druv10 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 14 minutes ago, #ED2-D2 said: I understand some people think it will drop less than 40% on Monday. I think if the figure lands about 60M for Sunday, that it's really hard to pull off a 30M+ on Monday. I don't think that is possible with winter breaks not in full effect yet. Not sure if you're serious. We just had 250M OW in December and most movies drop 40-45% so we're looking at 35-40M Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I'm glad it's passing avatar. Fuck that overrated garbage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I am guessing this is also the general weekend BO thread? A few small releases have actuals, for the newbes, sometimes those are hours released before the 'big' ones (and sometimes not) Bajirao Mastani $1,741,037 -- 304 -- $5,727 $1,741,037 Pierrot le Fou (2015 re-issue) $7,922 -- 1 -- $7,922 $7,922 James White $3,090 -53% 6 -4 $515 $101,368 Boy and the World $2,557 -75% 1 -1 $2,557 $15,991 Big Stone Gap $1,725 -80% 3 $575 $1,007,843 A Royal Night Out $1,637 -96% 3 $546 $226,020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) Reposted from last night: Quote Alright I'm home (NYC and back again is always fun). Some confusion: Quote Breaking down that 3D number we see 28% traditional 3D, Imax at 12% and 3D PLF at 7%. RealD 3D accounted for an estimated $78M of Force Awakens’ weekend at the bulk of its 14K screen supply. Of that RealD PLF hubs made $15M. Force Awakens in Imax stateside beat JW, $30.1M to $20.9M, at 391 sites. Per screen was $77K with 7 of the top 10 and 15 of the top 20 domestic locations being IMAX engagements. Those grosses don't match those percentages. 12% IMAX, but 30.1M is 12% of 250M, so it doesn't work with any of the given estimates (238 or 241-246). 7% PLF, but 15M is 7% of 214.3M. Also, this makes me question the attendance record. See the bolded. Quote Of all the demo stats and audience scores that we’ve gone through over the last three days, the most telling were those from Rentrak’s PostTrak indicative of repeat business in the days to come: 88% responded that they would recommend Force Awakens to a friend while 54% said Episode VII exceeded their expectations while 42% said it met their expectations. Of those that watched the film earlier this weekend, 95% of those polled said they knew five people who were going to come out and watch Force Awakens in the days to come. Force Awakens denizens also spared no expense to see the movie: 38% spent between $13-$15 to see the film, while 29% shelled out $16-$18 a ticket Uhh, that's REALLY high. Even if the last 33% spent $5 to see the film (obviously super duper low), that's an average price of $11.90, and there's no way >22M occurred at that price. Also, more likely the last 33% spent about ~$10.00, which would put the average price at $13.55. At 250M that's only 18.5M tickets. The other side of the story would be that this is probably the norm for mega-openers; I HIGHLY doubt that they were running at the average ticket price on their OWs (TA/TDK/SM3/JW/AOU/etc.). This means that it may be the case that no film has ever actually cracked 20M tickets on OW...but as long as we use the same scale, we should have at least a decent grasp of how they make rank relatively. Quote In any case, quick ticket estimations based on: 53% 2D 28% RealD 3D 12% IMAX 7% PLF 238.0M OW 23.0M Tickets. Staying consistent with my old calculations this comes out as a higher estimate than TDK/SM3 (low 22M) and TA (high 21M). Age splits for TA/TDK were near 50/50. Age split for SM3 was 63% under 25, while TFA is 33% under 25, so that imbalance may equal them out (if I assume 50% of under 25 audience paid for children's tickets, SM3 is at 23.7M, TFA is at 23.9M). If it goes up to 245M with the same splits, attendance estimate goes up to 23.7M tickets, same children price assumption would put it up to 24.6M. If it goes up to 250M, same splits get it to 24.2M tickets, and child price adjustment gets it to 25.1M. If I estimate based on the grosses they provided: 114.9M 2D 78.0M RealD 3D 30.1M IMAX 15.0M PLF 238.0M OW 22.6M Tickets. Still highest estimate I'd have on record. With 245M (121.9M 2D, everything else the same) I get 23.4M. With 250M (126.9M 2D) I get 24.0M. Sometime soon I'm also planning on making a PLF price adjustment. There's a very clear argument in my mind to be made that the PLF average price has gone down as the format has grown in popularity/screen count. A lot of theaters have simply refitted some of their screens to create their own in-house PLF brand and the prices on those aren't nearly as relatively high as specialty premium formats were ~3-4 years ago when they started to become a thing. This should boost more recent blockbusters a bit ITO ticket sales. We're going to be on the high end. Edited December 21, 2015 by spizzer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 And giantcalbear I cannot get into my messages right now as I am travelling. But I don't need your money but. I know you are good for it so let's just call it even. All I need from you is for you to say nice call baumer. I will in return date merry christmas buddy and it was a fun bet 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) Avatar was never the attendance king of the current era, TFA should pass it on both fronts. Spizzer, I would only use the splits to calculate tickets since every other comparison is done with the annual average price. Edited December 21, 2015 by cory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Sw7 breaks the following new records Most days over 60 million ...2 Most days over 50 million...4 Most days over 40 is 4 for TA and 5 for 30 million 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Shorts Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 12 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said: I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of hate for this, but this movie doesn't deserve to beat Avatar. Unlike Star Wars, Avatar was built on pure word of mouth, almost no hype upon release. TFA is from a franchise continuing from a 40 year legacy, hype was inevitable. What Avatar did is to be respected in my opinion. Avatar most definitely had hype! It was James Cameron after all! Only thing that stopped Avatar from crossing 100m OW was the mother of all snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 9 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said: I'm sure I'm going to get a lot of hate for this, but this movie doesn't deserve to beat Avatar. Unlike Star Wars, Avatar was built on pure word of mouth, almost no hype upon release. TFA is from a franchise continuing from a 40 year legacy, hype was inevitable. What Avatar did is to be respected in my opinion. So people should stop seeing it so Avatar can win? Star Wars is life to a lot of people. I know it sounds crazy but it's true. If they want to shell out their coins to make the movie a success then so be it. That's just how big the brand is. Takes nothing away from what Avatar accomplished. I am in awe of all of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: This sucker's gonna be past 700m after New Year's weekend. Holy. Shit. 1B is possible, which is just unfucking believable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 6 minutes ago, DarthOpeningGross said: Well, that's because Star Wars' box office grosses are not a major driver of Disney's stock price. It's comical to see these articles titled "why is disney stock price dropping as Star Wars does record box office?" Disney's revenue is about $45B -- Star Wars' grosses and merchandise this year might account for, max, 10% of its revenue. Not anything to sniff at, but Disney stock is driven by much more important things like ESPN subscriptions (ESPN is presently valued at $50B, that should put the value of Star Wars to the entire Disney company in perspective), anti-trust issues in Europe, global revenue from theme parks (account for about $15B or 1/3 of gross revenue for Disney), and so forth. Yeah I've stated this too multiple times, sell the news on the release is the catalyst today though. There is nothing else other than a downgrade which happened Friday morning. It happens all the time, the cable unit & theme parks are definitely more important than SW BUT leveraging SW into all of that media is a huge boom for their properties right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I think the only thing we may see it do differently is that maybe it doesn't stay flat Mon-Wed? But it at this point who the fuck knows?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 TheWrap @TheWrap 3 mins3 minutes ago 'Bad Santa 2' Gets Release Date from Broad Green, Miramax http://goo.gl/N852Jc Billy Bob Thornton‘s “Bad Santa 2” will come down the chimney on November 23, 2016, Broad Green and partner Miramax said Monday. Room (2015) $180,192 -32% 171 -27 $1,054 $4,542,056 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, Jim Shorts said: Avatar most definitely had hype! It was James Cameron after all! Only thing that stopped Avatar from crossing 100m OW was the mother of all snowstorms. Nope, that one came a month and a half later, remember? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 7 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Avatar was always going to be toppled just like Titanic before & TFA after it will be. It's the nature of inflation & media using unadjusted totals. It all depends on how you want to evaluate performance. No one ever talks about GWTW as the domestic champ & that's because it's time period isn't relevant today (plus they re-released it like 20 times lol). You have to evaluate the bigger picture, Avatar making the December record then going to have a 10x multiplier in 2009-10 could be argued easily as impressive as Titanic 20x multiplier in 1997-8. TFA will need more admissions than Avatar to reach $761m due to Avatar's insane 3D share. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Will this pass attendance of the original movies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 So, so far, all 3 200M OW grossers all went up from estimates. Kinda a nice thought. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looking at BOM records page, it's hilarious how even yesterday's 3-day estimate is higher than JW's 4 day record. With a 247m OW, it'll only need 31m today to beat what JW had through 6 days (also a record). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 1 minute ago, FilmBuff said: Will this pass attendance of the original movies? It has a shot at Empire & Jedi, but Menace would be a stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Lucas screwed up a bit or his accountant did. Should've gotten at least $5-$10b out of Disney. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
