Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[ban1o]

3 minutes ago, yjs said:

so you're supposed to automatically follow every post that you leave a reply on and get notified so you need to completely shut off by the general setting, but if the harm's already done you can turn it off on the each post by unfollowing it or just changing the notification setting.

Thank you!  

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

Rules Don't Apply, Allied and Bad Santa 2 all bombed super badly.

Poor Queen Bennett.

[MCKillswitch123]

As Allied is proving itself unreliable (and 85M in budget... let that sink in for a second), Arrival is still in less than 3000 screens.

 

Paramount are useless. They'll figure out a way to fuck up Fences too, somehow, put money on that.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

I think probably the 3-day weekend should be higher than DHD's $62M for Moana.

 

RTH probably has higher numbers either for tomorrow or Saturday.

Edited November 24, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Paramount are useless. They'll figure out a way to fuck up Fences too, somehow, put money on that.

[Valonqar]

46 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Not sure how they get that for Arrival but $10.3m for Allied which has a the same 2.1 Wed - minus Tues reviews.

 

Cause hold for a holdover in its third week and a new movie in its opening weekend are different on daily basis. I'm not good with 5 days numbers but what I know that happens on a regular 3 day weekend is that holdover always goes up on Saturday while new movie may not go up but if it does it won't go as much as a holdover. So if Allied starts with 2.1M and Arrival posted 2.1M in its third week, Arrival should overtake Allied cause it should hold better in upcoming days. Something like it. 

[SteveJaros]

56 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

At least it's budget is relatively smaller, and the film didn't have a huge behind the scenes production mess. Still, oh well.

 

 

At this point you have no choice of not convincing me that you're not anti-Disney. 

 

Well, not that I'd care to try to convince you, but .... did you miss the part where I said Moana is a very good movie?

 

I thought Dr. Strange was very good as well, both clearly better than Trolls and Fantastic Beasts, the other two major box office contenders released in the Christmas season so far.

 

As a movie-goer, I am generally a BIG fan of Disney. And I am a big movie goer, I've been to over 120 so far this year. IMO, the Marvel comic books movies and the Pixar (and now Disney) animated films are peerless. They just keep making good ones almost without end. It's almost embarrassing how much better the Marvel movies are than WB's rival DC movies.

 

But my box office feelings are a different matter: IMO, Warner's has the most consistent and reliable stable of box office franchises and properties, so I tend to lean towards them.

Edited November 24, 2016 by SteveJaros

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

Cause hold for a holdover in its third week and a new movie in its opening weekend are different on daily basis. I'm not good with 5 days numbers but what I know that happens on a regular 3 day weekend is that holdover always goes up on Saturday while new movie may not go up but if it does it won't go as much as a holdover. So if Allied starts with 2.1M and Arrival posted 2.1M in its third week, Arrival should overtake Allied cause it should hold better in upcoming days. Something like it. 

 

That usually holds more true for Friday openers.  Allied had previews on Tues, by Friday is should act more like a holdover than a new release.

[YM!]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Any chance of Allied saving face overseas? I could see something like 50/150

 

Still, that 85M budget tho...

 

Zemeckis hasn't had much luck with projects. I'm surprised the budget was $85m but I guess Pitt's salary is a big chunk of the budget

 

Even if it does $100m OS, it'll still lose money.

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

That usually holds more true for Friday openers.  Allied had previews on Tues, by Friday is should act more like a holdover than a new release.

 

I see. Thanks for explaing. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

8 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Well, not that I'd care to try to convince you, but .... did you miss the part where I said Moana is a very good movie?

 

I thought Dr. Strange was very good as well, both clearly better than Trolls and Fantastic Beasts, the other two major box office contenders released in the Christmas season so far.

 

As a movie-goer, I am generally a BIG fan of Disney. And I am a big movie goer, I've been to over 120 so far this year. IMO, the Marvel comic books movies and the Pixar (and now Disney) animated films are peerless. They just keep making good ones almost without end. It's almost embarrassing how much better the Marvel movies are than WB's rival DC movies.

 

But my box office feelings are a different matter: IMO, Warner's has the most consistent and reliable stable of box office franchises and properties, so I tend to lean towards them.

[La Binoche]

4). Arrival  (PAR), 2,442 theaters (+107)/ $2.1M Wed./ 3-day cume: $11.5M(-25%)/5-day: $15.8M/Total:$62.6M/ Wk 3

 

[La Binoche]

Wait how is that a 25% 3-day drop for Arrival? Deadline can never get it right, can they? 

[La Binoche]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Viola Davis is a good actress but boy does she look over the top in that Fences trailer. Let's bring it down a notch or ten. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving!

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

4). Arrival  (PAR), 2,442 theaters (+107)/ $2.1M Wed./ 3-day cume: $11.5M(-25%)/5-day: $15.8M/Total:$62.6M/ Wk 3

 

 

Being an actor is such a tough job. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Being an actor is such a tough job. 

Gotta feel jelly for Bale in that gif tho.

[RamblinRed]

19 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Well, not that I'd care to try to convince you, but .... did you miss the part where I said Moana is a very good movie?

 

I thought Dr. Strange was very good as well, both clearly better than Trolls and Fantastic Beasts, the other two major box office contenders released in the Christmas season so far.

 

As a movie-goer, I am generally a BIG fan of Disney. And I am a big movie goer, I've been to over 120 so far this year. IMO, the Marvel comic books movies and the Pixar (and now Disney) animated films are peerless. They just keep making good ones almost without end. It's almost embarrassing how much better the Marvel movies are than WB's rival DC movies.

 

But my box office feelings are a different matter: IMO, Warner's has the most consistent and reliable stable of box office franchises and properties, so I tend to lean towards them.

If you are betting on who will have the bigger movie almost always bet on Disney.

disney and WB are by far the 2 most successful Studios this decade so far (Disney was at 12.194B through last weekend WB 12.168) but their philosophies are very different.

WB releases more than twice as many films as Disney, but disney's films are much larger in DOM take (an avg of more than twice WB).

 

FB is doing well and looks headed to somewhere between 200-220MM DOM. Good total for an expansion of a universe without the primary characters. It feels similar to The Hobbit to me in that regard. It is going to probably get 85% of Potters audience but very little new audience. I would expect each sequel to make roughly the same to slightly less than the first.

 

Moana I thought 6 months ago would be a 150-200MM film, then as it got closer i was more in the 200-250 camp. If it opens to at least 85 then I think it's floor is going to be closer to 250 and could approach 300 if it has great legs - which we won't know for a couple of weeks. 

 

 

[La Binoche]

"Who, sorry?" Poor Huppert. This was a few years ago, maybe it will have changed by next year.