Weekend Actuals (Page 67): Captain Pirate: Piracy War 72.6M | Jungle Book 17.1M | Money Monster 14.8M | The Darkness 5M | Mother's Day 3.3M

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

Devil's advocate would be that IM3 had a softer drop internationally (and grossed slightly more this weekend as well).

 

Yeah, I noticed that (I mentioned it being at a 10M advantage over CW OS, probably had to do w/a softer drop). But again, they're virtually neck-to-neck right now. 1.2B red alerts can start being thrown if CW had another bigger than IM3 next weekend (and while it doesn't quite have a Star Trek Into Darkness to compete, Ultron fought Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road both, which did 110M+ combined, and it still only dropped 50%, and I don't expect Angry Birds/Neighbors 2/Nice Guys to be as tough as that was, even if it will bring more than Star Trek by itself).

[peludo]

5 hours ago, peludo said:

IMO, Jungle Book can outgross both Zootopia and BvS.

And who knows if it can outgross Deadpool too...

[WrathOfHan]

Projection for the rest of Money Monster's run:

 

Remainder of this week: 6M (21M total)

May 20: 9M (3.5M weekdays, 33.5M total)

May 27: 7M (3M weekdays, 43.5M total)

Jun 3: 4.3M (1.2M weekdays, 49M total)

Jun 10: 2.6M (800k weekdays, 52.4M total)

Jun 17: 1.6M (500k weekdays, 54.5M total)

Jun 24: 900k (300k weekdays, 55.7M total)

 

Should get to 55M

[JohnnyGossamer]

Jungle Book's a juggernaut. It will definitely out gross Zootopia and BvS.

[John Marston]

Civil War is collapsing overseas. Might not reach 1.2 billion

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Wonder how far Jungle Book can go. 370 perhaps?

 

Some comps.

Cinderella : 7.1m 5th weekend, added 20.5m more - 2.89x

OZ : 8.0m 5th weekend, added 22.3m more - 2.79x

AIW: 8.2m 5th weekend,  added 24.4m more - 2.98x

 

2.79-2.89x more off a 17.7m weekend gives 49.4-52.7 more for a 361.1-364.4m total.

[WrathOfHan]

Projection for the rest of Jungle Book's run:

 

Remainder of this week: 3.6M (315.4M total)

May 20: 9.7M (2.1M weekdays, 327.2M total)

May 27: 6.8M (2M weekdays, 336M total)

Jun 3: 3.4M (1.2M weekdays, 340.6M total)

Jun 10: 2M (800k weekdays, 343.4M total)

Jun 17: 1.1M (500k weekdays, 345M total)

 

Should leg it to 350M but Deadpool is probably out of reach

[baumer]

Its completely shocking to me that CW is having mixed wom internationally. Shocking i tell you.

[a2k]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 30m30 minutes ago

Despite solid reviews, strong WOM & low competition, 60% 2nd wknd fall shows #CaptainAmericaCivilWar playing like 3quel. Auds came upfront.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 24m24 minutes ago

Top Global Hits of 2016: #Zootopia $969.8M, #CaptainAmericaCivilWar $940.9M, #BatmanvSuperman $870M, #JungleBook $828M.

[Agafin]

@No Prisoners Does this rule out your piracy theory? You said that Piracy will erode it's dailies on a per hour basis leading to a lower Sat bump than AoU and it missing $70m for the weekend. That didn't happen. I think this proves that frontloading was really all there was to it (dom only, not talking about China).

[Agafin]

Just now, a2knet said:

 

Some comps.

Cinderella : 7.1m 5th weekend, added 20.5m more - 2.89x

OZ : 8.0m 5th weekend, added 22.3m more - 2.79x

AIW: 8.2m 5th weekend,  added 24.4m more - 2.98x

 

2.79-2.89x more off a 17.7m weekend gives 49.4-52.7 more for a 361.1-364.4m total.

 

Since it's been holding better than all of those, doing 3x this weekend seems like the low end (well, I guess AB and Alice may hurt it).

[WrathOfHan]

This should give us a solid idea of what to expect with Infinity War Part 1 and especially Part 2. The latter is going to be a big event and very frontloaded. Doctor Strange is a wildcard, but I think the rest of the movies should all fall within a 2.5-2.7x

[a2k]

So CW is at 645 OS. Adding say, 420 dom, gives 1.065b.

So needs 135m more OS for 1.2b after an 84.2m weekend.

Why is that in question? Should happen.

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

So CW is at 645 OS. Adding say, 420 dom, gives 1.065b.

So needs 135m more OS for 1.2b after an 84.2m weekend.

Why is that in question? Should happen.

 

 

Going by what some said in international thread. Said it might not pass IM3

[Agafin]

Just now, a2knet said:

So CW is at 645 OS. Adding say, 420 dom, gives 1.065b.

So needs 135m more OS for 1.2b after an 84.2m weekend.

Why is that in question? Should happen.

 

IM3 added "only" $140 million off an $89.3 million weekend. And that one didn't have to face X-men the following weekend. $1.2B is by no means a lock.

Edited May 15, 2016 by Agafin

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

So CW is at 645 OS. Adding say, 420 dom, gives 1.065b.

So needs 135m more OS for 1.2b after an 84.2m weekend.

Why is that in question? Should happen.

 

Slightly confused as well, unless X-Men: Apocalypse (releasing this weekend in several int'l territories) destroys it

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 30m30 minutes ago

Despite solid reviews, strong WOM & low competition, 60% 2nd wknd fall shows #CaptainAmericaCivilWar playing like 3quel. Auds came upfront.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 24m24 minutes ago

Top Global Hits of 2016: #Zootopia $969.8M, #CaptainAmericaCivilWar $940.9M, #BatmanvSuperman $870M, #JungleBook $828M.

 

Interesting stat - Civil War is only the third summer opener in the past 7 years (since Iron Man) to earn less on its second weekend than on OD. Others are X-Men Origins Wolverine and Age of Ultron.

 

The MCU has developed its fanbase, they show up on OW regardless.

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Slightly confused as well, unless X-Men: Apocalypse (releasing this weekend in several int'l territories) destroys it

 

Yeah. Though this explains why 1.2b might not be a lock.

 

5 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

IM3 added "only" $140 million off an $89.3 million weekend. And that one didn't have to face X-men the following weekend. $1.2B is by no means a lock.

 

EDIT: More data from OS thread

 

21 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

IM3 opened with $198.4 million. CW opened with $200.4 million. IM3 ended this weekend with a $664.1 million cume (coming off an $89.3 million weekend) while CW ended this weekend with $645 million (coming off an $84.9 million weekend). It lost over $20 million when compared to IM3 over these past three weekends and is going to face massive competition next week (another superhero movie). $1.2B isn't gone just yet, but it's getting less and less likely every day.  My current prediction is $780 million OS, $423 million DOM, $1.203 million WW (below IM3 I'm afraid).

 

$1.3B on the other hand is totally gone, that's for sure.

19 minutes ago, Olive said:

It's already 20M behind IM3 with a smaller third weekend.

 

Edited May 15, 2016 by a2knet

[Maxmoser3]

While its your typical second weekend of May. Things weren't too bad.                                            Captain America:Civil War still managed to lead the weekend and it's second weekend drop was around the same field as Avengers:Age Of Ultron and Iron Man 3, with decent word of mouth Captain Anerica should still hold up just fine and make north of $420 million domestic.                                            In second place, Disney's The Jungle Book passed $300 million this weekend it should manage to hold up strong with the weeks to come and make $355 million domestic. Also, this has been the second time this year that a studio has shared the top spot two weekends in a row along with Twentieth Century Fox with Deadpool/Kung Fu Panda 3, and Kung Fu Panda 3/The Revenant.                    Among the two new releases this weekend, Money Monsger debuted with a solid estimated $15 million this weekend which exceeds expectations and is better than other related  George Clooney debuts such as Hail, Caesar!($11.4 million), and The Ides Of March($10.4 million). Money Monster also has decent word of mouth(B+ cinemascore which is the same rating I would the give the film), and with not big adult related competiton(unless you include The Nice Guys). Money Monster should be a decent win for Sony and make its way close to $50 million domestic.                 Other new release, BH Tilt's supernatural horror flick The Darkness debuted with an estimated $5.1 million this weekend which is better than BH Tilt/High Top Releasing's The Green Inferno($3.7 million) with typical mixed word of mouth (C cinemascore),and how horror films usually die out quick. The Darkness should crawl its way near $10 million domestic.                          Although coming off Mother's Day weekend last weekend, Mother's Day took a big dive for the weekend. If larger drops ensue more for the flick a total near $35 million seems likely.                                       Disney Animation film, Zootopia still chugging along on the top 10 this weekend, and made a less than 15% drop this weekend! Although, Angry Birds debuts this Friday Zootopia is still a big win for Disney and should come close

to $350 million domestic.                    The Huntsman:Winter's War

took it's smallest drop yet this weekend. While its a big flop for universal, and overseas slightly helping out. With, more bigger releases on the calendar The Huntsman will probably go quickly and should come close to $50 million domestic.                                            Keanu took an alright drop this weekend, but with Neighbors 2 coming out on Friday. Keanu could likely take a dive. Keanu should still likely purr close to $25 million domestic.                                                Barbershop:The Next Cut also took an alright drop and should

make around $55 million by the end of its run.                                     The Boss took a solid drop this weekend as well, and should likely make its way close to $65 million domestic. 

[EmpireCity]

35 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Well they haven't truly had a breakout film since GOTG.   

It's unlikely that Dr. Strange will be the next one, the subject matter is less appealing. I think that film performs in line with  Ant-man, Thor, and CA:the first avenger. 

In fact I'm not sure if Marvel has any surprise box office performances left. Especially since they aren't the only cinematic universe  in the game anymore. 

Don't get me wrong, they're far from being in trouble, its just not going to be as fun following  their films at the office. 

 

I think domestically that Black Panther will be a breakout performance.