Wednesday The Force Awakens Estimates - 28M (Rth) | 27.2 - 27.9 (DHD)

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

TFA is nearly 30m ahead of my original "Avatar Lite" legs projection after OW. It should better my 17 day projection by at least 20m. I had it ending with 900-925 at that time. I am now projecting out to 950-980m. So that's it, I'm in the 1B club. I figured I'd state it before the end of the year comes(always late to the party...but at least I make an entrance).

[jedieb]

TFA simply hasn't behaved the way an OW record setter should. Here, from BOM, are the last 10 OW record setters and their Week 2 declines. I put in $21M for Thursday and this is what I've got:

Not sure why my image isn't loading, but with a rough estimate of $21M for Thursday I get TFA to have a 33.7% Week 2 declines. Before that only JW had managed to fall under 50% with 49.5%. 33.7% for a OW record setter is ridiculous. 

 

Edited December 31, 2015 by jedieb

[GiantCALBears]

9 minutes ago, jedieb said:

TFA simply hasn't behaved the way an OW record setter should. Here, from BOM, are the last 10 OW record setters and their Week 2 declines. I put in $21M for Thursday and this is what I've got:

Not sure why my image isn't loading, but with a rough estimate of $21M for Thursday I get TFA to have a 33.7% Week 2 declines. Before that only JW had managed to fall under 50% with 49.5%. 33.7% for a OW record setter is ridiculous. 

 

None of those movies opened the weekend before the holidays FYI. Its the major reason why.

[jedieb]

True, but HG:CF had a Thanksgiving release that wasn't that far off from TFA and it still had a typical OW record setting drop of 60.6%. No where near the the 33.7% TFA is likely to pull in when the numbers settle. No doubt that TFA's release date has helped it, but it's never helped any other film set the OW record and demonstrate holds like this. 

Edited December 31, 2015 by jedieb

[Daxtreme]

22.5 and above I'd be really happy. I can settle with 20-22.5.

 

Below 20 is meh. Below 18 is a disaster

[mkgenie]

If SW makes 24 million USD on Thursday Dec. 31, does it mean it officially became the top grossing film in a calendar year beating Jarussic World?

[SteveJaros]

9 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

22.5 and above I'd be really happy. I can settle with 20-22.5.

 

Below 20 is meh. Below 18 is a disaster

 

A disaster in what sense, that it will eventually take one day longer to pass Avatar DOM?

Edited January 1, 2016 by SteveJaros

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, mkgenie said:

If SW makes 24 million USD on Thursday Dec. 31, does it mean it officially became the top grossing film in a calendar year beating Jarussic World?

Yes it does.

[wildphantom]

Happy New Year from the UK to my fellow forum pals. 

 

Can rth bring us news that Star Wars has snuck past those dinosaurs for the year?! 

[Killimano3]

I was looking at the OW list and i realized that removing the Comic-book and Young Adult movie openings (the most front-loaded genres) the list up until this year looked like this:

 

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: DMC (135,634,554)

2. Shrek the Third (121,629,270)

3. Alice in Wonderland (116,101,023)

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: AWE (114,732,820)

5. Toy Story 3 (110,307,189)

6. Transformers: ROTF (108,966,307)

7. Star Wars Ep. III - ROTS (108,435,841)

8. Shrek 2 (108,037,878)

9. Indiana Jones and the KotCS (100,137,835)

10. Transformers: AOE (100,038,390)

 

Dead Man's Chest was first for nearly a decade and not a whole lot of films seems to open very high (the highest still being 135M)

But this year that records been broken 3 times. First by Furious 7 (147.2M) then by Jurassic World (208.8M) and finally by Star Wars (248.0M)

Just find that interesting

[CJohn]

The final member of my HONORABLE MENTIONS list has been revealed!! Check back tomorrow for the TOP 10 REVEAL!!! What movie will get the top spot? Jurassic World? Star Wars? Mad Max? Find out TOMORROW 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20846-cjohns-top-10-best-of-2015-the-os-edition/?page=2#comment-2334644

[junkshop36]

21.2-21.8 today

 

88-93m this weekend

 

Either way, another great weekend for TFA on its way to 1b DOM.  

 

 

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

9 hours ago, smerfy01 said:

He's A list, but no, he's not in the 'most prolific ever' category. Come on.

James Horner, Williams, Morricone, Desplat, Shore, hell even Elfman. Just...come on.

 

In my opinion, the only type of people that shouldb e mentioned with John Williams are Beethoven and Mozart.

[23IsEverywhere]

Assuming Friday = Saturday and Sunday = Friday*.7

Friday/Weekend

If it is flat Monday to Friday: 31.36m/84.67m (like ROTK, though that had New Years day on Thursday)

If it has half of Avitar's (numeric) Monday to Friday increase: 34.36m/92.77

If it has Avitar's (numeric) Monday to Friday increase: 37.36m/100.87m

If it has half of Avitar's (percentage) Monday to Friday increase: 36.09m/97.4m

If it has Avitar's (percentage) Monday to Friday increase: 40.8m/110.2m 

37.04m is needed on Friday to reach 100m

 

I think with how this movie has been going we are looking at a $99.8m 3rd weekend, which Disney will not fudge to $100m

Edited January 1, 2016 by 23IsEverywhere

[lilmac]

I originally said $76m. Increasing estimate to $88-92m

Edited January 1, 2016 by lilmac

[baumer]

shawnmr is doing his part to contribute to Sw tonight.....hes at his fifth showing. 

 

Happy New Year everyone.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

shawnmr is doing his part to contribute to Sw tonight.....hes at his fifth showing. 

 

Happy New Year everyone.

Happy birthday  

[75Live]

Just now, Baumer Fett said:

shawnmr is doing his part to contribute to Sw tonight.....hes at his fifth showing. 

 

Happy New Year everyone.

 

I am stuck on my fifth viewing too.  After IMAX, it is kind of hard to go back to regular   but I may watch it again...and again  

[bladels]

Come on Star Wars, pull that 17% decline - 23.3m Thursday and beat JW in calendar year.

[JonathanLB]

I agree, I'm just seeing it in IMAX 3D for now. I honestly was pretty non-excited about my only 2D showing, which was the one before the last. It just wasn't as impressive of an experience and if I'm going to the theater, I want that experience and spectacle. 

 

I have my ticket to my 10th viewing for Saturday morning in IMAX.