July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[Mojoguy]

That Purge number is pretty good. I could be speaking too soon, but I guess the year off didn't make a difference after all.

I actually thinking waiting a year and centering the Purge plot about Election Year and this year's real election was pretty smart of them!

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, UrosepsisFace said:

The three new movies might have the exact same numbers when the weekend is done

 

Purge 3: ~30-40 million and a major win for Universal because of the low budget

BFG: ~30-40 million and despite the 140 million budget, very little will be said cuz Disney

Tarzan: ~30-40 million and due to the 180 million budget, the sky will fall for WB

 

I don't see how this is remotely possible.  Tarzan and BFG won't come close to 40 in my opinion.

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Unless the partnership between them wasn't exactly a fortuitous one (which it wasn't, the partnership mostly produced flops). Now Spielberg as back at home where he's arguably had his most success.

 

None of the preceding Spielberg/Disney films were flops though

 

War Horse: $66m budget $178m ww

Lincoln:  $65m / $275m ww

Bridge Of Spies:   $40m/ / $165m ww

 

I read that one of the sticking points in continuing the deal is that Dreamworks planned to co finance some of Disney's productions which was more viable before Disney decided to pretty much became self financing for all their other tent poles.

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

10m budget for Purge. It needs to be said again.

 

Platinum Dunes is going to need Purge 3 money to off set the snafu of Turtles.

[The Futurist]

6 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

10m budget for Purge. It needs to be said again.

 

The cost of the catering and security on Civil War, got it.

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

None of the preceding Spielberg/Disney films were flops though

 

War Horse: $66m budget $178m ww

Lincoln:  $65m / $275m ww

Bridge Of Spies:   $40m/ / $165m ww

 

I read that one of the sticking points in continuing the deal is that Dreamworks planned to co finance some of Disney's productions which was more viable before Disney decided to pretty much became self financing for all their other tent poles.

You forgot The Help, which was also big.

 

But for the most part it was a string of duds like The Fifth Estate and People Like Us and Delivery Man and Need for Speed.

[department store basement]

Did Swiss Army Man have Thursday previews?

[baumer]

Just now, department store basement said:

Did Swiss Army Man have Thursday previews?

 

I doubt it.  It was expanding on Friday, doubt that would include Thursday previews.

[UrosepsisFace]

2 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

I don't see how this is remotely possible.  Tarzan and BFG won't come close to 40 in my opinion.

 

Variety had both doing 20-30+ million initially. 30+ isn't so far off from 30-40 million. Assuming BFG can take the Angry Birds trajectory and Tarzan takes the Hercules trajectory, both suggested by Box Office Mojo, then 30-40 over the 4 days isn't impossible. 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, UrosepsisFace said:

 

Variety had both doing 20-30+ million initially. 30+ isn't so far off from 30-40 million. Assuming BFG can take the Angry Birds trajectory and Tarzan takes the Hercules trajectory, both suggested by Box Office Mojo, then 30-40 over the 4 days isn't impossible. 

 

30-40 is a huge range for these three films.  So are they going to open to the same number or in that range?

[Nova]

Just now, UrosepsisFace said:

 

Variety had both doing 20-30+ million initially. 30+ isn't so far off from 30-40 million. Assuming BFG can take the Angry Birds trajectory and Tarzan takes the Hercules trajectory, both suggested by Box Office Mojo, then 30-40 over the 4 days isn't impossible. 

That's not happening. Tarzan's audience is also mixed in with The Purge's (and The Shallows) along with IDR's. The BFG's audience is also Finding Dory's. Tarzan and BFG will both be under $30M for the 4 day while The Purge will get over $40M for the 4 day. 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

That's not happening. Tarzan's audience is also mixed in with The Purge's (and The Shallows) along with IDR's. The BFG's audience is also Finding Dory's. Tarzan and BFG will both be under $30M for the 4 day while The Purge will get over $40M for the 4 day. 

 

I think you are generalizing a bit.  Both could still go over 30.  Tarzan had a preview number that could get it over 30.

[The Futurist]

Hollywood should go full Deadpool-Retard by being Meta all the time and having Harley Quinn doing a cameo or having a reference in Tarzan.

 

Cross branding, that s the future.

 

Hollywood : Call Me.

 

 

Edited July 1, 2016 by The Futurist

[grim22]

36 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

Plus, it was good. BFG was a little slow-moving, though, so not sure if WOM will be all that hot.

 

For me, the biggest surprise of the summer has been that Angry Birds actually turned out to be pretty good.

 

Angry Birds was about as good as a movie made to justify the scene where birds launch themselves at a pigs castle using a catapult could possibly be. I enjoyed the movie for sure.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

I think you are generalizing a bit.  Both could still go over 30.  Tarzan had a preview number that could get it over 30.

*Could* however just like IDR's WOM sunk it over the weekend last weekend, the same will happen with Tarzan. 

[filmlover]

27 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

That Purge number is pretty good. I could be speaking too soon, but I guess the year off didn't make a difference after all.

Timing it with an election year, especially one in which there's the looming threat of a Trump presidency, was a pretty genius move tbh.

[mahnamahna]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

 

Lol. Pets is doing waaaay more than 35 mill OW

 

I know that lol 

 

But $35 million is the absolute worst-case scenario for Pets next weekend. That would be near impossible with Dory slowing down, BFG not taking off and Illumination's stellar marketing, plus it seems to be a solid family film. 

 

I was just pointing out how there is no real scenario where Dory finishes above Pets next weekend and thus, Pets will be #1. 

 

Personally, I'm predicting $70-85 million OW with a 3.2x-3.7x. 

19 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

Sure. But 1941 still came out during that period and it bombed. I liked it, but apparently I was the only one.

1

That would've plummeted regardless of the director. He didn't become an A-lister until Raiders/E.T. came back-to-back. Jaws was his breakthrough, Close Encounters a solid follow-up, but 1941 was more the calm before the storm.

 

Then, he had Raiders, E.T., Poltergeist, Gremlins, two more Indys, The Color Purple, BTTF, Goonies, American Tail & Land Before Time (both doing far better than the 70s/80s Disney films except Oliver, Mermaid and Rescuers), Roger Rabbit, Hook, Jurassic Park and Schindler's List over the course of 12 years.

 

He definitely had more drawing power than just about any other director at the time (even James Cameron pre-Titanic). 

18 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So Purge 3 might have a chance at making the summer's top 15?

 

And it looks like this weekend will confirm nobody asked for a Tarzan movie.

 

RIP classic pulp genre.

 

1. Finding Dory
2. Captain America - Civil War
3. The Secret Lives of Pets
4. Suicide Squad
5. Jason Bourne
6. Ghostbusters
7. Star Trek Beyond
8. X-Men - Apocalypse
9. Central Intelligence
10. Ice Age - Collision Course
11. Pete's Dragon
12. The Angry Birds Movie
13. The Conjuring 2
14. The Purge - Election Year
15. Bad Moms/Sausage Party/IDR 

If IDR plummets and Tarzan/BFG don't have strong Fridays, it could definitely happen. Plus, Bad Moms, Pete's Dragon and Ice Age 5 could do sub-$100 million DOM, which would make entering the top 15 easier for Purge 3. 

[James]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

*Could* however just like IDR's WOM sunk it over the weekend last weekend, the same will happen with Tarzan. 

You all act like it is a done deal that Tarzan will have bad WOM. But looking at the Audience's rating on RT, both it and BFG are at 69%, but Tarzan has twice the numbers of voters compared to BFG. Plus, BFG has the advantage of Spielberg and his fanbase. Things look the same on IMDB. It looks to me like Tarzan's WOM is at least as strong as BFG's if online indicators are accurate at all. 

[The Futurist]

Dory is a freaking monster,  I am really curious how it s gonna behave against Ice Age & Pets.

 

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Dory is a freaking monster,  I am really curious how it s gonna behave against Ice Age & Pets.

 

 

Toy Story 3 dropped only 30% when Despicable Me opening. Wouldn't be surprised if that happened again here.