Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Very good #. Hopefully a <10% drop today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just now, Jayhawk the Hutt said: Very good #. Hopefully a <10% drop today. IMO, it stays flat or increases by 1-3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 1B is a 4 multiplier, right ? Seems like a tall order though. 900m would already be an incredible performance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonenash Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 TFA 3002116 admissions for its second week ..... amazing hold. Nearly 7m admissions in two weeks the impossible "10millions" will be reach. I can't not beleive this, a SW movie over 10m 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just now, The Futurist said: 1B is a 4 multiplier, right ? Seems like a tall order though. 900m would already be an incredible performance. The best multiplier for a record opener is 3.51, I think. That would put SW at 865 million. We all know it's going to cruise past that. A 4X would put it in ridiculous territory and that multiplier, for a record weekend opener, might not be matched for a long long long time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Based on the past, i don't think it'll drop 10% on WED. Probably stay around flat, a very small + or -. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Harris Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Probably noted somewhere recently, but Harrison Ford will overtake Samuel L. Jackson as the highest grossing actor ever sometime this week. Ford's cumulative BO earnings will soon cross $4.6 billion to take the top spot from SLJ. Ford has appeared in 27 fewer movies than Jackson and has been the lead in a much higher percentage of his 41 films. I recall Ford holding this title for a long time after Last Crusade; good to see him back on top, even though I generally enjoy SLJ's work, also. But there's really never been a box-office draw quite like Ford before. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: IMO, it stays flat or increases by 1-3%. Wednesday surprised me last week by increasing so it very well could. I probably should listen to you, you've been pretty spot on reading the weekday grosses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Back over 30m one last weekday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 So with Deadline reporting 29.3 as the estimate - that has generally been within 50-100K - that would be an excellent Tuesday, a drop in line with Avatar's second week and TFA's first week. Given the slightly depressed ticket prices due to Discount Tuesday (I had a colleague take her whole family last week on Tuesday and get $5 tickets and so they decided to do it again last night) if it holds similar to Avatar 2nd Wednesday and TFA first Wednesday that would suggest a flat Wednesday (in a best case scenario even a little gain). More people should be off today than yesterday due to NYE being Thursday so I am hoping for a flat or slight increase (though the model i am using assumes a 5% decrease). I don't think 100 is anywhere close to locked for this weekend (or 1B total - have to wait to see how it performs after the holidays to get a sense of that - though that Tuesday ups my model's prediction to 987), though an aggressive model would make it quite possible. My conservative model currently has it at 90.9M this weekend after the 29.3 Tuesday(which incidentally would be the biggest weekend ever in Jan topping American Sniper). The fact we can have a legit discussion about $1B and it not be a farce is amazing. I'd give it about a 35-40% chance of making 1B DOM, but if it somewhere squeezes out a 100M weekend that might tip it over 50%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just now, Jayhawk the Hutt said: Wednesday surprised me last week by increasing so it very well could. I probably should listen to you, you've been pretty spot on reading the weekday grosses I just have theories. They have served me well thus far.....but who knows if I'm right or not...I just think that because the grosses are so big everyday, that the discounted Tuesday price brings the gross down and not up, simply because people aren't staying away on regular weekdays and then planning to go in bunches on Tuesday......this will of course change next Tuesday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 2 minutes ago, John Harris said: But there's really never been a box-office draw quite like Ford before. I don't know about that. He is Indy and Han Solo, those are the draw. He co-created (and acted) those roles, so he should be given credit for that, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 4 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: The best multiplier for a record opener is 3.51, I think. That would put SW at 865 million. We all know it's going to cruise past that. A 4X would put it in ridiculous territory and that multiplier, for a record weekend opener, might not be matched for a long long long time. But record breaking OW rarely happen in December. So we're in uncharted territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 19 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: Yea. Just didn't see if anybody here mentioned it. see p.9 Deadline = 7h ago, 1 or 2 pages later a repost of the same link, and I think your link too was mentioned. Not a critizm, I know how difficult it can be to 'work' through the BO threads to check for it, I missed myself too those posts from time to time... = only information as you seem to have - in way - asked about it. If interested: I sometimes find the post via the time stamp of the tweet = search for the page ~ the time, often those 'longed' for information often gets rather quickly posted, if not immediatly usually within the next 2 hours or so. There are always exceptions. If the discussion is lively ... sometimes a lot of pages to check. Mostly not so many. Have fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clef Ment Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I am a simple man, I just want a 100M third week-end and a 1B total. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Also keep in mind even though this will not stay in theaters nearly as long as Avatar- that has little effect on its final gross. Avatar's First run gross is 749.8 (they released a SE edition on Labor Day weekend that got 11M to get its final gross to 760). They basically left it in theaters forever even though it wasn't making any money It had 595.8 at the end of Jan (79.4% of gross). it made 286.9 in Jan At end of Feb it had 706.6 (94.2% of gross), if made 110.8 in Feb. At the end of Mar it had 741.1 (98.8% of gross) if made 34.5M in March At the end of April it had 746.8 (99.6% of gross) it made 5.7M in April The next 3 1/2 months it made another 3M. So even though TFA will likely exit theaters at end of march or in April as DVD comes out, it is only going to give up 2-3% of potential gross max. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Caught a matinee yesterday with a couple friends. Theater half full with lots of kids. It occurs to me that this movie plays incredibly well to children. Much better than Avatar did. In an empty family market place until the arrival of KFP3, this fact is bound to help the already unprecedented legs this movie is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Take away that massive $57m previews, TFA need (1000-57)/(247.9-57)=4.94x multiplier to reach $1b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Poor Warner, BvS is DOA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 12 minutes ago, grey ghost said: So we're in uncharted territory. Let me get this straight. The record for fastest to $600M was JP4, in 36 days. And now Star Wars is about to do it in 12 days. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
