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Monday SW:TFA Estimate - 31.4M (-27%)

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21 minutes ago, James said:

Bring it on:P

 

Wait, I don't think you can change your name, can you?  If you can't, I'll get Tele to do it for a week.

 

Name change:  baumerbestusbros

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16 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

I'm not one to make these comparisons...I find them kind of arbitrary in a way, but for the hell of it:

 

Here are the opening weekend record holders dating back to 1997 when Jurassic Park 2 did it, and the multipliers they had:

 

Jurassic Park 2 (1997) 3.18X

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) 3.51X

Spider-man (2002): 3.53X

Spider-man 3 (2007) 2.22X

The Dark Knight (2008) 3.37X

The Avengers (2012) 3X

Jurassic World (2015) 3.13X

Star Wars The Force Awakens (2015) 2.31X and counting.

 

So as you can see here, when a film opens to a record opening weekend, legs have never been enormous and for obvious reason.  It burns off so much demand up front that getting to a 4X is very very difficult.  So giving SW the best multiplier here, you come up with 872 million.  IMHO, that is the floor, that number is locked.  It will certainly have at least the same multiplier as the original Spider-man.  It has already surpassed the lowest multiplier, that being Spider-man 3.  So there's no worries there.I personally think this is something special and that it will eclipse the billion mark and it might just set a record that won't be touched for a very, very long time.  If this gets a 4 multiplier, coming off a record opening weekend, that will be so difficult to match.  And does anyone here really think it won't hit 900 million?  It will more than likely be just shy of Avatar after Sunday.  That leaves it about 150 million shy of 900 million, a number that will most certainly be passed.  

 

This is history here folks.  And it's true, all of.

 

 

 

 

 

You forgot Dead Man's Chest. (2006) 3.12X

 

Amlost exactly the same as JW's. 

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29 minutes ago, Rth said:

looking couple hours ago figuring it being 28.5-29.6, think which range most seem to be thinking

 

 28.5 translates into a 11% drop, basically.

 

Hope it's going for the upper section of that range!

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3 hours ago, Baumer Fett said:

I'm not one to make these comparisons...I find them kind of arbitrary in a way, but for the hell of it:

 

Here are the opening weekend record holders dating back to 1997 when Jurassic Park 2 did it, and the multipliers they had:

 

Jurassic Park 2 (1997) 3.18X

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) 3.51X

Spider-man (2002): 3.53X

Spider-man 3 (2007) 2.22X

The Dark Knight (2008) 3.37X

The Avengers (2012) 3X

Jurassic World (2015) 3.13X

Star Wars The Force Awakens (2015) 2.31X and counting.

 

So as you can see here, when a film opens to a record opening weekend, legs have never been enormous and for obvious reason.  It burns off so much demand up front that getting to a 4X is very very difficult.  So giving SW the best multiplier here, you come up with 872 million.  IMHO, that is the floor, that number is locked.  It will certainly have at least the same multiplier as the original Spider-man.  It has already surpassed the lowest multiplier, that being Spider-man 3.  So there's no worries there.I personally think this is something special and that it will eclipse the billion mark and it might just set a record that won't be touched for a very, very long time.  If this gets a 4 multiplier, coming off a record opening weekend, that will be so difficult to match.  And does anyone here really think it won't hit 900 million?  It will more than likely be just shy of Avatar after Sunday.  That leaves it about 150 million shy of 900 million, a number that will most certainly be passed.  

 

This is history here folks.  And it's true, all of.

 

 

 

 

 

Isn't it true though that all those OW record holders opened in Summer or not-December? We might have been blinded by the amazing 247m OW of TFA, forgetting that this is a December number. Maybe, just maybe, if this were to open in the summer, it would've been another unfathomable number. Then the multiplier would've reflected those OW record holders much more.

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3 hours ago, Baumer Fett said:

I'm not one to make these comparisons...I find them kind of arbitrary in a way, but for the hell of it:

 

Here are the opening weekend record holders dating back to 1997 when Jurassic Park 2 did it, and the multipliers they had:

 

Jurassic Park 2 (1997) 3.18X

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) 3.51X

Spider-man (2002): 3.53X

Spider-man 3 (2007) 2.22X

The Dark Knight (2008) 3.37X

The Avengers (2012) 3X

Jurassic World (2015) 3.13X

Star Wars The Force Awakens (2015) 2.31X and counting.

 

So as you can see here, when a film opens to a record opening weekend, legs have never been enormous and for obvious reason.  It burns off so much demand up front that getting to a 4X is very very difficult.  So giving SW the best multiplier here, you come up with 872 million.  IMHO, that is the floor, that number is locked.  It will certainly have at least the same multiplier as the original Spider-man.  It has already surpassed the lowest multiplier, that being Spider-man 3.  So there's no worries there.I personally think this is something special and that it will eclipse the billion mark and it might just set a record that won't be touched for a very, very long time.  If this gets a 4 multiplier, coming off a record opening weekend, that will be so difficult to match.  And does anyone here really think it won't hit 900 million?  It will more than likely be just shy of Avatar after Sunday.  That leaves it about 150 million shy of 900 million, a number that will most certainly be passed.  

 

This is history here folks.  And it's true, all of.

Your chart gave me an idea Baumer Fett. I looked back at the last 10 OW record setters. Here's where they ended up on the all time Domestic list when they were done:

Spider-Man 3 #15
The Dark Knight #2
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 #13
The Hunger Games #13
Marvel's The Avengers #3
The Dark Knight Rises #7
Iron Man 3 #14
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire #10
Avengers: Age of Ultron #9
Jurassic World #3

 

TFA will be the first to take the domestic crown. We're in uncharted territory. No other OW record holder has had a run like this. This is one of the reasons I think $1B DOM is in play.

 

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9 hours ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

I think only one person has ever run out of likes with a Gold account, and that was Blanks. 

I've ran out three or four times tbh. Giving out so many likes is super time consuming tho

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Okay, I'll get tele to do it.

 

Are you a Russell Peter's fan James?

 

bestus bros is from one of his stand ups when he talks about Euro males liking club music...."It's bestus bros...bestus..."

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7 hours ago, Blan Solo said:

I've ran out three or four times tbh. Giving out so many likes is super time consuming tho

 

ironically, I ran out of likes before I could like this post :P 

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