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kayumanggi

MOANA | 394.6 M overseas ● 643.3 M worldwide

By kayumanggi, in International Box Office

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James Summer Tentpole

James

Posted
Posted

People's expectations for this are just silly and it might be deemed a disappointment despite making some great numbers. Reading this, people would call a sub-700m total meh. WTF? This is an original animation. Frozen and Zootopia were freaks of nature. Anything over 500m is a win for Moana. Based on early numbers and word from the foreign forums, I'd say around 250m DOM and 400m OS (which is a hell lot of money). 

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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted
On 26/11/2016 at 8:16 PM, Fullbuster said:

 

No

OW is about 10% higher than Rapunzel's, so with strong competition coming soon it won't do much more than BH6 numers domestically.

OS we already have a fail in China. Plus, the NA opening clearly shows the movie isn't going to breakout worldwide, and abysmal exchange rates don't help.

In addition to that, Disney tends to be unlucky with "exotic" "princesses".

You don't have to get 2/3 of the markets to make a rough projection. A good box office predictor can smell signs and take the right consequences.

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CelestialFairyIX Sleeper Hit

CelestialFairyIX

Posted
Posted (edited)

The only reason $700 million would seem like a disappointment is only because we feel that as loving and caring people, everyone should go see the film and enjoy one of the best theater experiences of 2016. :P

 

I'm expecting anywhere between Big Hero 6's and Inside Out's numbers.  Unless it breaks out in a big market outside of the US the Billion Dollar Dream is dead.  However, it has a really good release date in Japan and Disney may be going for a WOM ran behemoth much like Frozen.  It just has to survive a few months of "competition" to take advantage of the national holidays.

 

As for China, Frozen "only" did a bit below $50 million and this is heading towards $30 - 40 million so I don't think it's a bad number.  The true telling signs of whether this will break out or not is next week so we'll just have to wait and see.

 

At the moment, the soundtrack is steadily gaining traction, so maybe it'll reach its peak much later with the help of its songs?  WOM-ran films tend to open medium to small and lose steam very slowly, and I think that was Disney's plan all along: create a WOM behemoth much like Zootopia and Frozen.

 

PS: In response to @Quigley, I believe Big Hero 6 did around $80 million in China.

Edited by CelestialFairyIX
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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Quigley said:

Other than Zootopia, no Disney or Pixar film has earned more than ~$50M in China I think. Nothing special. Hopefully this one can make it past $50M. It seems to have done mediocre numbers in a group of small countries. We'll see...

Big Hero 6 made more than $80M

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yjs Box Office Gold

yjs

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, James said:

People's expectations for this are just silly and it might be deemed a disappointment despite making some great numbers. Reading this, people would call a sub-700m total meh. WTF? This is an original animation. Frozen and Zootopia were freaks of nature. Anything over 500m is a win for Moana. Based on early numbers and word from the foreign forums, I'd say around 250m DOM and 400m OS (which is a hell lot of money). 

 

I don't think people expecting $450M OS (assuming that Moana will do about $250M DOM) is that crazy, especially given the BH6's $435M OS and Tangled's $390M OS.

 

BH6 had an overall very strong performance in East Asia but was much weaker in Europe, while Tangled had a much stronger performance in Europe but faltered weak in East Asia (Japan had a tsunami, Korea still avoided non-Dreamworks animated films like a plague back then and it wasn't even released in China).  

 

So if Moana, as a similar princess musical, does similar or even a little less than what Tangled did in Europe, $450M OS doesn't feel like a too out-of-reach goal to have, especially when it will have much bigger Japan/China/Korea grosses than Tangled's abysmal $40M total from those three markets, even with China's major underperformance of Moana's. 

 

Saying $500M WW is a win for it seems more like lowballing it, honestly. it's more like a Hotel Transylvania 2 or a Rio 2 kinda number.. think the "original" argument is more for the movies like the LEGO Movie, not this. Moana is a little more high profile than that and WDAS does have a strong brand power in Europe, East Asia and South America, especially post-Frozen. (Altho it wasn't like you made a $500M prediction for this one, I think $650M is a reasonable prediction of yours for this.)

 

And as much as China is a key market, underperforming there doesn't mean the end of the world, either. Dory($540M OS/$38M China), IO($501M OS/$15M China), Frozen($875M OS/$48M China) Toy Story 3 ($652M OS/No China release) Tangled ($390M OS/No China release).. all did perfectly fine.

 

 

Edited by yjs
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