Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[a2k]

I gonna repost my post...

 

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

BVS had a Preview:Rest of Friday ratio of x:1.95x.

Giving CW a ratio of x:1.96-2.16x (CW may have better reception but BVS had partial holiday on Friday)

 

27.7 + 53.9 (1.95x) + 50.6 (-06.1%) + 33.8 (-33.3%) = 166 (81.6)

25.0 + 49.0 (1.96x) + 54.0 (+10.2%) + 42.0 (-22.5%) = 170 (74.0)

25.0 + 51.5 (2.06x) + 58.0 (+12.6%) + 45.5 (-21.5%) = 180 (76.5)

25.0 + 54.0 (2.16x) + 62.0 (+14.8%) + 49.0 (-21.0%) = 190 (79.0)

 

I think ~76.5 OD / ~180 OW is more likely than most folks think.

 

 

[Krissykins]

It was tracking at $190m nearly 2 weeks ago, up from the initial $175m.

 

Obviously we need to ignore these "broke Fandango sales record" reports. 

[redfirebird2008]

11 minutes ago, IMojammer said:

DL

 

75-80m for Friday, tracking 10-13% behind age of ultron.

 

That's 50-55m for normal business hours.

 

It's still really early though.

 

If it's 10% behind Ultron for matinees, we'll have to see if it can make up ground at night. If not, then it ends up around $51m in Friday business and $76m including Thursday previews. That would put it on track for a $185m weekend assuming IM3's Saturday percentage increase and the first Avengers' Sunday hold.

 

THUR - $25m

FRI - $51m

SAT - $60m (+17%, same as IM3)

SUN - $49m (-18%, same as TA1)

 

If it can do a bit better each day, then Ultron's $191m weekend is definitely in play.

[The Futurist]

The reverse psychology games in this place are gold to be honest.

 

 

[Thrylos 7]

6 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

What's extremely disappointing is these type of reactions to a $180m+ open (not to mention the massive OS haul).

You have your opinion I have mine . I won't pretend to be happy if this does sub-200 million ow . 

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Ah so now it's a Captain America movie.

 

Thought that would happen.

 

Same when a Scottish tennis player loses Wimbledon, he's Scottish. But if he wins, he's British. 

I call it Captain America 3 because calling it Civil War just seems tacky to me, considering the context of American history. Also, I don't really care about superhero movies.

[RichWS]

Thinking about creating a Ken Burns-esque documentary about cannastop's fascinating obsession with Zootopia.

You: "My dog died yesterday."

Cannastop's response: "Too bad it died on a day Zootopia had such a great drop."

[George Parr]

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

It's not estimates though, they are saying that matinees are 10-13% behind Ultron, and if that pace remains the same through the day, it will end with 75-80M. If night shows pick up it can push higher, if night shows don't do as well, it can fall lower. Current trending, if maintained, will take it to 75-80M.

 

I'm not sure if that's really the case though. Previews came in 2 million below Ultron, matinees are supposedly running 10-13% behind it as well, but the range they give is ~11% (75m) to ~5% (80m) behind the opening day of AoU. Either they are really bad at math or they already consider Civil War to have an advantage in the evening. The 75-80 million range wouldn't match a "this is where it ends up if it stays that way" count.

[The Futurist]

 

Sure why not, it s Tom after all.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, RichWS said:

Thinking about creating a Ken Burns-esque documentary about cannastop's fascinating obsession with Zootopia.

You: "My dog died yesterday."

Cannastop's response: "Too bad it died on a day Zootopia had such a great drop."

Hey, you should take that as consolation for your loss.

[75Live]

Someone is probably  close to getting the boot.

 

Maybe time to take a bresthe, a drink, whatever and cool down a notch.   This movie is still going to make around $200 I say, and said not much earlier 

Edited May 6, 2016 by 75live

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Thrylos 7 said:

You have your opinion I have mine . I won't pretend to be happy if this does sub-200 million ow . 

 

Totally fine to feel how you do, doesn't mean it's correct in my opinion.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Very anecdotal, but most of the theaters around me that have reserved seating are almost completely sold out in the evening.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

 

I'm not sure if that's really the case though. Previews came in 2 million below Ultron, matinees are supposedly running 10-13% behind it as well, but the range they give is ~11% (75m) to ~5% (80m) behind the opening day of AoU. Either they are really bad at math or they already consider Civil War to have an advantage in the evening. The 75-80 million range wouldn't match a "this is where it ends up if it stays that way" count.

 

It's Deadline. They have never been good at math.

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Truckasaurus said:

 

I gave you a decent answer in your club thread and you chose to ignore it.

 

Yes that was a great post. If CW adds AOU's post-preview OW of 163.7m to the 25m previews, it will get 188.7m.

 

2 hours ago, Truckasaurus said:

Some more perspective. Here are the highest grossing weekend-only tallies of all time:

 

1) The Force Awakens - $190.9M

 

2) Jurassic World - $190.3M

 

3) The Avengers - $188.7M

 

4) Age of Ultron - $163.7M

 

5) Iron Man 3 - $158.5M

 

[WrathOfHan]

Good number. If it does 80M this is worst case scenario IMO:

 

80M Friday

60M Saturday

48M Sunday

188M Weekend

[George Parr]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

It's Deadline. They have never been good at math.

 

Good point

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I call it Captain America 3 because calling it Civil War just seems tacky to me, considering the context of American history. Also, I don't really care about superhero movies.

 

Not aimed at anyone in particular.

 

I mean as soon as the preview number came out, people start comparing the performance to Winter Soldier, instead of Ultron. 

[John Marston]

180m is great. Sadly a lot of people, including BO.com and Mojo got out of hand in predicting it seems. I think it will get closest to Gitesh Pandya's prediction 

[moviesRus]

idk why all these sites suddenly started jumping on the $210-215m train? for a long time it was predicted for $170m..