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Monday SW:TFA Estimate - 31.4M (-27%)

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1 hour ago, Daxtreme said:

I just wanna point out that Star Wars dropped only 0.4% more than Titanic on pretty much the same Monday (Dec 28 vs Dec 29), so it doesn't mean that it doesn't hold like Avatar that it's a bad hold.

 

Also, 1B club, where? I wanna join that :P

 

Don't see how this is relavent considering Titanic made only 110mil in December, it made more in Jan and Feb and 90-100 mil in March.

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Amazing number for TFA, $31,4 on it's SECOND monday, simply amazing. It fell much harder than Avatar (but gross way more), it will not hold like avatar but it's not collapsing at all. It will have an +$90 third weekend for sure. 

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Just now, IronJimbo said:

 

Don't see how this is relavent considering Titanic made only 110mil in December, it made more in Jan and Feb and 90-100 mil in March.

 

Titanic, the movie best known for its legendary holds and breaking all sorts of records, is irrelevant when talking about another movie breaking all kinds of records and that's also having great holds?

 

Right.

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51 minutes ago, #ED2-D2 said:

 

Simple.

 

A few of us predict this weekends TFA gross.

 

Entry = $5

Predict weekend gross

Closest prediction wins(You keep

your $5)

Losers all donate $5 to the forums.

 

So far...

 

#ED

Tele

 

 

 

I'm in.

 

I'll make my prediction after Thursday number comes in.

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SW's huge run is already monotonous in a way.

 

Either way, just watched this little movie called Scenic Route starring Josh Duhamel. I am stunned by how incredibly much I liked it. It had everything you can hope for and that ending... Too bad it's a 2013 movie, because I'd put it on no. 1 on the list of best movies I've seen this year. 

 

It's weird, but lately I find myself enjoying more this type of indie/drama movies than blockbusters. I can't even remember a blockbuster in the last 2 or 3 years that got to me like Scenic Route or Everest did.  

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1 hour ago, Baumer Fett said:

And as for post holidays, we have no idea what it will do.  Many are predicting steep declines during the week, but maybe it won't.  

 

TFA could suffer week to week drops of about 2/3rds from this week's weekdays to next week's weekdays and it would still pull in almost $40M next Monday to Thursday.

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3 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Titanic, the movie best known for its legendary holds and breaking all sorts of records, is irrelevant when talking about another movie breaking all kinds of records and that's also having great holds?

 

Right.

 

There is around 0% chance that TFA starts picking up pace and has a higher per day average in Jan than December.

 

The way the films made the money is too different, Star Wars is front loaded franchise nuke while Titanic was a slowburning firestorm.

 

Sure you can argue the schematics of "what does relavent mean" but lets not get silly. All I meant was the numbers really don't much if any link at all.

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If SW7 holds as well as Avatar, it'll make 2BN.

 

If SW7 holds as well as Titanic, it'll make 4BN.

 

The movie opened to a fucking 250m, of cause I wont hold as well as a 78m opener let alone a 28m one. Seriously, I don't get these comparisons. The only connection between Avatar Titanic and SW7 is that they all became the DOM king. The real comparison we should be searching for, if we want to compare the legs, should be alltime OW record breakers.

 

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1 hour ago, #ED2-D2 said:

 

Simple.

 

A few of us predict this weekends TFA gross.

 

Entry = $5

Predict weekend gross

Closest prediction wins(You keep

your $5)

Losers all donate $5 to the forums.

 

So far...

 

#ED

Tele

 

 

 

So #ED can make a Star Wars contest thread and I can't :apocalypse:

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26 minutes ago, James said:

SW's huge run is already monotonous in a way.

 

Either way, just watched this little movie called Scenic Route starring Josh Duhamel. I am stunned by how incredibly much I liked it. It had everything you can hope for and that ending... Too bad it's a 2013 movie, because I'd put it on no. 1 on the list of best movies I've seen this year. 

 

It's weird, but lately I find myself enjoying more this type of indie/drama movies than blockbusters. I can't even remember a blockbuster in the last 2 or 3 years that got to me like Scenic Route or Everest did.  

 

BTW...you owe me a name change. :)

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1 hour ago, #ED2-D2 said:

 

Simple.

 

A few of us predict this weekends TFA gross.

 

Entry = $5

Predict weekend gross

Closest prediction wins(You keep

your $5)

Losers all donate $5 to the forums.

 

So far...

 

#ED

Tele

 

 

What the hey...I can handle five bucks, and at least I'll be throwing something towards the forums.  Unless of course I somehow win.  Eh ehehehehe.

I'm in.

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I'm not one to make these comparisons...I find them kind of arbitrary in a way, but for the hell of it:

 

Here are the opening weekend record holders dating back to 1997 when Jurassic Park 2 did it, and the multipliers they had:

 

Jurassic Park 2 (1997) 3.18X

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) 3.51X

Spider-man (2002): 3.53X

Spider-man 3 (2007) 2.22X

The Dark Knight (2008) 3.37X

The Avengers (2012) 3X

Jurassic World (2015) 3.13X

Star Wars The Force Awakens (2015) 2.31X and counting.

 

So as you can see here, when a film opens to a record opening weekend, legs have never been enormous and for obvious reason.  It burns off so much demand up front that getting to a 4X is very very difficult.  So giving SW the best multiplier here, you come up with 872 million.  IMHO, that is the floor, that number is locked.  It will certainly have at least the same multiplier as the original Spider-man.  It has already surpassed the lowest multiplier, that being Spider-man 3.  So there's no worries there.I personally think this is something special and that it will eclipse the billion mark and it might just set a record that won't be touched for a very, very long time.  If this gets a 4 multiplier, coming off a record opening weekend, that will be so difficult to match.  And does anyone here really think it won't hit 900 million?  It will more than likely be just shy of Avatar after Sunday.  That leaves it about 150 million shy of 900 million, a number that will most certainly be passed.  

 

This is history here folks.  And it's true, all of.

 

 

 

 

 

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