JonathanLB Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I want to keep posting here, it would be fun! I love following the box office, I just had no idea there was such a thriving community of people who actually cared. This forum is amazing! I would love to stick around. It's so much fun watching all of the big blockbusters and just see what happens. For instance, I was very surprised by AOU's performance. I would have definitely been wrong. I thought it would beat Avengers OW but fallen slightly short of the domestic total, say a $215M OW with a $575M total. Definitely it didn't quite deliver what a lot of people expected. Besides TFA this year, my favorite box office following this year was JW's opening weekend. I was in Hawaii on vacation at the time with my girlfriend and my dad. I had read $120M OW via Variety, predicted. Then on Friday suddenly I'm hearing $150M possible. This keeps changing throughout the weekend and I'm updating my dad, his girlfriend, and my girlfriend, and pretty soon I am like, "I can't believe this... but... it appears JW may actually take the all time opening weekend record! Unreal." It was definitely a monstrous performance and totally out of nowhere. The box office is so much fun to follow! But I guess we're weird like that. Most people probably don't care. I think it's more logical than sports, though. I love sports (NFL, NBA, and MLB mainly), but think about it, all I can do is put on my jersey, yell at the TV, or go to a game and cheer on my team, and that's about it. If (ok, when) TFA beats Avatar in the U.S., I can say I suited up and played for my team! I've seen TFA 6 times (LOL, yeah), so at least when the movie takes #1 I can say I made a difference. A tiny difference, yes, but I was part of the cultural phenomenon. This forum, though, makes following so much more fun. It explodes when Rth comes in with an update and I can barely keep up with just reading your guys' posts! 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 19 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: I'm new to this forum as well but I feel kind of weird because I have lurked over here for quite some time. Welcome out of lurkdom. Nice call on the OD. A prediction like that means you certainly should be playing the Derby. http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Spoiler Yes... I'm a Derby Whore 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 10 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said: Welcome out of lurkdom. Nice call on the OD. A prediction like that means you certainly should be playing the Derby. http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Reveal hidden contents Yes... I'm a Derby Whore Nice , pimping the derby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 8 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said: Welcome out of lurkdom. Nice call on the OD. A prediction like that means you certainly should be playing the Derby. http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx Reveal hidden contents Yes... I'm a Derby Whore Well my thinking was Harry Potter's previews were incredibly insane, but I didn't believe Harry Potter is more popular than SW and I also believed the 7 p.m. start would give Star Wars a big advantage, combined with higher ticket prices. That's why I felt $50M to $60M was the range. Then I did feel it would perform much like Potter on opening day, where previews were nearly half of the total. That's kind of how I arrived at that number. I'll be honest I wasn't sure what to think of OW because since I thought it may reach $115-125M OD, I was having trouble coming up with numbers that DIDN'T reach $250M for OW, but I kept thinking, "No. No, not in December. That can't happen, even with Star Wars." So I just kind of gave up figuring out a full weekend total and thought, I must be wrong on the previews and opening day, maybe it really will be only like $85M combined OD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 3 hours ago, No Prisoners said: you must remember its SW7, the normal drop rule will not apply. Avatar dropped 33% Movies skewing younger usually drop over 40% Many movies skewing older have dropped just 10-25% This sewed heavily over 25. Many people getting the day off or half day off for the first time this week. A 15-25% drop is in order. It has a very good shot at 30m+. I feel good about this one I will give a $10 BOTF gift certificate if doesn't clear $30m on the 24th to the first person that replies to this post. I really really like the idea of betting (I never bet) and gifting BOT gifts, donations or a month (no abo here!) worth of an account. Bravo! 3 hours ago, No Prisoners said: youre first and you cant lose tomorrow. Either SW7 pulls in 30m+ and the craziness goes on with BO watch or you can upgrade to premium, change your name and go batshit crazy with likes The BO reports will still be insane regardless The 'Like' crazyness is IMHO only possible via the Gold Account = 500 likes per (rolling I think) 24h Premium 150 "Likes" Per Day Ad-Free Viewing Custom Avatar Custom Member Title Custom Signature Personal Blog Ability to send Private Chats to members in Chat Room Add Events to Community Calender Special Forum Access PM Box Increased to 100 Gold 500 "Likes" a Day Ad-Free Viewing Custom Avatar Custom Member Title Custom Signature Personal Blog Ability to send Private Chats to members in Chat Room Access to Special Forum Upload Images to Gallery Add Events to Community Calender PM Box Increased to 150 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 9 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: Well my thinking was Harry Potter's previews were incredibly insane, but I didn't believe Harry Potter is more popular than SW and I also believed the 7 p.m. start would give Star Wars a big advantage, combined with higher ticket prices. That's why I felt $50M to $60M was the range. Then I did feel it would perform much like Potter on opening day, where previews were nearly half of the total. That's kind of how I arrived at that number. I'll be honest I wasn't sure what to think of OW because since I thought it may reach $115-125M OD, I was having trouble coming up with numbers that DIDN'T reach $250M for OW, but I kept thinking, "No. No, not in December. That can't happen, even with Star Wars." So I just kind of gave up figuring out a full weekend total and thought, I must be wrong on the previews and opening day, maybe it really will be only like $85M combined OD. have a lot of fun here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somebody85 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 45 minutes ago, Kalel009Shel said: Lol popcorn films that carbon copy greatness will never match the feats of titanic or avatar. Lol. With all the hype, sws failed to beat jps os opening. Epic fail. Needed that domestic and more territories and running at more times to even squeeze by jps ww opening record .Best look at the whole picture. Lol. Avatar and titanic hold ww. Meltdowns are going to be epic when Avatar 2 takes the domestic and ww maxes even further in 2017. Can carry 2 beat force awakens by 1.5 to 2b plus overall is going to be the question. Love it Can dream even keep the momentum after force awakens. Lol. Better wakeup my crazy Jedi's. Carbon copy greatness?! You mean the amazing Avatar that ripped off Pocahontas and Fern Gully? ahahahaha hahahaha hahahahahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
straggler Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Not much to be impressed by honestly. Phantom Menance made over $700 million in the US adjusted and that movie had a very mixed response. This one has better reviews, is the continuation of the classic Star Wars story and has a huge nostalgia factor. Unless this film was a Fantastic Four 2 level disaster, it was destined to do extremely well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeyItsMoses Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I know CJ thinks that $26m is the ceiling, but there's a really really good chance this does over $30m on Thursday...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 2 minutes ago, straggler said: Not much to be impressed by honestly. Phantom Menance made over $700 million in the US adjusted and that movie had a very mixed response. This one has better reviews, is the continuation of the classic Star Wars story and has a huge nostalgia factor. Unless this film was a Fantastic Four 2 level disaster, it was destined to do extremely well. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm not getting my hopes up on Thursday. I was just hoping for $20M after I saw Monday's number. Now, I guess, I would hope for maybe $24m? I don't expect much out of it. I noticed my local theaters close a bit early, although I did see the latest show is Star Wars at 9 p.m. That's not TOO early, actually. Most of the other final showings are 7-8 p.m. though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
straggler Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 2 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said: Not a criticism but geez its a freaking Star Wars film doing well at the box office. If JW is making $650 million than Star Wars was going to blast off unless it was a complete trainwreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaldun Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 38 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said: You know what's funny is Kal literally believes everything he posts. Come on, he can't fully believe it. Soon he'll say SW will stop at 200M$ (yes it will lose money) 30 minutes ago, somebody85 said: Oh wow and you think Avatar has a stronger fan base then freaking Star Wars. I actually think that if Avatar 2 went head to head with Star Wars, and doesn't feature amazing new technology that Episode 8 would get way more media exposure and attention. It would end up deflating it, making much less of an event then it was before. I would just love to see an Avatar 2 vs Star Wars 8 fight to be honest. Obviously it won't happen, companies aren't dumb and both movies would suffer but that would be such fun to follow. And yeah Star Wars would won in media exposure, attention and box-office probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 6 minutes ago, HeyItsMoses said: I know CJ thinks that $26m is the ceiling, but there's a really really good chance this does over $30m on Thursday...right? No, it's gonna fall 30-35%. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 2 minutes ago, straggler said: Not a criticism but geez its a freaking Star Wars film doing well at the box office. If JW is making $650 million than Star Wars was going to blast off unless it was a complete trainwreck. If only you would've made a prediction beforehand. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 So 363m after 6 days isn't impressive? Interesting... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killimano3 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Avatar must be the movie with the most forgotten lead out of any massive film. I mean sure some huge movies don't have the most memorable lead actors but seriously I don't think there was a point when anybody recognized Sam Worthington for his role lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
straggler Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: If only you would've made a prediction beforehand. Predicting the performance of the first Star Wars would have been a feat. This one not so much. Would I have predicted a $247 million opening weekend before reviews? No. But once the film was well received (the if factor) then the sky is the limit. Now this will beat Avatar. Edited December 24, 2015 by straggler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Based on the mid-week figures, or, let's say, Wednesday, what would be a typical number to expect then on X-Mas based on some other releases around this time? Has anyone made that comparison? I was just curious if anyone has a range from lowest to highest they imagine for X-Mas day, and what that means for the weekend. The figures released previously indicated $40-50M of the total $100M pre-sales announced Tuesday before release were NOT for opening weekend, with 3rd place being X-Mas day, so it would be interesting to see how X-Mas performs given that. I also wonder then how the movie will do Saturday versus Christmas. I would imagine increase, as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
straggler Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 4 minutes ago, blackspider said: So 363m after 6 days isn't impressive? Interesting... If Phantom Menance can make $700 million, then no. As long as this wasn't Attack of the Clones and didn't have Jar Jar Binks and had a competent director this was going to do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
