MEH-MORIAL DAY WEEKEND BOX OFFICE | Abandon all hope, the box office is dead. 3 day weekend #s X-Men 65M, Alice 28.1M, Angry Birds 18.7M, Civil War 15.1M, Neighbors 9.1M. Bad openings, horrible holdovers.

[Gopher]

We've come to a point where nobody is recommending these bigger Marvel movies to new viewers and they're not generating rewatchability even among fans. I dug Civil War and I have no desire to revisit it - there's nothing I missed. 

 

This is the last Marvel movie like that for a little while though. The next three feel like their own things (even Thor 3). IWP1 will probably pull something between CW and AOU and P2 will see a Deathly Hallows-type jump. They're never gonna repeat Avengers again... if they do it's probably going to come from one of their weirdest superheroes and most different films. 

Edited May 28, 2016 by Gopher

[Rman823]

13 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Deadline mentions Rotten Tomatoes in box office report saying Apocalypse got "God Awful" reviews , lol

If that's "God Awful" then I would hate to see what you would call Fant4stic's reviews. 

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Rman823 said:

If that's "God Awful" then I would hate to see what you would call Fant4stic's reviews. 

God motherfucking awful, I guess.

[Kalo]

Wow, X-Men is actually doing quite well and Alice is practically bombing. that makes me happy. 

[superweirdo87]

8 minutes ago, IMojammer said:

 

Yup, it'll be just about even with Iron Man 3 after this weekend after having a $12m lead at its peak.

 

 

Here:

And here:

 

It seems like your most optimistic projections would have it at 595 WW, and it seems like the OW figures are coming in slightly lower than expected, and the multiplier seems sure to be weak.

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

so Civil War will barely beat IM3 domestic or could fall short?

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

so Civil War will barely beat IM3 domestic or could fall short?

 

It's going to be really close. It was 11M ahead after the 2nd weekend, 9.5M ahead after the 3rd weekend, and depending on what the Friday number ends up being, it will be 5-7M ahead going out of this weekend with lower dailies in all likelihood. With a jam packed June coming up, it will end up being determined by theater loss.

 

<2.3x legs on a 90% RT rated, A CinemaScore and great Flixster and ComScore rated movie is crazy for sure.

[vc2002]

good riddance on Alice 2. Just like Wrath of the Titans. It's gonna fall hard because the 1st film benefitted hugely from being the 3D movie following directly after Avatar.

 

 

[MarvelandDC]

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

It's going to be really close. It was 11M ahead after the 2nd weekend, 9.5M ahead after the 3rd weekend, and depending on what the Friday number ends up being, it will be 5-7M ahead going out of this weekend with lower dailies in all likelihood. With a jam packed June coming up, it will end up being determined by theater loss.

 

<2.3x legs on a 90% RT rated, A CinemaScore and great Flixster and ComScore rated movie is crazy for sure.

 

That what happens when you release to many superhero movies to close together. Not everyone is going to see them all.

 

Also IM3 didn't have much competition like CW back in 2013.

Edited May 28, 2016 by MarvelandDC

[a2k]

[Gopher]

8 minutes ago, MarvelandDC said:

 

That what happens when you release to many superhero movies to close together. Not everyone is going to see them all.

 

Also IM3 didn't have much competition like CW back in 2013.

 

IM3 had Trek in weekend three and 150m of competition in weekend four. It was also a movie that widely pissed off the faithful (for some reason). 

 

This is where Marvel as a TV show (which make no mistake is exactly what the Russs are making) starts to falter. Not everybody is going to want to rewatch the fifth season. 

Edited May 28, 2016 by Gopher

[grim22]

The top 10 films (chart building) for Memorial Day weekend May 27-30, 2016  per industry estimates as of 8:30PM:

1). X-Men: Apocalypse (FOX), 4,150 theaters / $27M Fri. (includes $8.2M previews) / 3-day cume: $68M /4-day: $82.6M Wk 1

2). Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney), 3,763 theaters / $9M Fri. (includes $1.5M previews) / 3-day cume: $30.9M /4-day: $40M/Wk 1

3). The Angry Birds Movie (SONY/ROVIO), 3,932 theaters (0)/ $5.1M Fri.(-53%) / 3-day cume: $22M (-42%)/4-DAY: $30.2M /Total cume: $77.8M/ Wk 2

4). Captain America: Civil War (Disney), 3,395 theaters (-831) / $4.1M Fri. (-52%)/ 3-day cume: $16.6M (-50%) /4-day: $21.5M/ Total cume: $379M/ Wk 4

5). Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (UNI), 3,416 theaters (+32)/ $2.6M Fri. (-70%)/ 3-day cume: $9.3M (-57%)/4-day: $11.7M/Total cume: $41M/ Wk 2

6). The Jungle Book (DIS), 2,523 theaters (-937) / $1.8M Fri. (-33%) / 3-day cume: $7.8M (-29%)/4-day: $10.7M/ Total cume: $342.2M / Wk 7

7). The Nice Guys (WB), 2,865 theaters (0)/ $1.8M Fri. (-55%) / 3-day cume: $6.8M (-39%)/4-day: $8.7M/Total: $24.1M/ Wk 2

8). Money Monster (SONY), 2,315 theaters (-789) / $1.1M Fri. (-45%) / 3-day cume: $4.4M (-38%)/4-day: $5.7M/Total cume: $35.3M/Wk 3

9.) Love & Friendship (AMZ/RSA), 493 theaters (+446) / $638K Fri. (+32o%) / 3-day cume: $2.7M (+381%)/4-day:$3.5M /Total cume: $4.5M/Wk 3

10.) Zootopia (DIS), 572 theaters (-805) / $173K Fri. (-55%) / 3-day cume: $812K(-52%) / 4-day: $1.1M/Total cume: $336.2M / Wk 13

11). The Darkness (HTR), 1,004 theaters (-765)/ $190K Fri. (-73%) / 3-day cume: $696K (-69%)/4-day: $852K/Total Cume: $10M/ Wk 3

12.) The Lobster (A24), 116 theaters (+92) / $188K Fri. (+55%)/ 3-day cume: $657K (+69%)/4-day: $845K/Total cume: $2.1M/Wk 3

[Outrageous!]

28 minutes ago, Gopher said:

We've come to a point where nobody is recommending these bigger Marvel movies to new viewers and they're not generating rewatchability even among fans. I dug Civil War and I have no desire to revisit it - there's nothing I missed. 

 

This is the last Marvel movie like that for a little while though. The next three feel like their own things (even Thor 3). IWP1 will probably pull something between CW and AOU and P2 will see a Deathly Hallows-type jump. They're never gonna repeat Avengers again... if they do it's probably going to come from one of their weirdest superheroes and most different films. 

 

Squirrel Girl.  That's who I thought of from your last sentence, but she alone is not going to bring in a $200 million plus opening weekend if she ever got the chance to have a starring role in her own movie.

 

14 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

It's going to be really close. It was 11M ahead after the 2nd weekend, 9.5M ahead after the 3rd weekend, and depending on what the Friday number ends up being, it will be 5-7M ahead going out of this weekend with lower dailies in all likelihood. With a jam packed June coming up, it will end up being determined by theater loss.

 

<2.3x legs on a 90% RT rated, A CinemaScore and great Flixster and ComScore rated movie is crazy for sure.

 

Could news about the Netflix deal for Disney movies starting in September undercut the later weeks of the box office run of movies like CA: CW?  Considering the current size of the MCU, Netflix sounds like it would be ideal for people who don't want Marvel movie after Marvel movie in a gigantic box set.

[bapi]

Alice bombing and X-Men under 70m. That's very, very dissapointing. Don't understand why they didn't make X4 instead.

[Mango]

$27 million? Yikes. That's under $20 million for the Friday day business. That would lead to a mid $60 million 3-day. At over 4000 spots with most having several screens, those are some pretty empty theaters.

[straggler]

Rth said about $30 million for X-Men on Friday so I'm going with that.  Will make $700 million on a $170 million budget. That's fine. 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, straggler said:

Rth said about $30 million for X-Men on Friday so I'm going with that.  Will make $700 million on a $170 million budget. That's fine. 

 

Oh, okay. Yeah I trust Rth's numbers a lot more than Deadline.

[Truckasaurus]

47 minutes ago, Gopher said:

We've come to a point where nobody is recommending these bigger Marvel movies to new viewers and they're not generating rewatchability even among fans. I dug Civil War and I have no desire to revisit it - there's nothing I missed. 

 

This is the last Marvel movie like that for a little while though. The next three feel like their own things (even Thor 3). IWP1 will probably pull something between CW and AOU and P2 will see a Deathly Hallows-type jump. They're never gonna repeat Avengers again... if they do it's probably going to come from one of their weirdest superheroes and most different films. 

 

I have a theory about this. I call it the Game of Thrones syndrome.

 

Basically, in this day and age of longform storytelling, binge-watching and Netflix, people care less about the experience and more about what's going to happen next. The Avengers series is, for all intents and purposes, the cinematic equivalent of a show like Game of Thrones. Moviegoers weren't excited for Civil War, the movie. They were excited for what Civil War would mean for the unraveling of the MCU. This explains why CW is not having as much repeat viewings as previous entries, despite better reviews. Everyone flocked to theaters on opening weekend because they wanted to know what happened. After they got that, the rest seemed like an afterthought. There's a reason why GotG and Ant-Man had better holds than AoU or CW, and it's because they felt like self-contained stories, with brand new characters we liked hanging out with for a couple of hours. So we came back for seconds. In AoU and CW, we've already seen and known these characters. They've been established. The Avengers is probably going to be Marvel's highest grossing movie ever when all is said and done, because it's the foundation of everything. That was the movie everyone wanted to see, the movie that got the GA talking about. Now, four years later, this series is not going to earn more viewers. Regulars are still going to stick around, movie after movie, during opening weekend. But a lot of people are either going to wait for CW to come out on home-video or be satisfied in reading an internet summary, just so they can be a part of the conversation. 

 

Some people will argue that this is bad for Marvel, and even that CW was a disappointment, but make no mistake - this is probably the best-case scenario Marvel could've possibly have gotten. It's amazing that they've mantained this level of creative consistency and audience retention after 13 movies. We've reached a point where we take $170M/$400M Marvel movies for granted because we know they can, and have, done better. They pull insane numbers year after year and we just sort of gloss over them. 

[a2k]

DOFP did 2.57x of the 3-Day ow of 90.8m

If APOC does 2.4x of the 3-Day (68m), it will get 163m.

[Mango]

Civil War is doing pretty damn good