SUICIDE SQUAD WEEKEND THREAD | New REVISED SUNDAY NUMBER 134m FROM GURU ON PG 212 | 267.1M WW OW | Nine Lives 6.5 OW |No Spoilers Allowed!!! | ACCOUNT SALES THIS WEEKEND - see first post for details !!

[moviesRus]

If it needs $750-800m WW though and without a release in China, it certainly doesn't help if its domestic legs are terrible. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Did you notice that you're comparing Suicide Squad to the finale of a franchise?

 

 

 

Finale factor is overrated. 

[somebody85]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Frontloading* + mixed-to-bad WOM. 

 

Once more, with feeling, two things can be equally true:  1)  There is a core of GA that can be appealed to and will rush out to see DC films OW.  2)  The trends are showing warning signs that WB better not ignore OR overreact to.

 

Not really sure what else there is to say.  This film is doing waaaaaaaaaay more than was expected not even six months ago.  Even if WB got 75% of the potential audience to show up the OW, that's still money in the bank for them.  Lots and lots of money.  The warning sign is taking that audience for granted in the future.

 

* Frontloading has been getting worse and worse every year, and I think with the third film of the DCEU, it is fair to say there will be frontloading if marketing did its job.

I definitely can't see Wonder Woman opening this big, even if it gets glowing reviews. This had that IT factor. It was an event film.

Edited August 7, 2016 by somebody85

[Johnny Tran]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

Tracking had it at $140M the day before it released. Then once the movie got released it made $20.5M in previews and $65M on OD so yes when you put it in that context it's failing. When you call it a $125M its not. But context is everything. 

 

I'm more interested in how the 2nd weekend goes. I'm anticipating at least 65% drop.

[Jay Beezy]

I think these trades should start considering saying instead of tracking to opening to this number opening weekend, it's tracking to opening to this number opening day and then dependent on WOM it'll make this if it's good or this if it's bad for the weekend.

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don't feel you ever properly gauged the hype for it though and that skewed your expectations to be well below what they should have. 

 

Or the other view is that I didn't allow myself to get carried away by a bunch of crazy fans, and was reasonably in line with expectations (in terms of domestic total, anyway).  

 

edit: if you check my predictions this week (in grim's game and the Summer Game), I had it at 19m previews, 64m OD, and 127.5m OW.

[Water Bottle]

So here's food for thought:

 

If GA don't know the difference between Marvel and DC* then is the poor reception of SS really a killer for the DCEU? I mean if you ask an average movie-goer, can they tell you all the different CBM cinematic universes?

 

If so then maybe the DCEU isn't doomed like we think it is. After all if Doctor Strange is good and successful, then that'll help alleviate concerns about WW with the GA. So in a way, Marvel could be helping DC out.

 

*Assuming you care to generalize the GA which is a huge group with multiple sub-groups. There's likely be a big part of the GA that knows the difference between Marvel and DC and there's likely a big part that does. There's a part that might associate Marvel with quality. They might not.

[cannastop]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Finale factor is overrated. 

I was trying to make a joke about Suicide Squad killing the DCEU like DH2 ended the Harry Potter series.

[Jonwo]

Just now, somebody85 said:

I definitely can't see Wonder Woman opening this big, despite even the reviews. This had that IT factor. It was an event film.

 

It won't open as big as BvS and SS but TBH it doesn't have to and it has a much tougher release date than both those films. 

[a2k]

47+41+32=120 would not have seemed disappointing.

65+36+26=127 seems disappointing.

 

the number is great but tough to ignore the trending cause it might hint

 

 

[junkshop36]

1 minute ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

I'm more interested in how the 2nd weekend goes. I'm anticipating at least 65% drop.

 

 

I'm thinking 68%, minimum.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, somebody85 said:

I definitely can't see Wonder Woman opening this big, despite even the reviews. This had that IT factor. It was an event film.

Wonder Woman can be both of those things as well.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

Or the other view is that I didn't allow myself to get carried away by a bunch of crazy fans, and was reasonably in line with expectations (in terms of domestic total, anyway).  

But you weren't reasonably in line with expectations though. You never even got in the neighborhood of saying 65m+ OD. Just because horrible WOM brought the OW closer to what you expected doesn't mean it was a great prediction. It means you got lucky it's having toxic WOM for the ages. 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Did you notice that you're comparing Suicide Squad to the finale of a franchise?

 

 

 

Also, I hope you realize that I might have been looking to poke bears (in a gentle, non-trolly way of course) by bringing up DH2.  Just maybe.  

 

I mean, I may be new to the forums but I ain't THAT new. 

[somebody85]

Just now, Jonwo said:

 

It won't open as big as BvS and SS but TBH it doesn't have to and it has a much tougher release date than both those films. 

Right, no I wasn't saying it had to. I was just saying I don't feel that same WOW factor that made everyone rush out and see this. That happened right from the first comic con trailer.

But who knows maybe the marketing for WW will spark a lot of interest.

[Chewy]

There was a time when Transformers, Pirates, Shrek, etc were all "who cares it's still big" franchises. That goodwill only goes so far

 

Sequels drop and franchises eventually peter out but this kind of WOM, regularly, exacerbates that

[Dementeleus]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

But you weren't reasonably in line with expectations though. You never even got in the neighborhood of saying 65m+ OD. Just because horrible WOM brought the OW closer to what you expected doesn't mean it was a great prediction. It means you got lucky it's having toxic WOM for the ages. 

 

See my edited post for predictions this week.  

[Water Bottle]

2 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

edit: if you check my predictions this week (in grim's game and the Summer Game), I had it at 19m previews, 64m OD, and 127.5m OW.

 

 

Damn Tele. Damn. Kudos to you.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I was trying to make a joke about Suicide Squad killing the DCEU like DH2 ended the Harry Potter series.

 

Sadly Wonder Woman already ruined the joke, otherwise I would have gone along with it.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

But you weren't reasonably in line with expectations though. You never even got in the neighborhood of saying 65m+ OD. Just because horrible WOM brought the OW closer to what you expected doesn't mean it was a great prediction. It means you got lucky it's having toxic WOM for the ages. 

This is like thinking you're a great gambler when you win because the horse in front of yours trips.

 

edit:

 

Gonna acknowledge Tele's foresight by editing this post just like he did with his predictions.

Edited August 7, 2016 by cannastop