Weekend Thread: Accountant 24.7M, Kevin Hart 11.9M, GOTT 11.9M, Peregrine 8.9M

[Krissykins]

34 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Thing is: Ghostbusters, at 220M against a break even point of 288M, is gonna be a money LOSER for Sony, as will Deepwater Horizon (sadly) for Lionsgate. Miss Peregrine is at 150M WW just 3 weeks in and needs low 200's to break even - seems pretty achievable, would make the movie a success. Storks is past 110M WW and needs 140M to break even - may struggle a tiny bit, but it's pretty much locked to happen and it'll make WB a profit. Mag 7 is up to 136M WW, needs 180M to break even - not entirely sure about this one, but it could limp its way there.

 

Personally, I don't think GB is a mega flop or anything, but it's hard to argue against numbers. All of those movies that you name dropped, outside of DH which is inequivocally a failure, came much closer to making their studios profits than GB ever did. As a matter of fact, all of those probably WILL make their studios a profit. That's why they can't exactly be called "bombs", especially when you consider that, maybe Mag 7 aside, none of them had the release date, the blockbuster appeal and the marketing of GB.

 

EDIT: Back on topic, I told y'all - The Accountant had breakout potential. Yeah, I've seen the mixed reviews on RT, but ever since the low 20's dip, it has only grown since, and audience reception has been very solid so far. Plus, DA POWAH OF DA AFFLECK. The man's been killing it all the way back since Gone Girl. If it matched TGOTT's debut or even outpaced it, that would be hilarious.

 

Break even? You're forgetting marketing costs. 

 

Break even is recouping all money spent, not just some of it. 

[Joel M]

7 hours ago, grim22 said:

7.) Magnificent Seven  (SONY), 3,210 theaters (-486) / $1.5M Fri  (-42%)/ 3-day cume: $5.1M (-43%)/Total cume: $84.7M/ Wk 4

 

An ok hold but the performance of this movie is really dissapointing. It's gonna struggle to make 180m WW.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

My curse...did it lift?

 

I'd say not completely cause of the critic reviews, but hey, it's a start.

No. The movie did 1.35M in previews and it won't crack 25M for the full weekend. That is bad.

[Blaze Heatnix]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

No. The movie did 1.35M in previews and it won't crack 25M for the full weekend. That is bad.

 

Given the fact that The Accountant seems to have a low 45 million budget, I think it's quite good if it makes at least 20-22 million this weekend.

 

At least, it's not a flop or a fail, in that regard. That being said, I'm curious to watch it anyway.

[cookie]

3 hours ago, James said:

It's not really the same thing. Ghostbusters made 1.6x it's budget WW. That is pretty bad. Peregrine will likely come close to a 3x. Storks could get a 4x. Mag7 will get a 2.5x. Deepwater is the only movie that's in the same situation as Ghostbusters. The other movies will actually make money. That's the difference.  

 

Can't see Mag 7 doing $220m+ WW when it's going to fall short of $100m domestic and is already out everywhere except Japan.

Edited October 15, 2016 by cookie

[efialtes76]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice  7 min

WB's THE ACCOUNTANT tallied up $9M on Friday and will easily take the #1 spot this weekend.

[MrPink]

52 minutes ago, CJohn said:

No. The movie did 1.35M in previews and it won't crack 25M for the full weekend. That is bad.

 

Considering we were going sub 20 before the previews came in....it did decent.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Considering we were going sub 20 before the previews came in....it did decent.

I am specifically talking about The One's curse. 

[KGator]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

Break even? You're forgetting marketing costs. 

 

Break even is recouping all money spent, not just some of it. 

 

And you are ignoring the secondary revenue streams which can be as much if not MORE than the box office revenue. So considering marketing costs and secondary revenue to be a push is a perfectly valid and defendable approach to these types of rough "profit" estimates.

Edited October 15, 2016 by KGator

[POTUS 2020]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Open Road's MAX STEEL maxxed out with $600k on Friday and will gross less than $2M in its disappointing debut. MST3K...he's all yours.

 

23m23 minutes ago

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

WB's THE ACCOUNTANT tallied up $9M on Friday and will easily take the #1 spot this weekend

 

1m1 minute ago

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

KEVIN HART: WHAT NOW? laughed up nearly $5M on Friday and will score around $13M this weekend.

 

[Incarnadine]

Decent number for TA. I saw it last night and was pleasantly surprised, although I thought Anna was rather underused. I'm rather surprised at the RT score, I don't think I've ever seen a movie bounce back as much (to the upside) after such poor early reviews. When I first checked, the RT score was just 27%, now it's up to 52% (If it was me, I'd put it in the mid 60's)

[Maxmoser3]

A $24-$27 million start isn't bad for The Accountant, and $13-$14 million start for Kevin Hart:What Now? Is really good considering it's a stand-up concert and it's low budget. Max Steel, who cares? It was doomed from the start.

[Jonwo]

Storks will be profitable in the long run but I imagine WB and WAG probably were expecting more but it's more a disappointment than a disaster, 

 

its comparable to other animation studios who hit big with their first film but missed on their second, Hop did a lot worse than Despicable Me for example but just about broke even WW, Robots from Blue Sky did $260m WW on a $75m budget which was good but not great compared to Ice Age, A Bug's Life from Pixar didn't do nearly as well as Toy Story but still a solid hit and Surfs Up from SPA was a failure only doing $149m on a $100m budget 

[POTUS 2020]

1	-	The Accountant	WB	$9,075,000	-	-	3,332	$2,724	$9,075,000	1
2	-	Kevin Hart: What Now?	Uni.	$4,760,000	-	-	2,567	$1,854	$4,760,000	1
3	1	The Girl on the Train (2016)	Uni.	$3,900,000	+111%	-58%	3,241	$1,203	$38,483,595	8
4	2	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	Fox	$2,320,000	+171%	-41%	3,835	$605	$59,252,789	15
5	3	Deepwater Horizon	LG/S	$1,860,000	+127%	-44%	3,403	$547	$44,845,332	15
6	4	The Magnificent Seven (2016)	Sony	$1,520,000	+116%	-41%	3,210	$474	$81,147,562	22
7	5	Storks	WB	$1,410,000	+203%	-31%	3,066	$460	$54,954,046	22
8	8	Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life	LGF	$1,180,000	+312%	-40%	2,822	$418	$10,690,795	8
9	6	Sully	WB	$875,000	+106%	-39%	2,211	$396	$116,286,637	36
10	7	The Birth of a Nation	FoxS	$805,000	+105%	-69%	2,105	$382	$10,333,134	8
11	-	Max Steel	ORF	$637,795	-	-	2,034	$314	$637,795	1
12	9	Masterminds (2016)	Rela.	$505,000	+81%	-58%	2,027	$249	$15,016,406	15
-	-	Priceless (2016)	RAtt.	$290,000	-	-	303	$957	$290,000	1

[James]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Storks is past 110M WW and needs 140M to break even - may struggle a tiny bit, but it's pretty much locked to happen and it'll make WB a profit.

Storks has about 20-25m left in the tank DOM. And it still has a LOT of major OS markets left. Actually, it has most of them left. It opens in UK, France and Poland (plus a other few smaller territories) this weekend, and still has Germany, Japan, South Korea, Italy and a bunch of smaller ones on the way. And t had great holds in the countries it opened to, just like in the US. It will fly past 200m and 250m is very likely. I see it ending somewhere around 270m, which should be enough to turn profit from the theatrical run (add in auxiliary revenue and WB has a nice little hit on their hands). Could've been bigger? Of course. But that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't belong in the flop category. 

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, James said:

Storks has about 20-25m left in the tank DOM. And it still has a LOT of major OS markets left. Actually, it has most of them left. It opens in UK, France and Poland (plus a other few smaller territories) this weekend, and still has Germany, Japan, South Korea, Italy and a bunch of smaller ones on the way. And t had great holds in the countries it opened to, just like in the US. It will fly past 200m and 250m is very likely. I see it ending somewhere around 270m, which should be enough to turn profit from the theatrical run (add in auxiliary revenue and WB has a nice little hit on their hands). Could've been bigger? Of course. But that doesn't change the fact that it doesn't belong in the flop category. 

It is not gonna end with 270M WW lol.

 

It will give WB a solid profit either way, tho.

[James]

As for The Accountant's mid-20s OW, that is better than Argo and The Town. People seem to forget how leggy Affleck's movies are. Now you could argue that the reviews are not comparable, but WOM is. Look at the audience score on RT, that is actually still rising. It stands at 85%, which is the same as The Town and a bit lower than Argo. This will be another badly reviewed movie with excellent legs. I think it will end up around 85-90m, with an outside shot at 100m. 

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, James said:

As for The Accountant's mid-20s OW, that is better than Argo and The Town. People seem to forget how leggy Affleck's movies are. Now you could argue that the reviews are not comparable, but WOM is. Look at the audience score on RT, that is actually still rising. It stands at 85%, which is the same as The Town and a bit lower than Argo. This will be another badly reviewed movie with excellent legs. I think it will end up around 85-90m, with an outside shot at 100m. 

IMO with all the adult competition over the next month or so I'd say this will be lucky to hit 75M. I'm going a tad lower at 68-71M.

[James]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

It is not gonna end with 270M WW lol.

 

It will give WB a solid profit either way, tho.

Bad math. You are right. More like 220-250m.

[James]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

IMO with all the adult competition over the next month or so I'd say this will be lucky to hit 75M. I'm going a tad lower at 68-71M.

Now way it has an under 3x multi. WOM seems to be very good.