Weekend #s June 3-5: TMNT2 35.25m, X:A 22.3m, MBY 18.27m, Alice 10.69m, Birds 9.775m

[Mango]

I think Star Trek Beyond is going to do around $150 million. 

 

Hoping Bourne really blows up, but that's mostly because I'm super hyped for it. It's been a while since Ultimatum though, I don't think it's going to quite top that.

 

Suicide Squad depends on quality. It'll have a solid opening at the least.

 

Not sure about Pets.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Mango

[Finnick]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

At this point? Nope. There is zero buzz whatsoever.

Poor Paramount from the top grossing studio years before to the pathetic 6th place among the big six!!!!!!

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Popstar was solid, very funny. Another good movie that is completely flopping.

[Fancyarcher]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I'm starting to believe Ghostbusters is gonna be massive. The curiosity factor is through the roof and it actually looks distinctive, especially when compared to the majority of this summer's tentpoles.

 

The Ghostbusters remake could do well, but it's gigantic budget probably ensures it won't make such a a big profit, especially when it likely won't pull huge numbers overseas.

Edited June 5, 2016 by Daniel Dylan Davis

[mahnamahna]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Nutty that the only non-sequel to make $75M+ this year but not reach $300M so far is The Angry Birds Movie. I'd like to think the year will start producing some midrange hits soon, but we're in June now so maybe it really is the year of feast or famine.

 

 

TMNT 2: $75-95 million DOM 

The Conjuring 2: $90-120 million DOM 

Central Intelligence: $130-230 million DOM (could see this being a huge breakout hit) 

The BFG: $70-110 million DOM. 

Ghostbusters: $80 million-180 million DOM.

Ice Age - Collision Course: $80-130 million DOM 

Bad Moms: $60-110 million DOM 

The Founder: $70-120 million DOM. 

Pete's Dragon: $75-135 million DOM. 

Sausage Party: $60-100 million DOM. 

 

All could end up $75 million+ DOM, plus there's some solid hits beyond that.

 

X-Men: $145-165 million DOM.

Independence Day 2: $150-250 million DOM. 

Star Trek Beyond: $135-185 million DOM. 

Jason Bourne: $160-260 million DOM. 

 

And some blockbusters

 

Finding Dory: $275-475 million DOM.

The Secret Lives of Pets: $175-350 million DOM. 

Suicide Squad: $225-325 million DOM. 

 

After Finding Dory, there's really nothing that I can see completely consuming the market. There's some breathing room for some mid-range hits. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2016 by mahnamahna

[WrathOfHan]

Long range predictions for TMNT/X/Birds and next weekends releases

 

 

 

TMNT:

 

Remainder of this week: 11M (46.3M total)

Jun 10: 14.5M (6M weekdays, 66.8M total)

Jun 17: 5.8M (3.3M weekdays, 75.9M total)

Jun 24: 2.9M (1.7M weekdays, 80.5M total)

Jul 1: 1.3M (700k weekdays, 82.5M total)

35.3/84 (2.38x)

 

X-Men:

 

Remainder of the week: 7.5M (124M total)

Jun 10: 11M (3.7M weekdays, 138.7M total)

Jun 17: 4.4M (1.7M weekdays, 144.8M total)

Jun 24: 2.2M (900k weekdays, 147.9M total)

Jul 1: 900k (148.8M total)

65.8/151 (2.29x)

 

Angry Birds:

 

Remainder of this week: 4.7M (91.4M total)

Jun 10: 5M (2.5M weekdays, 98.9M total)

Jun 17: 2M (1M weekdays, 101.9M total)

Jun 24: 1.2M (700k weekdays, 103.8M total)

38.2/106 (2.77x)

 

 

Next weekend's releases:

 

 

 

 

Now You See Me:

 

Jun 10: 19M (7M weekdays, 26M total)

Jun 17: 7.6M (3.4M weekdays, 37M total)

Jun 24: 3.8M (1.7M weekdays, 42.5M total)

Jul 1: 1.5M (800k weekdays, 44.8M total)

19/47 (2.47x)

 

Warcraft:

 

Jun 10: 17M (6.8M weekdays, 23.8M total)

Jun 17: 6.8M (3M weekdays, 33.6M total)

Jun 24: 3.1M (1.3M weekdays, 38M total)

Jul 1: 1.3M (600k weekdays, 39.9M total)

17/42 (2.47x)

 

 

The Conjuring:

 

Jun 10: 52M (23M weekdays, 75M total)

Jun 17: 23.4M (13M weekdays, 111.4M total)

Jun 24: 13M (6.3M weekdays, 131.3M total)

Jul 1: 5M (2.4M weekdays, 138.7M total)

Jul 8: 2.4M (1.3M weekdays, 142.4M total)

Jul 15: 1.2M (600k weekdays, 144.2M total)

Jul 22: 400k (144.6M total)

52/146 (2.8x)

 

Come the fuck at me  June 17th and July 1st are going to have some terrible holds.

Edited June 5, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[eddyxx]

This weekend is 

[franfar]

12 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

TMNT 2: $75-95 million DOM 

The Conjuring 2: $90-120 million DOM 

Central Intelligence: $130-230 million DOM (could see this being a huge breakout hit) 

The BFG: $70-110 million DOM. 

Ghostbusters: $80 million-180 million DOM.

Ice Age - Collision Course: $80-130 million DOM 

Bad Moms: $60-110 million DOM 

The Founder: $70-120 million DOM. 

Pete's Dragon: $75-135 million DOM. 

Sausage Party: $60-100 million DOM. 

 

All could end up $75 million+ DOM, plus there's some solid hits beyond that.

 

X-Men: $145-165 million DOM.

Independence Day 2: $150-250 million DOM. 

Star Trek Beyond: $135-185 million DOM. 

Jason Bourne: $160-260 million DOM. 

 

And some blockbusters

 

Finding Dory: $275-475 million DOM.

The Secret Lives of Pets: $175-350 million DOM. 

Suicide Squad: $225-325 million DOM. 

 

After Finding Dory, there's really nothing that I can see completely consuming the market. There's some breathing room for some mid-range hits. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Those are some really big ranges for those movies

[MrPink]

36 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Popstar was solid, very funny. Another good movie that is completely flopping.

 

 

[MrPink]

57 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

Hmm, well I'm definitely not as high on Ghostbusters as you. I hope it works out tho. Agree on the other 3, said as much last page

 

Star Trek is a stone cold lock to drop I think, only question is how hard. "Space movies!" audience has been sated by Guardians and the return of STAR WARS, last movie wasn't received all that well, and Idris Elba + Kingsman actress in goofy makeup isn't selling anyone new

 

They will give John Cho a more prominent role and Asians will flock out in droves! 
 

I WILL BE THERE FOR JOHN CHO

[mahnamahna]

24 minutes ago, fracfar said:

 Those are some really big ranges for those movies

I was just pointing out the general range for all of them. 

 

I expect most to fall toward the middle of those ranges. 

[grim22]

From HSX -potential spoilers for ID4-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

I actually watched Independence Day 2 around a month ago (some general thoughts inside)

Posted by: reelreptile on Jun 04, 17:07 in response to notfabio's post What gives me pause, is that early indicators like the...

 

The new actors all suck badly, Liam Hemsworth, Maika Monroe and the guy who plays Will Smith's son are all charisma vaccuums. The returning actors try their best but it is clear the movie is more interested in blowing stuff up than actually giving us a solid reason for caring.

That said, the CGI looks hilariously off, but this was 2 months before release and there is still time. Most of the destruction is seen in the trailers, no major memorable setpieces this time around unfortunately. The boss-alien is well designed but not something we haven't seen before.

The difference between this, and Jurassic World is that we have seen cities being destroyed over and over in the past 20 years, but there have been no dinosaur movies outside the Jurassic series.

 

 

 

 

[Jake Gittes]

June 17 holds should actually be decent for most movies cause Father's Day.

[moviesRus]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

From HSX -potential spoilers

 

 

  Hide contents

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I mean, I could've told you that Liam Hemsworth would be terrible months ago.

[filmlover]

lol that person said there have been no dinosaur movies other than Jurassic Park. What short memories we have.

 

 

[Chewy]

Just now, filmlover said:

lol that person said there have been no dinosaur movies other than Jurassic Park. What short memories we have.

 

i know right

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

This is why MEG is going to be a huge hit.

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

 

i know right

 

 

 

[Johnny Tran]

I'm being very careful with Suicide Squad. If it's good quality it could do very well but don't expect a monster OW. Internet buzz is still different than GA buzz. I don't think SS will see a lot of families out there. The YouTube views and social media talk is due more to comic book Fandom than a casual viewer. Some folks saying an opening north of $100M, that isn't going to happen. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'm being very careful with Suicide Squad. If it's good quality it could do very well but don't expect a monster OW. Internet buzz is still different than GA buzz. I don't think SS will see a lot of families out there. The YouTube views and social media talk is due more to comic book Fandom than a casual viewer. Some folks saying an opening north of $100M, that isn't going to happen. 

Because that was a big problem for Deadpool