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WrathOfHan

Weekend Actuals (Page 93): TFA 42.35M | The Revenant 39.83M | Daddy's Home 15.02M | The Forest 12.74M | Sisters 7.19M

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, tokila said:

not true IMO.

 

The only movie ever that was operating(non opening weekend) near the level TFA is in January was Avatar. And it had a 60% sat bump the same day (it did have a better friday bump). Most of the bumps I saw that were better than 70% were like 1.2 mil to 2.2 mil. That is not comparable.  

 

TFA has a significant family and child audience so that it skews somewhere between kid film and more adult fair.  It's behaving like The Hobbit films which did 72-80% Sat jumps.  If you go farther back like Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe,  King Kong and the LOTR were 70s-80s Sat jumps in Jan.

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Elessar Summer Tentpole

Elessar

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, kitik said:

Don't expect good holds on Sunday. Avatar's 25% Sunday drop ain't going to happen, so people really need to throw that comparison out the window.

 

Last year, on Sunday January 11, tons of films dropped 40%, with many hitting the high 40's and even 50.

 

I'm thinking 35-40%.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, tokila said:

not true IMO.

 

The only movie ever that was operating(non opening weekend) near the level TFA is in January was Avatar. And it had a 60% sat bump the same day (it did have a better friday bump). Most of the bumps I saw that were better than 70% were like 1.2 mil to 2.2 mil. That is not comparable.  

 

Yes, it is true.  Are you saying that SW isn't jumping EXACTLY what others films are?  No film jumps exactly the same amount but you can look at other similar films with built in fanbases that appeal to kids and families as well as adults and you will see similar jumps.  

 

Hobbit BOFA:  Friday +80%....Sat +72%

ROTK:  122% Friday....75% Saturday

TTT:  143% friday...70% Saturday

 

The comparisons are there if you are willing to accept that no two films are going to behave exactly the same.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted

Golden Globes will have an effect on Sunday holds.

This is the chart for last year when GG were held on 11th Jan

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2015-01-11&p=.htm

 

The drops were mostly 40%+. Hobbit dropped 36.2% and that was the best hold in top 10.

 

With 19m Saturday, if SW falls 35% on Sunday it will get 42.11m. 40% drop gives 41.16m.

 

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MonstersandRoy Indie Sensation

MonstersandRoy

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

TFA has a significant family and child audience so that it skews somewhere between kid film and more adult fair.  It's behaving like The Hobbit films which did 72-80% Sat jumps.  If you go farther back like Lion, The Witch & The Wardrobe,  King Kong and the LOTR were 70s-80s Sat jumps in Jan.

 

Yeah the %'s are behaving similar, difference is, TFA is achieving the jump at a much larger scale of business. Like @tokila said, Avatar is the only wide December release I can remember (last 15 years) still achieving significant numbers by 2nd Saturday of Jan, and that was a 60.2% jump from $13.2 to $21.2m in 2010. Whereas the likes of LOTR were jumping from 3.8m to 6.5m and Hobbit1 2.3 to 4m, TFA is doing $10m to $19m. Don't see those jumps that often on that scale of business. But there isn't much to compare with it, as most December releases, like the ones you had mentioned had died down quite a bit to small grosses by 2nd weekend of Jan. Would also say all those films mentioned were probably aiming at a similar audience too, young+old.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

4 non-work days? What does MLK week do.

 

It makes Sunday's drops a little softer than they normally would be and then the Monday also has softer drops.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, tokila said:

seems there was a very specific group of people who were excited to see this. I think it runs well though. The initial drop was because Leo's fanbase came out day one. Should play well because its quality and awards hype.

 

A 24% Sat bump for an R-rated opener is strong.

Lone Survivor did 38m/125m. Revenant should do that at least with the awards push it is getting. I feel it will do 140-150m.

Edited by a2knet
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tokila Indie Sensation

tokila

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Yes, it is true.  Are you saying that SW isn't jumping EXACTLY what others films are?  No film jumps exactly the same amount but you can look at other similar films with built in fanbases that appeal to kids and families as well as adults and you will see similar jumps.  

 

Hobbit BOFA:  Friday +80%....Sat +72%

ROTK:  122% Friday....75% Saturday

TTT:  143% friday...70% Saturday

 

The comparisons are there if you are willing to accept that no two films are going to behave exactly the same.

yes, you can find example where the jumps % wise are comparable. The problem with trying to use historical examples with TFA is that is none. 

 

With Hobbit 3 you are comparing a 4 mil Satuday with a potential 19 mil. 

Rotk with a 6.5 versus a 19, and TTT a 6.6 versus a 19m.

 

Obviously the biggest difference is the expended demand. TFA burnt off 780 mil+ of demand before weekend 4. The highest of your examples(ROTK)  was just hitting 300 mil prior to 4th weekend.

 

In order to properly predict TFA we should avoid direct comparisons with historical trends. TFA is making its own trend. 

 

Patterns I have seen so far

1. Weekdays are very very strong. 

2. Even on 2 specific days that evenings are weak TFA well over performed (CMas Eve and NY Eve)

3. Weekends increases over weekdays grosses under performs (every weekend people have over estimated TFA)

4. Every weekday people have under estimated TFA

 

My deduction. TFA is playing like a crazy hybid of a summer blockbuster and a holiday family movie. It had the massive opening weekend of a blockbuster, and daily holds of a family holiday movie (18DEC-3JAN). Moving into January it has changed its form. It no longer can maintain weekday holds of a summer movie, but still has a stronger weekday draw than a typical out of season movie on weekdays. Because its a family film it really kills it when people are off all day (the entire holiday season, and now Sat, maybe sun). 

 

The problem people have predicting it is they base their holds of a typical January for a holiday movie. The problem with that is Holiday movies typically do not open like a summer blockbuster. 

 

All said we are right at 800million today. Literally uncharted territory, especially for a movie that is likely pulling a 40 million weekend. 

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted

I don't see how Ride Along 2 isn't number one next weekend.  This site always under estimates films with a strong black audience.  Ride Along had a 3.25X and that is rather unusual for a this kind of film.  Plus you have MLK weekend, so I see no reason why RA2 doesn't win the weekend with about 35-40 million.

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