TigerPaw Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said: That could backfire. They always give OD extra shows. They will have less shows on Friday now which could then hurt Saturday shows. Exactly this, this is what I was thinking. Just like Kung Fu Panda 3 which decided to release days before CNY and then had literally no showtimes when the CNY movies were released; despite KFP3 having better WoM than any single CNY movie release. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 The big brain play is to release on Saturday to steal the showtimes from the Friday openers 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) Saturday presale: Frozen 2 is ahead of Jumanji 3 so far and seems to only behind the 3 new releases Edited December 13, 2019 by danhtruong5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said: That could backfire. They always give OD extra shows. They will have less shows on Friday now which could then hurt Saturday shows. I agree Disney must be convinced it's better (doesn't mean it will, we have a lot of date on studio's making stupid decisions) but at least they have to be convinced by it other wise they woudn't do it. Edited December 13, 2019 by pepsa 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) IP4 Fri: 3.50m 44.4k shows SW9 T-4 Wed: 1.79m (+570k) 12.9k (+3.9k) Thu: 835k (+270k) 14.7k (+5.6k) Fri: 1.11m (+530k) 17.1k (+5.0k) Sat: 665k (+235k) 7.0k (+3.8k) TLJ OD: T-5 2.53M T-4 3.09M T-3 4.07M T-2 5.60M Tbh SW9 is doing quite decent considering the lack of show times it has. Still it doesn't have a lot of time left and the weekend is comming so jumps might not be super high. I have no clue when showtimes will be added, they might be waiting to see how the new releases are doing over the weekend. @POTUS 2020 what increases do you expect over the next days? Also IP4 increases are pretty weak atm. Edited December 13, 2019 by pepsa 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, pepsa said: IP4 Fri: 3.50m 44.4k shows SW9 T-4 Wed: 1.79m (+570k) 12.9k (+3.9k) Thu: 835k (+270k) 14.7k (+5.6k) Fri: 1.11m (+530k) 17.1k (+5.0k) Sat: 665k (+235k) 7.0k (+3.8k) TLJ OD: T-5 2.53M T-4 3.09M T-3 4.07M T-2 5.60M Tbh SW9 is doing quite decent considering the lack of show times it has. Still it doesn't have a lot of time left and the weekend is comming so jumps might not be super high. I have no clue when showtimes will be added, they might be waiting to see how the new releases are doing over the weekend. @POTUS 2020 what increases do you expect over the next days? Also IP4 increases are pretty weak atm. I assume it will get at least 100k shows on Wed, Sky Fire got 93k on thur and did 29m. If they list 20k shows per day we should see n 50% bumps or greater. but S50% S50% M50% T100% still doesnt get it very high though= 12m. Could see 75% Mon and and 125%+ Tue or its a dud, or its a weekend movie or not Edited December 13, 2019 by POTUS 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Weather is too cold, doesn’t matter the IP / brand or even the actors... people are just not really keen on watching movies. Presales for all movies are weak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 (edited) IP4 Fri: 3.93m 45.8k shows SW9 T-3 Wed: 2.44m (+650k) 15k (+2.1k) Thu: 1.27m (+392k) 17k (+2.3k) Fri: 1.34m (+230k) 18.5k (+1.4k) Sat: 840k (+175k) 7.4k (+0.4k) TLJ OD: T-5 2.53M T-4 3.09M T-3 4.07M T-2 5.60M Well only 3 days left, doesn't look good tbh. I think it will have huge jumps on monday and tuesday. Edited December 15, 2019 by pepsa 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wotad Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I dont know it was even released in China seems just like a waste but I suppose to keep the few fans it has there happy. A drop from TLJ was predicted though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 IP Man pre-sales look weak. Just $4mn at T-5 days. I don't really know how local PS work tho. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 17 hours ago, pepsa said: Well only 3 days left, doesn't look good tbh. I think it will have huge jumps on monday and tuesday. PS arent going to go up without the shows. I cant believe its just at 17k shows. I assumed 80k+ or just 25% would be the minimum 9 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: IP Man pre-sales look weak. Just $4mn at T-5 days. I don't really know how local PS work tho. PS are similar to HLWD. The ramp up is less steep at the end, 60% PS bump on the last day instead of 75% and the PSm is consistently a bit lower usually at 2.5-3x. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: PS are similar to HLWD. The ramp up is less steep at the end, 60% PS bump on the last day instead of 75% and the PSm is consistently a bit lower usually at 2.5-3x. So ¥20mn ish final. That would be ¥60mn OD. Less than half of 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ymblcza Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 With Sheep Without a Shepherd breaking out, there’s even smaller space for SW🤣 Maybe less than half of SWaS on OD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 (edited) 59 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said: PS arent going to go up without the shows. I cant believe its just at 17k shows. I assumed 80k+ or just 25% would be the minimum Idd, yesterday I just assumed they woudn't add much today because they didn't add anything on sat and weekends are always slow in China. Tbh if it doesn't go to 35k shows tomorrow this might end in a disaster. OD under 28m becoming more and more likely I think. Edited December 15, 2019 by pepsa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 11 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: IP Man pre-sales look weak. Just $4mn at T-5 days. I don't really know how local PS work tho. Ya, pretty weak presales to be honest. Many box office Analysts in the country expects much more than that. I think there are certain factors here such as 1) the crazy cold weather, where non of the movies are really doing well. 2) While the official title is “Ip Man 4:The Finale”, both Maoyan and TPP removes “the finale” from the official title, and general audiences are kinda confused as to whether this is just another episode to milk the franchise or are the filmmakers ending this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 To be honest, I feel that TROS should stick to Jan2020, just like the previous Two episodes. It tried too hard to squeeze in between the local films to get a December release date. Sheep without shepherd has a strong WoM, and I expect the same for IpMan4(I have watched it) and Feng XiaoGang’s movie which had sneak previews today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 FWIW TROS has ¥8mn pre-sales while IP Man 4 ¥6mn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 @Olive is TROS full release on Wednesday/Thursday or just wide limited previews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, Jedi Jat said: FWIW TROS has ¥8mn pre-sales while IP Man 4 ¥6mn Different release date; don’t think this is the way it should be calculated. Wednesday 7pm onwards TROS nation wide sneak previews and Thursday full release is my understanding IpMan4 only release on Friday official. Edited December 15, 2019 by TigerPaw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 (edited) IP4 Fri: 4.32m 47.5k shows SW9 T-2 Wed: 3.05m (+610k) 17.2k (+2.2k) Thu: 1.48m (+210k) 19.4k (+2.4k) Fri: 1.55m (+210k) 19.9k (+1.4k) Sat: 1.32m (+480k) 8.0k (+0.6k) Sun: 680k (?) 6.7k (+?) TLJ OD: T-5 2.53M T-4 3.09M T-3 4.07M T-2 5.60M The good thing is Sat increased 57% from yesterday and only added 600 showtimes. TROS total ps's for the week are 8.08m or 44.3% bigger than TLJ OD presales at the same point in time. EDIT: Following Tigerpaw: wednesday is only a 7pm start so not a full OD, leave me to believe showtimes won't go over 45k so maybe a 8.5m finish for wednesday. The actual OD is Thursday but that deflated by the large 'previews'. The good news it's previews are way ahead of Solo's OD at the same poin in time (3.05m vs 1.65m). Edited December 15, 2019 by pepsa 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...