Wednesday Star Wars TFA ACTUALS - 38,022,183

[ChiSoxRox]

Going back to the percentage of the monthly gross, by calendar gross:

 

May 2012: Avengers, 52.0%

Dec. 2015 - TFA, 47.8%

April 2015: Furious 7, 41.7%

June 2015: Jurassic World, 41.7%

 

(this data goes back to 1982 but before movies were more evenly spaced I suppose)

 

I expect TFA to win this record easily as it keeps doing multiples of anything else.

Edited December 24, 2015 by ChiSoxRox

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

I'm new to this forum as well but I feel kind of weird because I have lurked over here for quite some time. Not ridiculously long, but at least a few weeks to see what you guys had to say. It's true, the real box office experts are here, not in the media. Most of the media people truly have no clue. I have been a box office follower since Star Wars: Special Edition and Titanic in 1997, and been interested ever since. I'm a Star Wars fan boy, so don't hold that against me, but I've written two books on Star Wars (non-fiction, with box office chapters for domestic and international in each): Anticipation: The Real Life Story of Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace and Revenge: The Real Life Story of Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith. Both focus on the cultural impact of the films from toy sales to fan culture to merchandising to box office, special effects, and beyond. Although I AM a prequel fan (we can agree not to discuss that LOL, don't hate me!), the books don't focus whatsoever on the films from a critical standpoint. They truly are just books about the events of the movies, i.e. what impact they made.

 

Beyond that, I'm no Rth, but I am a member of the Director's Guild of America, where I joined on my feature film Amy Alyson Fans (on iTunes, Amazon, etc.) that I wrote and directed. As such, I get sent screeners for all of the awards films every year at the end, so sometimes I am able to see these films before they get released wide like The Hateful Eight, The Revenant, last year American Sniper, etc. 

 

I feel like I know a lot of you guys already and I have never posted here. I love reading your posts. I know it sounds crazy but I've probably averaged 1-2 hours per day on this forum for weeks. If not even 3 hours some days, waiting for Rth's updates, laughing at Kal, you know, the usual. I'm looking forward to joining the community and hanging around too! This TFA run is something special so far and I just am... blown away. When TPM came out, I was only 16, so I was a total fanboy with almost zero box office knowledge. I had no idea how historic Titanic was, so I kept rooting for TPM to win, even though that simply wasn't realistic. Titanic was a monster. I remember always hoping for better numbers than came in, even though TPM honestly had a great box office run with very strong legs! Now, though, I keep being wrong in the best possible way. 

 

I predicted OD total of $125M, which I know is very high, and it came in just a few million below my prediction. I figured on $60M previews, $65M regular day, so I was very close and that was my *optimistic* prediction. As in, the ceiling. I thought anything around $100M would be amazing. My OW prediction realistically was no more than $225M. I was blown away when it hit $248M. Mid-week, I was hoping for $100M total, figuring on $28.5M per day until X-Mas eve with the remaining $16M or so. These mid-week numbers boggle my mind. I didn't expect this in my wildest dreams. It's ridiculous. 

 

Thanks for the great posts you guys provide and for the information best found on this forum. 

Hey man welcome (officially) to the Forums  I (like you) lurked around here for quite some time before I joined, and felt like I knew people like Tele, CJohn, Kalo, Empire, Ethan, Keli etc before I joined. It's a really great community and I hope you enjoy it here!

[tokila]

Oh. I feel like I should add that even the might Titanic fell on CMas eve by 40%. Anything over 23 million tomorrow would be wonderful IMO. 

[Killimano3]

 Ppl are talking about this getting the first run attendance record from Titanic but how much would it ACTUALLY need to make to do that considering there are factors like 3D that need to be accounted for on top of it making a billion domestically

[JonathanLB]

9 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

@JonathanLB Welcom to the forums and it's really cool to have a member of the director's guild here...also cool that you have written two books.  Tele too works in the industry.  As for me, on a much much much lower level, I have written a book as well, not about film but a fictional novel.  Just throwing that out there.  So welcome aboard.

 

I think today it falls a typical Avatar like 32-35% but the weekend numbers are going to be ridiculous.  It's going to be nutty tracking it this weekend.

 

As for Kal, guys, the best thing to do is ignore him.  Yesterday I made a post where I told you he would do exactly what he is doing right now.  He'd talk admissions, gender gap, 4 quad and Avatar 2.  You can't win with him.  Just look at him as being Obi Wan from SW and we are all Vader.  Even if we strike him down with logic he becomes more powerfuil that you could possibly imagine because then he starts making up shit.  Just don't respond to his lunacy and maybe he'll go away.

 

That's awesome! I love writing but I don't think I could ever write a novel. I have always loved non-fiction because I'm a stickler for details and research. Then, I enjoy writing screenplays because I don't need to write the flowery descriptions or emotions of my characters. It's just what is seen on screen and what they say. Leave it up to the production designer if I say, "Luxurious nightclub," they can figure out the details! LOL. 

 

I no longer live in Los Angeles, which I didn't really enjoy, but one thing I did like was seeing free movies at the DGA. My highlight there was probably seeing The Town with a Q&A session with Ben Affleck after the screening. That was really fun. My movie also played at the DGA as its second industry screening. The first was at Sony for cast and crew (our premiere). Just a small indie film, but it was tons of fun and a dream come true for me to be able to do that and really get an understanding for how movies are made (at least on a smaller scale). 

 

A 35% decline for X-Mas eve would still be quite solid, I would think. I can't believe the mid-week performance. On TheForce.net, I posted Sunday night that the floor was $85M for Monday - Thursday and the ceiling was $125M. Whoops! I mean, really, who saw this coming? I was honestly hoping for $100M and thought maybe I was being too optimistic. What a box office run so far.

[AndyLL]

1 minute ago, tokila said:

Oh. I feel like I should add that even the might Titanic fell on CMas eve by 40%. Anything over 23 million tomorrow would be wonderful IMO. 

 

I keep forgetting that tomorrow ( today? ) is Christmas Eve.

 

You know... I'd love to go out tomorrow and eat and see TFA again.   Can't because the wife is working. ( I was told I can't go without her )

 

I'm wondering since stores tend to close early on Christmas Eve if more people than normal might go see TFA in the evening?

 

It'll drop but maybe not the typical drop.

[JonathanLB]

So am I getting this correct that the biggest non-Star Wars December day was The Hobbit at $37.1M? That would mean currently if this estimate holds for Wednesday, it's likely TFA has the top 6 biggest December days of all time and by the end of the weekend it's highly likely it has the top 9 December days. So, basically, if you had a chart with the Top 10 Biggest December Days it's just pretty much a list of days that TFA played.

[blackspider]

13 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

 Ppl are talking about this getting the first run attendance record from Titanic but how much would it ACTUALLY need to make to do that considering there are factors like 3D that need to be accounted for on top of it making a billion domestically

 

Probably around 1.2-1.3B. I think people are just referencing BOM's adjusted list which does not really take in account of 3D and other ticketing surcharges. However, in my book getting to 1B is beating Titanic through and through due to how different the BO landscape has changed since '97.

[The Stingray]

Man, I have absolutely no idea how this will perform next week. It can't possibly behave like Avatar, can it?
 

[miketheavenger]

How the fuck can this movie STAY FLAT or maybe even INCREASE from the biggest Tuesday ever?????

Edited December 24, 2015 by miketheavenger

[baumer]

For me personally this is the most excited I have been following box office since I started posting on the forums back in 2002. Avatars Run was fun but I was never emotionally invested in that movie. But this run 6 days into it is just epic. It's going to be so incredibly intense and fun following it over the next two months.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

2 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

For me personally this is the most excited I have been following box office since I started posting on the forums back in 2002. Avatars Run was fun but I was never emotionally invested in that movie. But this run 6 days into it is just a pic. It's going to be so incredibly intense and fun following it over the next two months.

 

After missing out on the first four years of the original forum, which included films like Spider-Man 1 & 2, ROTS and DMC, I'm so happy I can share this with you...my brother from another mother. 

[tokila]

3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

For me personally this is the most excited I have been following box office since I started posting on the forums back in 2002. Avatars Run was fun but I was never emotionally invested in that movie. But this run 6 days into it is just a pic. It's going to be so incredibly intense and fun following it over the next two months.

I feel you on this. Avatar was fun just do to how weird it was, and the fact no one had come close to Titanic in 13 years at that point. I liked it, but I was not personally invested in it. 

 

I have loved Star Wars since I was a kid. Seeing a movie of the franchise I love doing this is so much more gratifying. It also has that feel of a return to a rightful place. Star Wars started it. Now TFA is taking it back. Add in the fact this is going to add another 20 years (all the new kids falling in love with it) to the franchises lifespan makes it even more sweet. 

 

I also love the lack of pressure here. Barring a epic collapse it will take out Avatar. Its so much more fun when it becomes a simply how high can it go debate. 

[baumer]

Cant believe its Christmas Eve. 

[vc2002]

10 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

For me personally this is the most excited I have been following box office since I started posting on the forums back in 2002. Avatars Run was fun but I was never emotionally invested in that movie. But this run 6 days into it is just a pic. It's going to be so incredibly intense and fun following it over the next two months.

 

Why let you movie opinion decide your boxoffice opinion? They're two different things aren't they?  Why not enjoy the boxoffice run for what it is?

Edited December 24, 2015 by vc2002

[baumer]

Btw....domestically

 

Avatar is done

800 is done

900 is set to fall

a billion is very very very likely

 

I cant go past that. My brain is fried just thinking about the numbers.

 

WW..... I can't analyze it properly right now but all I can tell you is that based on what the international markets have been doing this past week 2 billion is a foregone conclusion and that is without China. If China does very well all bets are off and we really could be talking about avatar world wide.

[baumer]

@vc2002 because when u love something and it does well you feel that much more gratified. When u dont love it u just appreciate it.....big difference.

[Shaldun]

1 hour ago, vc2002 said:

So free London transports rides for evryone who saw Star Wars, yeah ! Oh there's still the penalty fare, not fun ! 

 

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

I was a fan of Avatar actually. Don't get me wrong, the plot is pretty formulaic and it's nothing special as far as the overall story and characters (could there be more 2 dimensional villains? Yikes!), but as pure adventure and visual spectacle, Avatar was amazing! If you can forgive its flaws, and just enjoy the journey and sense of adventure, especially in the incredibly well done 3D we saw in theaters, then you can certainly enjoy the movie for what it is. I actually saw Avatar 3 times in theaters. Even my 60-something aunt and uncle saw Avatar and loved it. That type of broad appeal helped it to its grosses combined with 3D. I'm not rooting against Avatar, I'm rooting for Star Wars.

 

I would be rooting against Titanic, though. Sorry. Was annoyed when Titanic beat ANH and was annoyed when it beat LA Confidential at the Oscars that year. Nobody cares about Titanic or talks about it now days except with box office related topics. I respect its incredible achievements at the box office and the remarkable run it had, but I'll be ecstatic to see Star Wars pass Titanic, unadjusted or not, still it will be a great moment.

Yeah Avatar was fun and a good movie.  I think it was similar to Star Wars (the original) in a way : make you travel to a new exciting world for fun adventures and a classic story retold in a new way (which Star Wars is too let's be honest). It didn't have the durable impact of the Galaxy Far Far Away though.  

 

52 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said:

 

I keep forgetting that tomorrow ( today? ) is Christmas Eve.

 

You know... I'd love to go out tomorrow and eat and see TFA again.   Can't because the wife is working. ( I was told I can't go without her )

 

I'm wondering since stores tend to close early on Christmas Eve if more people than normal might go see TFA in the evening?

 

It'll drop but maybe not the typical drop.

I guess you have to divorce now. 

 

Seriously though, don't cinemas close earlier too for Christmas Eve ? They do in France at least. They'll do very little business in the evening anyway.

[Clef Ment]

4 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

Btw....domestically

 

Avatar is done

800 is done

900 is set to fall

a billion is very very very likely

 

I cant go past that. My brain is fried just thinking about the numbers.

 

WW..... I can't analyze it properly right now but all I can tell you is that based on what the international markets have been doing this past week 2 billion is a foregone conclusion and that is without China. If China does very well all bets are off and we really could be talking about avatar world wide.

 

I am a bit worried about China.

 

It won't bomb by any means, but it might not do extraordinary numbers.

 

Anyway I can't wait to see it here, but need to wait January 9.

Edited December 24, 2015 by Clef Ment

[Ajipon]

4 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

 

Why let you movie opinion decide your boxoffice opinion? They're two different things aren't they?  Why not enjoy the boxoffice run for what it is?

Because we're human with emotional investment after all? You have to be suspicious of anyone who claims to be unbiased and completely objective. The best opinion makers are the ones who are honest to oneself and others about personal biases.