Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[TalismanRing]

37 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

In the meantime, Fantastic Beasts doing very good overseas, it's opening ahead of most HP movies in a few key territories, which is interesting, Asia as well. 

 

Not in France, Germany, Australia or the UK from what I'm reading - where it's looking like less than half of the last.  SK is being very good to it and that might bode well for China and Japan.

[grey ghost]

21 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

You're a little obsessed with Warner...

 

A certain few think they can still compete with Disney and Universal. 

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

You're cruel

 

 

 

Don't worry, those estimates usually climb thoughout the weekend. 

[TimmyRiggins]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Not in France, Germany, Australia or the UK from what I'm reading - where it's looking like less than half of the last.  SK is being very good to it and that might bode well for China and Japan.

 

Not France, but doing well in Germany, no numbers for UK, good for Australia it seems, here are the details:

 

On the international side, Newt Scamander and his exotic pals scored bigger numbers than many of the Potter films in some key offshore openings Thursday including Russia, Brazil and Thailand.

The New York-set prequel is off to strong starts across the board for this property that’s somewhat unknown, yet familiar given its pedigree. In family-friendly Latin America, Brazil saw the 30-something wizard Scamander best all of the previous films of The Boy Who Lived save for Deathly Hallows Part 2. The launch there was $1.3M on 1,311 screens for an 84% share of the Top 5.

Also among new plays, Russia was tops with a $1.7M flick of the wand. On 2,602 screens, it had 77% of the Top 5 share. The results surpass the first seven Wizarding World movies and land only slightly behind DH2.

Australia got off to a $1.6M launch on 705 screens. Although it isn’t a direct comp, Warner Bros is using Doctor Strange to highlight Beasts‘ performance in some markets given it’s a recent fall release. The Oz start is 65% higher than that Disney/Marvel title and had an 81% share of the Top 5 yesterday.

Germany opened to $1M on 1,271 screens. With Wednesday sneaks counted, the No-Maj world has brought the cume there to $2M. That’s 91% above Doctor Strange’s opening.

Continuing in Europe, Italy‘s bow was worth $915K on 720. Eastern Europeoverall grossed a collective $950K in 12 markets. Specifically, FBAWTFT has the 2nd biggest WB opening of all-time in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and now the highest opening in the Wizarding World for Ukraine.

In the UAE, FB is the biggest opening of all the Rowling-created titles with $429K on 97 screens for a $4.4K+ average.

Asia opened strongly with Korea on Wednesday (see initial post below), and five more markets were added Thursday. The region was worth $2M including Thailandwhere the opening ranks No. 2 among wizard movies.

Korea upped the ante on Thursday (normally the day that movies release in the market) to take another $1.9M for a $3.5M cume to date. It outranked No. 2 local opener Vanishing Time by over 400%.

Thursday results out of France (where kids don’t have a half-day like they do on Wednesdays) were $684K on 805 screens. The total there is now $2.4M.

There are 16 more markets opening today including Spain, Mexico and the UK. The latter has jockeyed with Japan in the past to be the biggest home for the Potter titles and awareness and buzz are all about on the spinoff. Even the ride into the capitol from London City Airport — which largely services business folk — is festooned with Fantastic Beasts billboards, reminding them to take the kids to the cinema this weekend.

[Fullbuster]

3 minutes ago, Lumos said:

Potter was always a literary phenomenon. The films only did so well because of the sheer number of people who had read the books. There was something special about staying up until midnight to grab the new HP book. Reading it over and over again and picturing in your mind what it would look like on the big screen. The trailers for the films would literally have me at my computer pressing the replay button 30x in a row for an hour. I'd go over every frame thinking "wow that looks way different than what i expected" or being amazed at how some really interesting scenes would be brought to life. But without the books Potter would have never been the phenomenon that it was. But Fantastic Beasts is just a spin off that has literally no connection to Potter at all and was simply a screenplay written by JK for the sole purpose to make WB money. It's not surprising this is underwhelming big time. WB failed to understand why these Potter films made so much money in the first place. Take away the desire to see these beloved books adapted on the big screen and take away the characters that made the films and books so great and you have very little for fans to be excited about. So imo it's making what it deserves. Im a huge HP fan....but for the love of god can we just let the series be? Cursed child...fantastic beasts....all ridiculous stories that nobody was clamouring for. 

 

HP should be left alone, and they still can remake the 8 movies in 10 years

 

I'm still glad about this movie, I like the background of the old NYC from the 20s, it's pretty cool. That's what appealed to me and why I want to see it, expanding the HP world beyond Britain.

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, water said:

sub 60 would happen based on precedent

 

I expect 65-75 m.

[CJohn]

22 pages without a single Friday number. Good job guys.

[boomboom234]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

A certain few think they can still compete with Disney and Universal. 

Universal really didn't warner beat them this year

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

22 pages without a single Friday number. Good job guys.

 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

22 pages without a single Friday number. Good job guys.

God help us all when actual numbers come in in a few hours.

 

I'll be watching the movie then though so...

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

 

Not France, but doing well in Germany, no numbers for UK, good for Australia it seems, here are the details:

 

The numbers are good in Germany and Australia but well below the recent Potters, not to mention DH2  which is why they used favorable comparisons to Strange instead

 

DH2 opened to almost $27m in Australia (though I think 5 instead of 4 day)  , Germany $28m over 4 day and the UK $38m

[Fullbuster]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

The numbers are good in Germany and Australia but well below the recent Potters, not to mention DH2  which is why they used favorable comparisons to Strange instead

 

DH2 opened to almost $27m in Australia (though I think 5 instead of 4 day)  , Germany $28m over 4 day and the UK $38m

 

In Europe it will be well below DH2 that's certain, and Europe is HP's main market so it will obviously be damaging, Asia won't be able to offset it...That would have been possible with Latin America helping but the ER is so bad that's not likely :/

[Jason]

25 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

At least it's back to 75% on RT, I hope it stays there! Do you really think Americans dragged it down for some reason? Or the British were exaggeratedly enthusiastic?

 

The average rating of the first three days of reviews (weekend + Monday), with all reviews: 7.3

Current average rating of all reviews: 6.9

Probability of this drop from 7.3 to 6.9 occurring as a result of random variation: about 10%

Average rating of the first three days of reviews, American reviews only: 6.9

Statistically significant difference between British and American reviews: Yes, P<0.05

 

Overall, I'm leaning towards the overrepresentation of British reviews in the first few days at the most likely explanation for the drop in Fantastic Beasts' average rating. There may be other factors at play in the drop in the RT score. It does seem like the later borderline reviews (3/5 or 2.5/4) were more likely to be rotten than the early ones, as well as the unrated reviews. But I haven't done any analysis for that.

[narniadis]

Yikes. I knew when I saw the French OD numbers that we were in for a bit of slower speed than the higher projections were throwing around but I figured that 10M last night was safe at least.

[TimmyRiggins]

DH2 did make 960 million OS, which is insane when you think about it  well less than TFA, but still. 

[grim22]

2ND Update, midday: Warner Bros. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned top grades last night according to ComScore’s PostTrak which polls throughout the weekend with the Harry Potter spinoff earning a whopping total positive 90% score with a very strong 74% of the audience responding that they’ll tell their friends about the movie.  Per rival estimates, not Warner Bros., Fantastic Beasts is flying to a $30M opening day including its $8.75M Thursday previews, for a mid-$70M range opening.

[AHepBurn]

15 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

A certain few think they can still compete with Disney and Universal. 

But Warners is out-earning Universal this year. Even Fox is out-earning Universal this year. And I haven't checked since late summer, but Warner has been out-earning all other studios this year from a per-dollar-spent basis. And with how well Sully, Accountant and Storks has done, I don't think that's really changed much.

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

The average rating of the first three days of reviews (weekend + Monday), with all reviews: 7.3

Current average rating of all reviews: 6.9

Probability of this drop from 7.3 to 6.9 occurring as a result of random variation: about 10%

Average rating of the first three days of reviews, American reviews only: 6.9

Statistically significant difference between British and American reviews: Yes, P<0.05

 

Overall, I'm leaning towards the overrepresentation of British reviews in the first few days at the most likely explanation for the drop in Fantastic Beasts' average rating. There may be other factors at play in the drop in the RT score. It does seem like the later borderline reviews (3/5 or 2.5/4) were more likely to be rotten than the early ones, as well as the unrated reviews. But I haven't done any analysis for that.

 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

The average rating of the first three days of reviews (weekend + Monday), with all reviews: 7.3

Current average rating of all reviews: 6.9

Probability of this drop from 7.3 to 6.9 occurring as a result of random variation: about 10%

Average rating of the first three days of reviews, American reviews only: 6.9

Statistically significant difference between British and American reviews: Yes, P<0.05

 

Overall, I'm leaning towards the overrepresentation of British reviews in the first few days at the most likely explanation for the drop in Fantastic Beasts' average rating. There may be other factors at play in the drop in the RT score. It does seem like the later borderline reviews (3/5 or 2.5/4) were more likely to be rotten than the early ones, as well as the unrated reviews. But I haven't done any analysis for that.

Compare it against Spectre and that difference will be even more extreme. 

[narniadis]

So does deadline buck the trend and have their mid-Friday estimate be right? Does it go down or does it go up? Should be an interesting next 24 hours.