Weekend Thread | Official estimate: The Martian 55M. Rth Sunday Est Pg43: 13.4M. Gravity will remain October OW record holder.

[MovieMan89]

Wow, I thought 17 tops. They really did a good job at creating hype the past few weeks. Really Ridley's first unequivocal box office success since Hannibal. Sounds like he stuck to the book though, opposed to throwing in his usual "flair" which audiences seem to be divisive on. Smart on his part if he wanted to keep making big budget movies, especially the Prometheus sequel(s). 

[CJohn]

  

The Martian- Decent chance, need to see how a couple movies play out. It's locked for some techs and has a good chance in Actor and Screenplay right now.

The other two- Very little chance.

The Martian has 0 chance besides a few technical nominations. 

[MovieMan89]

The Martian has 0 chance besides a few technical nominations. 

I wouldn't say that. The reviews are certainly on the level of a BP nom, and they like to get one big blockbuster in there. However, I still think TFA is getting it if it's on par with the OT and a box office phenomenon. So if that gets it, then I agree no Martian. They won't nom two sci-fis. 

 

But then again, Avatar and District 9....

[Jake Gittes]

Really Ridley's first unequivocal box office success since Hannibal. 

 

American Gangster?

[grim22]

I wouldn't say that. The reviews are certainly on the level of a BP nom, and they like to get one big blockbuster in there. However, I still think TFA is getting it if it's on par with the OT and a box office phenomenon. So if that gets it, then I agree no Martian. They won't nom two sci-fis.

But then again, Avatar and District 9....

It's not just about wide support anymore though. The "at least 5% of the academy should have the movie at #1" rule works against sci-fi. Avatar and District 9 were both before the rule change when a broad entertainer could make it.

[Ozymandias]

Fury Road or The Martian should be the populist BP nominee, not Star Wars.

Edited October 3, 2015 by Ozymandias

[WrathOfHan]

Edited October 3, 2015 by WrathOfHan

[MovieMan89]

American Gangster?

266m WW on a $100m budget. But then there were marketing costs too. They probably broke even or made a small profit is all. His movies always have too high of budgets for their gross. Actually, The Counselor may be his most profitable one since Hannibal, given it actually had a small-ish budget for once. 

[Mango]

Glad to see The Martian kicking ass.

[zackzack]

The $1M question is: Can Martian hit 31% Saturday bump?

[TLK]

The Walk had zero buzz until it premiered at NYFF last weekend. JGL isn't a box office draw on his own. He needed help but Sony dropped the ball.

[WrathOfHan]

The $1M question is: Can Martian hit 31% Saturday bump?

It can, and hopefully it does. I don't see how this can drop tomorrow and miss 50M.

[MovieMan89]

Fury Road or The Martian should be the populist BP nominee, not Star Wars.

SW is far more likely than Fury Road given great reception. As I've mentioned before, if TFA beats Avatar at the box office it is nearly locked for a BP nom according to history. I think all of the movies that have done it since Gone With the Wind got a BP nom. If the Academy is going to go with a popular film that has universal acclaim, it will be the one that was a phenomenon. This all assuming TFA gets rave reviews and smashes records of course. 

[Ozymandias]

Does RTH's 18.5 - 19.5m # for Martian include the 2.5 Thursday night?

[The Futurist]

SW is far more likely than Fury Road given great reception. As I've mentioned before, if TFA beats Avatar at the box office it is nearly locked for a BP nom according to history. I think all of the movies that have done it since Gone With the Wind got a BP nom. If the Academy is going to go with a popular film that has universal acclaim, it will be the one that was a phenomenon. This all assuming TFA gets rave reviews and smashes records of course. 

 

Rave Reviews.

Smashes Records.

 

No Biggies.

[WrathOfHan]

I can see all BP nominees being 100M grossers outside of Spotlight and Carol (if the latter is even nominated)

Does RTH's 18.5 - 19.5m # for Martian include the 2.5 Thursday night?

Those kinds of numbers typically do.

[MovieMan89]

Rave Reviews.

Smashes Records.

 

No Biggies.

It is in more of a position to do both than virtually any other blocklbuster ever made. But yes, it could disappoint. 

[Blankments]

Guys.

 

The populist BP pick will be Inside Out.

[MovieMan89]

Guys.

 

The populist BP pick will be Inside Out.

TGD is going to stop that. They will cancel each other out in the voting and neither will make it. Unless TGD sucks or is underwhelming. 

[Blankments]

One is about the emotions of a young girl dealing with a universal experience of moving away and growing up. The other is about dinosaurs. I honestly don't see Good Dinosaur being in discussion for BP regardless of quality.