July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[WrathOfHan]

Realistically I'd say The Purge is looking at a 37M or so weekend assuming a 10% decrease tomorrow and 15% decrease on Sunday. Legs will be interesting; the first had a 1.89x while the second had a 2.42x. The first had absolute shit WOM and dropped 75% in its second weekend, that won't happen to this one. Anarchy didn't exactly have pretty holds either (64.8% drop in its second weekend) but a soft third weekend drop helped bump the multi up. WOM isn't as good as Anarchy and this has to face Lights Out in its fourth weekend. I think it'll have slightly worse holds than Anarchy the next two weekends then absolutely collapse on July 22. Its multi will probably be around 2.1-2.2x

[Rman823]

1 hour ago, DAR said:

Honestly I rewatched Thor the Dark World a few weeks ago, there's not one memorable moment in it,

Not true. The end credit scene with The Collector is pretty memorable. Although it's sad that the only thing memorable from the movie isn't part of the actual movie.

[Murgatroyd]

1 hour ago, Free State of Tele said:

 

It comes from back in the day when American companies made real movies.

 

[MikeQ]

Excellent for both Dory and Purge.

 

I suppose considering expectations, The Legend of Tarzan is doing "not bad", but still pretty darn poor for the scale and budget of the film. I suspect it will have mixed WOM. That, combined with an inflated holiday opening weekend, will likely result in so-so legs, and it should finish under $100 million total domestic.

 

BFG looks like the clear loser, at least in terms of opening weekend. It's fortunes depend on where it falls for the Friday and weekend. If it falls on the high end and proves to have decent-enough legs, it could do okay. But still pretty poor considering budget. Personally, Spielberg-directed films don't get me hyped up anymore on name alone, because I can't remember the last Spielberg film I actually really enjoyed. 

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited July 2, 2016 by MikeQ

[a2k]

14m would be a 60% bump for DORY.

14

16

15

9

45m/54m weekend - 384.4m cume

~115.5m away from 500m after a 54m 4-day

TS3 added 114m more to it's cume after a 43m 4-day

[Ryan Reynolds]

cinemascores great for openers BFG and Tarzan A-

[picores]

With this openings both Tarzan and BFG has a real shot at 100m DOM. Not great in any case, but better than most people has been expecting.

 

If Dory makes at least 14m on Friday, I'd say 500m becomes a lock.

[POTUS 2020]

Deadline due out in an hour or so. With Friday estimates and weekend projections continuing to be way off the mark, they have increased their staff and its rumored they are using a new source from BOT to better their numbers.

Edited July 2, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Ryan Reynolds]

what would be more shocking, Tarzan making over 30m for the weekend or they spent 180m on it

[a2k]

If Tarzan does 12.5m Friday, it has a realistic shot at 40m 4-day

 

12.5 (2.5 + 10)

12

10

6

34.5m/40.5m

 

Better than projections but still very bad compared to the budget.

[a2k]

What if LOT legs it out above IDR Dom 

[Mojoguy]

The Purge will be made REAL when Trump becomes President!

This is scarier than any horror movie!

[La Binoche]

The concept of The Purge has really captured the public's imagination, to the point where the actual quality of the movies doesn't seem to matter. The first movie was shitty, the song was just OK, but people keep coming back for more. It's especially impressive because it's been a year of discriminating audiences when it comes to crappy sequels. Idgi. 

[trifle]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

The concept of The Purge has really captured the public's imagination, to the point where the actual quality of the movies doesn't seem to matter. The first movie was shitty, the song was just OK, but people keep coming back for more. It's especially impressive because it's been a year of discriminating audiences when it comes to crappy sequels. Idgi. 

 

The population of the world is vast and allows all sorts of things to be popular with enough people to make money.

[Mojoguy]

When the real Purge comes, I pray Frank Grillo is going to kill the hell out of anyone that that could be a danger to me.

[Blankments]

6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

imagine if you tried to kill a co-worker on purge night but u failed and u still gotta see him when you go into work the next morning. i hate awkward situations like that.

Congrats Coolio, this post made me actually burst out laughing #PostOfTheDay

[Nova]

I wonder if people actually know how the box office works or how the movie industry works...I am thinking not based on the conversation I just had with someone who claims "Movies like The Conjuring, The Purge, and The Shallows are terrible films being made at the expense of better films with better roles for more diverse people." Like yes the combined budget of all 3 films at $67M, is the reason why we don't have all these films with better roles for more diverse people. Needless to say when I responded with that I was called a racist who only wants white people to rule Hollywood. Apparently using facts and stats doesn't matter anymore. Like what terrible examples to use to try and prove that point. 

[Nova]

41 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Deadline due out in an hour or so. With Friday estimates and weekend projections continuing to be way off the mark, they have increased their staff and its rumored they are using a new source from BOT to better their numbers.

From Deadline: "With The Purge having a $16M Friday, we are looking at a 3 day cume of roughly $30.5M and a 4 day holiday weekend cume of $35.2M which is way better than studio and insider estimates." 

 

 

That wasn't actually from Deadline, but I bet some people thought it was. The more ridiculous, the more Deadline it is. 

[MovieMan89]

34 minutes ago, a2knet said:

What if LOT legs it out above IDR Dom 

Any mainstream movie of the decade deserves a higher gross than IDR, so good for LOT if it does. 

[Blankments]

4 hours ago, Baumer said:

 

Dory is so powerful it even got me to pay for it in fucking 3D.  Yep, I contributed $15.00 to this fucking stupid fishes box office.

Jesus, Baumer. I've seen it twice and I only paid $4 to see it in 2D the first time. Guess you must be a bigger Pixar fan than me