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Wednesday: BvS $8.1M

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Just now, narniadis said:

 

Yeah this series is going down in flames... at least with other film series where this trend is noticeable the grosses are high enough to qualify for blockbuster status (or what used to be anyways,i.e. over 100m.)

 

Lionsgate is really having trouble creating another blockbuster to rival what it had with its first 3 Hunger Games films. People were ready to declare Lionsgate as being equal to the big 6, but I don't think that Lionsgate is on that level.

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I have no idea why every site is going so light on their Allegiant predictions. It's second weekend drop was about 10% higher than Insurgent's and the third weekend of that didn't drop below 50. Allegiant isn't suddenly going to have a sub-50, hell, sub-55 drop.

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Anyone expecting BvS to gross over 65m this weekend is in for disappointment I don't know how else to say it. There is nothing out there to suggest that a hold better than -60% is in the cards just not there. And that says a lot considering that holds in the -55 to -60% range have become standard for big films since the early shows have gotten really big. From the Box Office perspective I would love a gross over 65m - because every dollar leads us towards another yearly record, etc and so on but you also need to be realistic. If the film has a final gross on Monday that starts with a 6 that is cause for celebration....

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3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I have no idea why every site is going so light on their Allegiant predictions. It's second weekend drop was about 10% higher than Insurgent's and the third weekend of that didn't drop below 50. Allegiant isn't suddenly going to have a sub-50, hell, sub-55 drop.

 

I would have gone sub 50 until I saw the theater counts. Insurgent didn't have F7 on it's second weekend so I do think there is a BvS factor to last weekends drop (amongst other things)

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1 hour ago, Harpospoke said:

 

I don't watch wrestling, but I think I get it.

 

Real fighting is not exactly a positive thing.   It's two people trying to hurt each other...that's it.    It's not like other sports where there is a goal not related to harming another human being.

 

So, just like how seeing someone fall down in a movie is funny...in real life it's scary.    A dramatic angst filled scene with someone crying in a movie is heartbreaking, but might get on your nerves in real life.   I think wrestling is the combat without the guilt of knowing you are glued to a TV watching people hit each other.    The only think I really know about it is that the Rock used to do it...and he's got a metric ton of charisma.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

Critics create early wom. 

 

Youre telling me if BvS got a 95% on RT and critics were claiming this was TDK level a week out it almost does 200m OW no doubt 

I don't believe that. Maybe 170-180M OW, at most, and even that I have doubts.

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I have no idea why every site is going so light on their Allegiant predictions. It's second weekend drop was about 10% higher than Insurgent's and the third weekend of that didn't drop below 50. Allegiant isn't suddenly going to have a sub-50, hell, sub-55 drop.

Insurgent faced a monster blockbuster on his 3rd week. Allegiant is facing the nothing. 

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2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't believe that. Maybe 170-180M OW, at most, and even that I have doubts.

Insurgent faced a monster blockbuster on his 3rd week. Allegiant is facing the nothing. 

But Allegiant has less people caring ;) 

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4 minutes ago, Walt Disney said:

 

Lionsgate is really having trouble creating another blockbuster to rival what it had with its first 3 Hunger Games films. People were ready to declare Lionsgate as being equal to the big 6, but I don't think that Lionsgate is on that level.

 

I was looking at Mojo's records for Buena Vista the other day (seeing where Zootopia fit in the overall top 25 of the company) and I noticed something. Disney has a great history of film making, but they had never been the "big" studio. And it wasn't until the 1980s that they scored a 100m film in 1 run and only then they didn't score a 100m animated film until Beauty and the Beast. They had output on a decent level but they didn't really start to score big until they created the Touchstone banner in the late 80s. Lionsgate is similar in my book. Sure they have had hits, but like you said they haven't been able to break their mold outside of the Hunger Games. Maybe they need to take a playbook from Disney's 1980s history.

 

**matter of fact Disney's first 2 100m grossers were back to back releases in 1987 - 3 Men & A Baby and Good Morning, Vietnam**

 

Outside of their franchise fair (THG and the final release of Twilight) Lionsgate has 2 100m films - 1 from 2004 and then 1 from 2013 they got to do much better to even be thought of as a mini-major (IMO)

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1 minute ago, narniadis said:

 

I was looking at Mojo's records for Buena Vista the other day (seeing where Zootopia fit in the overall top 25 of the company) and I noticed something. Disney has a great history of film making, but they had never been the "big" studio. And it wasn't until the 1980s that they scored a 100m film in 1 run and only then they didn't score a 100m animated film until Beauty and the Beast. They had output on a decent level but they didn't really start to score big until they created the Touchstone banner in the late 80s. Lionsgate is similar in my book. Sure they have had hits, but like you said they haven't been able to break their mold outside of the Hunger Games. Maybe they need to take a playbook from Disney's 1980s history.

 

**matter of fact Disney's first 2 100m grossers were back to back releases in 1987 - 3 Men & A Baby and Good Morning, Vietnam**

 

Outside of their franchise fair (THG and the final release of Twilight) Lionsgate has 2 100m films - 1 from 2004 and then 1 from 2013 they got to do much better to even be thought of as a mini-major (IMO)

And the $100M+ grosser from 2004 was a controversial, then-timely Michael Moore documentary that they picked up after Disney refused to distribute it. lol.

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3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

But Allegiant has less people caring ;) 

Well, BOM agrees with you on the big drop thing. But boxoffice.com has been quite on point with their predictions lately...

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6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't believe that. Maybe 170-180M OW, at most, and even that I have doubts.

2 of 3 roommates who all work in film still haven't seen it. They passed on seeing it opening tonight to "wait" yet they love batman and saw Mad Max, Jurassic and Star Wars owning day reviews were brutal 

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14 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Anyone expecting BvS to gross over 65m this weekend is in for disappointment I don't know how else to say it. There is nothing out there to suggest that a hold better than -60% is in the cards just not there. And that says a lot considering that holds in the -55 to -60% range have become standard for big films since the early shows have gotten really big. From the Box Office perspective I would love a gross over 65m - because every dollar leads us towards another yearly record, etc and so on but you also need to be realistic. If the film has a final gross on Monday that starts with a 6 that is cause for celebration....

 

Anything around $59m, slightly below or above, it'd be amazing news for BvS, all things considered.

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5 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

 

Anything around $59m, slightly below or above, it'd be amazing news for BvS, all things considered.

 

Yeah :) hence my "anything with a "6" comment"

 

I am still expecting around 55m

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