OS of $268.3

$118.2m to surpass IM 2s OS of $311.5

 

It isnt't even released yet in China, SK, and Japan

[terrestrial]

I am out in a few minutes (family treats me to a birthday dinner and so on),        so here the probably slightly incomplete chart for now

 

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic) Fri, Aug. 21 - Sun, Aug. 23

← previous

Wide (1000+)

#	Title	weekend		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Straight Outta Compton	$27,800,000	-54%	3,025	268	$9,190	$112,523,470	2	Universal
2	Sinister 2	$10,500,000	--	2,766	--	$3,796	$10,500,000	1	Focus / Gramercy
3	The Man from U.N.C.L.E.	$7,600,000	-43%	3,673	35	$2,069	$26,816,840	2	Warner Bros.
4	Hitman: Agent 47	$7,500,000	--	3,261	--	$2,300	$7,500,000	1	Fox
5	American Ultra	$5,700,000	--	2,778	--	$2,052	$5,700,000	1	Lionsgate
6	Ant-Man	$4,200,000	-24%	2,016	-290	$2,083	$164,636,370	6	Disney
7	Minions	$3,900,000	-24%	2,226	-414	$1,752	$320,155,325	7	Universal
8	Fantastic Four (2015)	$3,600,000	-56%	2,581	-1423	$1,395	$49,575,362	3	Fox
9	Ricki and the Flash	$3,100,000	-32%	2,013	-51	$1,540	$20,350,170	3	Sony / TriStar
10	Vacation (2015)	$3,000,000	-42%	2,302	-786	$1,303	$52,173,256	4	Warner Bros. / New Line
11	Trainwreck	$2,500,000	-35%	1,333	-665	$1,875	$102,434,110	6	Universal
12	Pixels	$2,000,000	-41%	1,349	-827	$1,483	$68,412,189	5	Sony / Columbia
13	Shaun the Sheep Movie	$1,500,000	-48%	1,678	-682	$894	$14,505,452	3	Lionsgate
14	Southpaw	$1,200,000	-50%	1,058	-669	$1,134	$48,087,274	5	Weinstein Company

Limited (100 — 999)

#	Title	weekend		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Inside Out (2015)	$1,700,000	-17%	821	-198	$2,071	$342,458,715	10	Disney
2	Jurassic World	$975,000	-21%	574	-164	$1,699	$639,595,980	11	Universal
3	Paper Towns	$330,000	-44%	373	-226	$885	$31,093,884	5	Fox
4	Spy (2015)	$175,000	-19%	209	-17	$837	$110,143,676	12	Fox

Platform (1 — 99)

#	Title	weekend		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Mistress America	$220,000	136%	32	28	$6,875	$361,048	2	Fox Searchlight

 

[keysersoze123]

Difference is reception. Mad Max got an insanely positive response and its legs are approaching 3.5x from opening weekend. Audiences didn't care about Terminator at all. Paramount knows a sixth Terminator would drop even from this one, just as Sony knew an Amazing Spiderman 3 would drop from 2.

 

Plus MMFR did great domestic. Studio share is better for MMFR and pay out could happen with the sequel. Terminator on the other hand will keep going down.

[kayumanggi]

THE GIFT earned an official estimate of $1.26M on Friday. Domestic total is now $28.0M. #TheGift

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

August 22, 2015

[75Live]

In the theater, finally seeing Compton

[kayumanggi]

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	1	Straight Outta Compton	Uni.	$8,300,000	+82%	-66%	3,025	$2,744	$93,023,000	8
2	-	Sinister 2	Focus	$4,700,000	-	-	2,766	$1,699	$4,700,000	1
3	2	Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation	Par.	$3,345,000	+97%	-32%	3,342	$1,001	$149,408,000	22
4	-	Hitman: Agent 47	Fox	$3,085,000	-	-	3,261	$946	$3,085,000	1
5	3	The Man From U.N.C.L.E.	WB	$2,185,000	+87%	-55%	3,673	$595	$21,402,000	8
6	-	American Ultra	LGF	$2,100,000	-	-	2,778	$756	$2,100,000	1
7	6	The Gift (2015)	STX	$1,275,000	+96%	-34%	2,303	$554	$28,028,000	15
8	7	Ant-Man	BV	$1,178,000	+88%	-23%	2,016	$584	$161,614,000	36
9	5	Minions	Uni.	$1,100,000	+49%	-24%	2,226	$494	$317,355,000	43
10	4	Fantastic Four	Fox	$1,070,000	+41%	-57%	2,581	$415	$47,045,000	15

 

[Fancyarcher]

This is as good a place as any to bring this up. Terminator is going to make more than Mad Max worldwide. Yet for some reason people are praising Mad Max as being a box office hit and they are claming Terminator to be a complete failure. Both have the same kind of budget yet Terminator will probably end up making about 50 million dollars more worldwide. Strange isn't it lol

 

It's simple. Terminator Genisys was considered a poor movie, and died out at the domestic box office quickly, while Mad Max: Fury Road was considered a good movie, and had good legs considering what type of film it was.

[TalismanRing]

 

I am out in a few minutes (family treats me to a birthday dinner and so on),        so here the probably slightly incomplete chart for now

 

Happy Birthday!! 

[kayumanggi]

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - ROGUE NATION earned an official estimate of $3.35M on Friday. Domestic total is now... http://t.co/GSZG8LjB7t

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

August 22, 2015

[John Marston]

MI5 has been holding better than The Bourne Supremacy in 2004

[baumer]

Most of the time, these successes are measured by domestic and not international grosses. Honestly, mid-budget and up sci-fi and fantasy films save a LOOOOOOOTTTTT of face overseas.

 

Seventh Son, Jupiter Ascending, Terminator: Genisys, TF4, Chappie, RoboCop, Transcendence, and so many others made at least 70% of their worldwide gross overseas. Foreign auds love these genres more than we do, it seems. Hell, most of the big flop-labled films here fit into this category.

 

Also, Mad Max had a huge handicap overseas by not being shown by friend to all big budget adventures, China. That certainly gave Terminator another advantage. 

 

Then it's just the idea that Mad Max was expected to do a lot less than Terminator.

 

That's a complete fallacy, that domestic is worth more than international.  If that was the case, then there wouldn't be any pandering to international markets and rules and such.

[DAR]

Vacation has done kind of okay hasn't it?

[baumer]

So MM4 is somehow spinned into a failure and TG is a mild success despite the latter being a PG-13 movie featuring its (once) superstar appeal compared to MM4 being a niche R-rated movie reviving/rebooting a franchise whose last installment was released in 1985 not even featuring its star; still managed to be critically acclaimed and receiving great WOM, the exact polar opposite of TG's reception. Terminator franchise has always been more popular than Mad Max but will make less than T3 and T4 Dom. What an achievement indeed...

 

You obviously missed my point.  But I'm kind of used to that.  

 

When it comes to movies that are praised at this site, people have blinders on.

[baumer]

It's simple. Terminator Genisys was considered a poor movie, and died out at the domestic box office quickly, while Mad Max: Fury Road was considered a good movie, and had good legs considering what type of film it was.

 

Again, you are missing my point.

[DAR]

I get what your saying Baumer.  Thing is to the GA when EW or USA Today or their local paper prints a list of the box office for the end of the year.  They're only going to see the domestic totals for both films.  Most people aren't like us where they're going to drill down and see there's more there.

Edited August 22, 2015 by DAR

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Happy Bday terrestrial!

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Plus MMFR did great domestic. Studio share is better for MMFR and pay out could happen with the sequel. Terminator on the other hand will keep going down.

Well..the lowest grosser is the first Terminator with $38M DOM...the one that started this franchise.

So I don't see where a sequel (either the next one, or the one after that) could go lower than that.

If it turns out to be better than Genisys...I still don't see where they finishes lower than the franchise-starter, T1.

[TalismanRing]

Well..the lowest grosser is the first Terminator with $38M DOM...the one that started this franchise.

So I don't see where a sequel (either the next one, or the one after that) could go lower than that.

If it turns out to be better than Genisys...I still don't see where they finishes lower than the franchise-starter, T1.

 

The first movie was made in 1984 on a budget of $6.4m and was not yet iconic.

[kitik]

Does Ant-Man have enough fuel left in its tank to outgross Captain America: The First Avenger?

 

 

When I saw the OW numbers and factored in the usual Marvel multiplier, I wasn't even sure it could hit 150.

 

Impressive how much better it's held than Captain America and other Marvel films.

[TalismanRing]

That's a complete fallacy, that domestic is worth more than international.  If that was the case, then there wouldn't be any pandering to international markets and rules and such.

 

With an expanded international market, films especially these kind make a larger box office % O/S so of course studios care. Some do 70% or more O/S.   But that doesn't mean a box office $ made in Russia let alone China is as valuable to the studio as one made domestically.  It's not.

 

It's not personal. I'm one of the few here that didn't like MMF4, and I didn't see T5.

Edited August 22, 2015 by TalismanRing