CoolioD1 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 FYC: I'm glad they are only going for the techs and not aiming too high. Gives it more of a shot 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 WTF is ogieloves?? Looks like teletubbies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 "Enthralling for pre-schoolers" is certainly a great argument for the Academy members to watch it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UptoLight Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I don`t know why people are so sceptical about Skyfall. The movie obviously has bigger support among guilds (Bardem`s SAG, PGA) than expected and it`s going to get nominated for major BAFTAs. Plus Oscars will celebrate Bond`s 50th Anniversary. Now lets hope that Brit block will rally up in support instead of splitting votes with fuckin Marigold Hotel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Watch your mouth about Marigold Hotel, fish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 (edited) I don`t know why people are so sceptical about Skyfall. The movie obviously has bigger support among guilds (Bardem`s SAG, PGA) than expected and it`s going to get nominated for major BAFTAs. Plus Oscars will celebrate Bond`s 50th Anniversary. Now lets hope that Brit block will rally up in support instead of splitting votes with fuckin Marigold Hotel.Marigold Hotel is a long shot, and Skyfall is a possibility.But I'm still a believer in TDKR. Edited January 6, 2013 by Alpha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 LOL, hilarious FYC for BP by WB.http://www.warnerbros2012.com/film.php?film=magicmike :rofl: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 2 horse race between Zero Dark 30 and Lincoln IMOLooking pretty good a month later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 The "real" race is Argo vs Lincoln. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Until the guilds say so, Argo's out of the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I don`t know why people are so sceptical about Skyfall. The movie obviously has bigger support among guilds (Bardem`s SAG, PGA) than expected and it`s going to get nominated for major BAFTAs. Plus Oscars will celebrate Bond`s 50th Anniversary. Now lets hope that Brit block will rally up in support instead of splitting votes with fuckin Marigold Hotel.A supporting actor nod isn't very indicative of Best Picture support (especially since SAG hadn't seen Django yet). Several blockbusters have been nominated for a PGA award and haven't gone on to the Oscars, perhaps because of the different voting system they use. And of course the BAFTA's will go for Skyfall but I don't think that will improve it's chances for Best Picture.Meanwhile, having seen Django I'm really hoping it gets several nods, especially BP. It looks very likely at the moment but I'm somewhat afraid of it pulling a Dragon Tattoo on us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Until the guilds say so, Argo's out of the race.Argo isn't out of the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 (edited) Argo isn't out of the race.It isn't out of the race, nothing is. But, it would be incredibly hard for it to stage a comeback so that it can gain the momentum to win. It peaked to early a la Up in the Air.A supporting actor nod isn't very indicative of Best Picture support (especially since SAG hadn't seen Django yet). Several blockbusters have been nominated for a PGA award and haven't gone on to the Oscars, perhaps because of the different voting system they use. And of course the BAFTA's will go for Skyfall but I don't think that will improve it's chances for Best Picture.Meanwhile, having seen Django I'm really hoping it gets several nods, especially BP. It looks very likely at the moment but I'm somewhat afraid of it pulling a Dragon Tattoo on us.I do think BAFTA will improve the chances, because there are a substantial number of Brits in the Academy, and they normally always put British films at #1, and some put down 5 British films on their BP ballot. 3 Films that based on some anecdotal evidence, and guessing that would be #1 on ballots are Les Mis, Exotic, and Skyfall. How big of a Brit boost it gets I'm not sure, but it definitely helps and with a blockbuster like Skyfall every single little bit helps.Plus with the PGA thing, TDK and Trek got sidelined. (Wikipedia doesn't list the nominees from early years, so I can't check some years). TDK would've gotten in with an extended line-up, leaving Trek as the only one that missed with a PGA. Chances are decent for Skyfall I'd say. If Tarantino gets DGA, I'll predict that Django get's Dragon Tattooed. Edited January 6, 2013 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I don`t know why people are so sceptical about Skyfall. The movie obviously has bigger support among guilds (Bardem`s SAG, PGA) than expected and it`s going to get nominated for major BAFTAs. Plus Oscars will celebrate Bond`s 50th Anniversary. Now lets hope that Brit block will rally up in support instead of splitting votes with fuckin Marigold Hotel.Maybe because there are at least 10 films (12, in my opinion) with better precursor support for the top prize? Neither Bardem's SAG nom nor the PGA nom means anything other that the film is in the Top 15. I will be shocked if Bardem gets in with the Academy, who actually saw Django Unchained, and I will be even more shocked if a throwaway blockbuster slot in the PGA translates to #1 votes. I see approximately zero chance that 300 members of the Academy pick Skyfall as the best film of the year. It's just not happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Maybe because there are at least 10 films (12, in my opinion) with better precursor support for the top prize? Neither Bardem's SAG nom nor the PGA nom means anything other that the film is in the Top 15. I will be shocked if Bardem gets in with the Academy, who actually saw Django Unchained, and I will be even more shocked if a throwaway blockbuster slot in the PGA translates to #1 votes. I see approximately zero chance that 300 members of the Academy pick Skyfall as the best film of the year. It's just not happening.It doesn't need 300 member of the Academy. It needs 1% of the actual number one votes of members who vote to stay alive. Then if it reaches 5% through redistribution it's through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 It doesn't need 300 member of the Academy. It needs 1% of the actual number one votes of members who vote to stay alive. Then if it reaches 5% through redistribution it's through.I don't even think it's a number 2 or 3 choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I don't even think it's a number 2 or 3 choice.Assuming a 6000 member strong academy (Real number is slightly below this, but 6000 is a nice round number). Academy turn-out for nominations is a little over 50% (I definitely remember this from somewhere, but I can't find the source.) So we'll use 50% as we used a higher academy membership number. That's about 3000 turned in ballots. It needs 1% or 30 #1 votes to "stay alive", and a total of 150 original or re-distributed #1 votes to be nominated. I think that having the Brits will be that advantage that something like Star Trek didn't to get Skyfall that nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Until the guilds say so, Argo's out of the race.Bullshit, Argo's barely below ZD30 in the precursor BP award battle so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
