Weekend Estimates | 21.0 M KFP III | 11.44 M HAIL, CAESAR! | 7.10 M THE REVENANT | 6.89 M SW: TFA | 6.09 M THE CHOICE | 5.20 M PAPAZ | 4.7 M THE FINEST HOURS

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, department store basement said:

Is TFA the first film to open over 100m and have a 4x multiplier?

 

but it doesn't have a 4x multiplier...at least not currently.

 

Even then, Shrek 2 had a 4x multiplier.

[Hatebox]

5 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

TFA raised the bar quite a bit.

 

The prequels had half the OS total.

 

Yeah, but the TFA doubled domestically too. The dom/OS ratio stayed the same.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Hatebox

[Maxmoser3]

6 hours ago, department store basement said:

 

Why, might I ask?

 

Because Revenant, KFP3, and Deadpool are the 3 biggest movies released wide (or to be in the next week) so far this year?

No but they have X-Men in the summer which would be possibly more sucessful than Days Of Future Past.

[SWXII]

The Force/Rev poised to take down Ceasar this holiday weekend. 

[JonathanLB]

7 hours ago, kesleyk said:

And it hasn't had that kind of drop yet

 

Dory, is that you?! Pay attention or at least figure out how to use Google before you just spew nonsense. The film literally just fell 21% the weekend before last... I mean... SMH dude.

[jb007]

11 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Dory, is that you?! Pay attention or at least figure out how to use Google before you just spew nonsense. The film literally just fell 21% the weekend before last... I mean... SMH dude.

 

 

Disney has been somewhat callous in its retention of theaters for TFA. The grosses would have even better than what they are now. RA2 had been able to retain theaters better than TFA for several weeks while grossing lower than TFA. In fact TFA has been been outperforming The Revenant in PTA for the past few weeks weeks and this past weekend, even beat it while playing in 750 fewer theaters.

 

The 21% drop was even with TFA losing 809 theaters that weekend. As per Nilephelan, they dropped theaters for movies like The Finest Hours. Go figure.

[narniadis]

^^ which is normal - y'all bitching about Star Wars dropping screens but that is what happens. The Revenant, RA2 etc all came out in wide release well after the lock on SW's screens was over. And of course Disney would ditch some screens - probably at smaller multiplexes - in order to get their next film out there as wide as they felt they could. And I think someone else had already said this, but the only reason its PTA has been holding up so well is BECAUSE of the theater losses.  This wasn't Avatar and the theater losses have reflected that (holding power, not gross)

[jb007]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

^^ which is normal - y'all bitching about Star Wars dropping screens but that is what happens. The Revenant, RA2 etc all came out in wide release well after the lock on SW's screens was over. And of course Disney would ditch some screens - probably at smaller multiplexes - in order to get their next film out there as wide as they felt they could. And I think someone else had already said this, but the only reason its PTA has been holding up so well is BECAUSE of the theater losses.  This wasn't Avatar and the theater losses have reflected that (holding power, not gross)

Not just the PTA, TFA has been easily out grossing RA2 and this past weekend out grossed The Revenant also. So TFA dropping more screens than movies making less than it makes very little sense.

[JonathanLB]

I agree, makes no sense at all. Just defies logic, especially that 800 theater drop when it was beating virtually every other movie in release.

[George Parr]

9 hours ago, ThatOneGuy said:

 

but it doesn't have a 4x multiplier...at least not currently.

 

Even then, Shrek 2 had a 4x multiplier.

 

I don't think that it has any chance of reaching a 4x multiplier, as that would require about 990 million.

 

I wouldn't consider Shrek 2 to have one either though

That movie made 21 million on Wednesday and Thursday, which kind of gets ignored if you use just the three days of the opening weekend and go from there. If you add those milllions, the modifier is just 3.42. The whole concept of weekday starts screws up everything though. Take Transformers 2, which started on a Wednesday as well. If you use just the weekend, it has an exceptional modifier that sees it right behind Shrek 2 (see above) and Toy Story 3 for 100+ million openers, but if you use the numbers from openeing day to Sunday, it barely gets above 2. Neither method is kind of right when the start doesn't happen on a Friday, nor is just using the first three days going to work, because those aren't always full days but can be extensive previews as well, see Shrek 2 again.

 

TFA would need about 933 million to pass Toy Story 3 as the regular (meaning Friday) 100+ million start with the best modifier.

[That One Girl]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

 

I don't think that it has any chance of reaching a 4x multiplier, as that would require about 990 million.

 

I wouldn't consider Shrek 2 to have one either though

That movie made 21 million on Wednesday and Thursday, which kind of gets ignored if you use just the three days of the opening weekend and go from there. If you add those milllions, the modifier is just 3.42. The whole concept of weekday starts screws up everything though. Take Transformers 2, which started on a Wednesday as well. If you use just the weekend, it has an exceptional modifier that sees it right behind Shrek 2 (see above) and Toy Story 3 for 100+ million openers, but if you use the numbers from openeing day to Sunday, it barely gets above 2. Neither method is kind of right when the start doesn't happen on a Friday, nor is just using the first three days going to work, because those aren't always full days but can be extensive previews as well, see Shrek 2 again.

 

TFA would need about 933 million to pass Toy Story 3 as the regular (meaning Friday) 100+ million start with the best modifier.

 

Ah yes, the typical Wednesday opener...

 

[setna]

19 minutes ago, ThatOneGuy said:

 

Ah yes, the typical Wednesday opener...

 

 

And don´t forget that is not the same making 3x with a 100-120 opening than with a 248!

[kesleyk]

8 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Dory, is that you?! Pay attention or at least figure out how to use Google before you just spew nonsense. The film literally just fell 21% the weekend before last... I mean... SMH dude.

It had a weekend drop of 21, but the best weekly so far has been 26.4.  You need week on week drops of 21.  Which it hasn't had.  It needs better than drops of 21 of you're only considering weekends. 

[WrathOfHan]

TFA has been losing smaller multiplexes, not 16+ screen theaters. When TFA drops 200-300 theaters this weekend I better not see this argument.

[Jim Shorts]

25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TFA has been losing smaller multiplexes, not 16+ screen theaters. When TFA drops 200-300 theaters this weekend I better not see this argument.

 

This. 

[cookie]

14 hours ago, ThatOneGuy said:

 

but it doesn't have a 4x multiplier...at least not currently.

 

Even then, Shrek 2 had a 4x multiplier.

 

Slightly skewed thanks to a Wednesday opening though.

[RamblinRed]

Part of the reason Disney is willing to drop the screens is it is not just a movie company and that makes a difference. 

They would rather get a film on DVD 2-3 weeks earlier than keep it in theaters longer because they will make more money by doing that. When movies are only about 15% of your revenue, you are going to be less concerned with how long you keep a film in theaters and what the counts are. (not that they don't care - just I don't think they care as much as some movie companies).

 

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, cookie said:

 

Slightly skewed thanks to a Wednesday opening though.

 

Someone else noted this.

[baumer]

I've said this before about TFA...the number you needed to pay attention to was 870 million.  

 

Since the DVD era, which basically began in 1997, there have been 8 films to set the opening weekend record before TFA.  The best multiplier for any of them was 3.51 which belonged to Spider-man.  Once TFA reached 870 million, it became the opening weekend record holder post 1997, with the best multiplier.  Right now it's at 3.65X.  And obviously it still has more left in the tank.  So this might be a modern record that might not be beat for a very long time.