Weekend revised estimates and 4 days totals pg 43 4 day est: RA2: 41.6: The Rev: 39.0... SW7: 32.5

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

It it has no stars, no Oscar buzz, and lots if competition. It's doing as well as it can 

Yep, this. Also, the war genre has always been a tricky genre at the box office.

[department store basement]

36 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

MARTIN LUTHER KING opening WEEKENDS
1991–Present

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening Gross*	% of total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross**	Date^
1	American Sniper	WB	$107,211,457	30.6%	3,555	$30,158	$350,126,372	1/16/15
2	Ride Along	Uni.	$48,626,380	36.0%	2,663	$18,260	$134,938,200	1/17/14
3	Cloverfield	Par.	$46,146,546	57.6%	3,411	$13,529	$80,048,433	1/18/08
4	Ride Along 2	Uni.	$41,550,000	100.0%	3,175	$13,087	$41,550,000	1/15/16
5	The Green Hornet	Sony	$40,012,543	40.5%	3,584	$11,164	$98,780,042	1/14/11

 

Wow, I didn't remember Cloverfield being THIS frontloaded. It's hard to fathom today given that it's the most well-known "found footage" movie ever outside of Blair Witch.

Edited January 18, 2016 by department store basement

[department store basement]

4 minutes ago, Orestes said:

 

Yeah, no. Spielberg is pretty much the only director who you can sell a movie on with his name alone. Directors like Nolan, Bay, or whoever else, are all "From the director of" guys.

 

I'd put Scorsese up there too.

[terrestrial]

the Japanese legs,... (not bad for the ER btw), SPECTRE only left the top 10 this weekend, only to give a hint about ~ other countries, other dynamics

 

Quote

Star Wars: The Force Awakens spent its fifth weekend on top of the Japanese box office, pulling in another $3.2 million (￥387 million) on Saturday and Sunday to bring its local total to more than $74 million (￥9.1 billion) from 5.8 million tickets sold.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/japan-box-office-star-wars-856664

[Ethan Hunt]

11 minutes ago, Chaz said:

Lol remember last year when people were projecting $500m for American Sniper after the first few days?

I don't recall that happening. It must've been a small number of people

[Mockingjay Raphael]

13 minutes ago, Orestes said:

 

Yeah, no. Spielberg is pretty much the only director who you can sell a movie on with his name alone. Directors like Nolan, Bay, or whoever else, are all "From the director of" guys.

 

Oh, can you please explain me then why is Spielberg considered a draw and Bay no, when BOS had a lower OW than 13H, and it's going to finish only slight above despite the amazing reviews + a big star?  

[MikeQ]

Terrific for The Revenant. A 20% drop from last weekend for the 3-day, and almost flat (a mere 2% drop) for 4-day weekend!!

 

Nice to see Spotlight jump up to a $2 million 4-day weekend. I'm just glad because of the expansion that more people will see it.

 

Peace,

Mike

[department store basement]

3 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

a big star?  

 

Hanks can't sell a movie anymore - his only movie that's been a big hit in the past 5 years or so is Captain Phillips

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, #ED said:

• Moderation Note: We apologize that we weren't efficient at updating the title throughout the weekend but please remember that the staff tries its best to be here during the weekends but as everyone knows, sometimes life can get in the way. With that said, if you want to make a daily/weekend thread, please make sure you will be around to edit the title yourself. Don't just make a weekend thread for the sake of making one. You are responsible for also editing the title and keeping the updates on the first post. Thank You.

 

True story.

[Daxtreme]

With Jurassic World legs, Star Wars finishes its run with 943M. I think that's about right.

 

If we simply add the remainder of the gross that Jurassic World did to its current total, that's 917M. I don't see TFA going below that in any way.

 

So, final total should be between 915M and ~950M

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

Hanks can't sell a movie anymore - his only movie that's been a big hit in the past 5 years or so is Captain Phillips

Still one of the most recognizable actors working today.

 

 

[Kvikk Lunsj]

9 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

Oh, can you please explain me then why is Spielberg considered a draw and Bay no, when BOS had a lower OW than 13H, and it's going to finish only slight above despite the amazing reviews + a big star?  

13 hours has more action and it is more relevant in society. People have been taking about Bengazi since 2012. 

[terrestrial]

BO.com's take on the changed weekend estimates

http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2016-01-15-north-america-thursday-night-report-ride-along-2-scores-126-million-13-hours-pulls-900k

[Mockingjay Raphael]

7 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

Hanks can't sell a movie anymore - his only movie that's been a big hit in the past 5 years or so is Captain Phillips

 

Well, better him than James Badge Dale

 

[setna]

5 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

With Jurassic World legs, Star Wars finishes its run with 943M. I think that's about right.

 

If we simply add the remainder of the gross that Jurassic World did to its current total, that's 917M. I don't see TFA going below that in any way.

 

So, final total should be between 915M and ~950M

 

I see more 920 than 950, but let´s see if still there are surprises...

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, tribefan695 said:

 

Since Avatar grossed less with more competition, market share would yield a similar result. 

 

Two $200 million grossers opened the next weekend and it still managed a <2% drop. You can't ignore that.

But I was never talking about what Avatar accomplished with competition in December, merely in January. Alvin and Sherlock had both cooled way off by this point in January, they were no longer formidable threats. Book of Eli was the only real threat at this point in Avatar's run. Opposed to RA2+The Revenant, which were both about equally as big as Book of Eli this weekend. All I ever said was TFA could have held a little better without the addition of The Revenant's huge breakout, of which there is no corresponding match in Avatar's run. Avatar had a RA2 to deal with in the form of Book of Eli and it even had a 13 Hours to deal with in the form of The Lovely Bones. It didn't have an extra 30m grosser in there though, nor a movie that made much of anything the week prior like The Revenant did. I was never arguing Avatar holds for TFA under any circumstance, just maybe 5-10% better holds last weekend and this weekend if it didn't have The Revenant. Who knows, that could have been all it took for 1b to happen. Impossible to know, just speculating. Now, I am done with this conversation, it is tiring. 

[grim22]

Finally going to watch TFA today. Probably the last person to do so.

[Maxmoser3]

Next weekend looks dead.

[GiantCALBears]

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

Films knocking all-time champs from #1 wknd spot: LostInSpace (Titanic), DearJohn (Avatar) & now #RideAlong2 (#ForceAwakens).

That's quite the list right there, wonder if we could find ANYTHING in common other than that fact among them?

[Daxtreme]

6 minutes ago, setna said:

 

I see more 920 than 950, but let´s see if still there are surprises...

 

Even with The Hobbit 1 legs the total is still 933.

 

I just don't see how Star Wars episode 7, nominated for 5 oscars, already highest grossing movie of all-time domestic, much better received than The Hobbit, and part of the most iconic franchise of all time in the USA can have worse legs than The Hobbit 1

 

I mean, yeah, it's still in the realm of possibility, but I wouldn't exactly call that "expected results".

 

My model, which I made last monday, has TFA passing 900M on Feb 2nd. So far, TFA is 1.5M ahead of my model, and maybe 2M because I think Disney is lowballing Monday as well, so... 900M by Feb 2nd because I assume it's gonna continue following my model, and then...

 

only 20M for the rest of its run? It's gonna be coming out of a 10M week-end!

 

That would require 50% drops every single week until the end of its run. Hell, it might gross an additional 20M on the remaining week-ends alone!