Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

He can bounce back. Ridley Scott has made three flops in a row for example, yet he still keeps getting major funding for example. Besides The Walk had a bit of a misfortune, in regards to its release date. 

 

Zemeckis has a strong track record that he'll continue to be hired, its a shame Spielberg is directing Ready Player One as Zemeckis would have been a solid choice but I'm sure it'll be a hit 

[kayumanggi]

ALLIED opened to an estimated $13.0M weekend, for $18.0M total since opening Wednesday. #Allied

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) November 27, 2016

[Fancyarcher]

13 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

warren beatty is quite the egoist so finding out no one gives a shit about him any more must be a real hit. seriously one of the most forgotten a-listers of his era. NO ONE from my generation gives a shit about Warren Beatty. Newman, Nicholson, Redford etc y'know still get some love at least.

 

 

 

To be fair, all of those actors you mentioned probably don't get much love from the current generation either. They just happened to have made more movies regarded as classics because they aren't complete control freaks like Beatty. 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Fancyarcher

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

 

Totally agree. We can only go off the normal trends we always do. Yet there is no reason for it not to take on a life of its own now. The movie is good enough. 

 

I'm not ruling out a run over $300 million yet. 

 

Nor should you from a statistical point of view (the bell curve would still show it as a possibility after all lol) but I am frustrated with the boom and bust cycle of this board and miss the days when thoughtful analysis was more the king of B.O. discussions (minus the fanboys of certain unnamed properties lol.)

 

History would show that 300 is under a 5% chance of happening but hey, we elected Donald Trump so anything is possible.

[Fancyarcher]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

Zemeckis has a strong track record that he'll continue to be hired, its a shame Spielberg is directing Ready Player One as Zemeckis would have been a solid choice but I'm sure it'll be a hit 

 

 

Ready Player One is perfect for Spielberg though. 

[yjs]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

 

What y'all in the "its the successor of Frozen" camp fail to remember is that Frozen was literally a freak of box office nature. Look at the chart on BOM for Thanksgiving Openings and the percentage of that in the total - we aren't being down on the film as much as being realistic about where it is headed competition or not. If it follows TS2 from here on out (doubtful as that film is over 17(!) years old) it wouldn't even make 250m and after having a higher opening day than Frozen it's already fallen 12m behind it's gross to date. Cultural phenomenons are just that and no one will deny that Moana is going to do well between now and the end of the year - just acknowledge the realistic outlook from some of us instead of writing us off as quick to Judge. 

 

And btw - this is not a surprise in my book since I have kept to under 250m for months just from looking at the calendar.

yeah, what I was saying is more like it's doing fine on its own merits and even if it does "only" $240M it's still quite decent and should be celebrated as just that. 

I think no one here truly believes that it will recreate the Frozen magic on the same $400M scale, more like just hoping and anticipating for it to show the similar tendency to develop better legs throughout its run with the good WOM, not expecting to fully blow out and have that insane X4.3 5-day multi. I think Tangled's x2.92 5-day multi is a good goal to match, especially with tough competitions later on.

[wildphantom]

Zemeckis, like Scott and Spielberg, is in an exclusive club that can pretty much make what they like. 

Once he decides he needs a big mainstream hit, he'll be able to take his pick and make it better than most would. One of the few master craftsman directors working today. 

[Jonwo]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

 

Ready Player One is perfect for Spielberg though. 

 

I agree, it'll be interesting how it fares because i suspect it's being eyed as a potential franchise 

[John Marston]

1	N	Moana	BV	$55,523,000	-	3,875	-	$14,329	$81,108,000	-	1
2	1	Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	WB	$45,100,000	-39.4%	4,144	-	$10,883	$156,228,123	$180	2
3	2	Doctor Strange	BV	$13,369,000	-24.7%	3,008	-686	$4,444	$205,093,475	$165	4
4	N	Allied	Par.	$13,000,000	-	3,160	-	$4,114	$18,022,000	$85	1
5	4	Arrival	Par.	$11,250,000	-7.3%	2,442	+107	$4,607	$62,387,300	$47	3
6	3	Trolls	Fox	$10,340,000	-40.7%	3,322	-623	$3,113	$135,136,662	$125	4
7	5	Almost Christmas	Uni.	$7,610,000	+4.9%	1,769	-610	$4,302	$36,688,865	$17	3
8	N	Bad Santa 2	BG	$6,106,658	-	2,920	-	$2,091	$9,031,191	$26	1
9	6	Hacksaw Ridge	LGF	$5,450,000	-18.3%	2,332	-551	$2,337	$52,248,382	-	4
10	7	The Edge of Seventeen	STX	$2,960,000	-37.7%	1,945	-	$1,522	$10,273,770	$9	2
11	15	Loving	Focus	$1,691,000	+94.5%	421	+284	$4,017	$4,069,771	-	4
12	N	Rules Don't Apply	Fox	$1,575,000	-	2,382	-	$661	$2,175,000	$25	1
13	11	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$1,300,000	-12.7%	618	-32	$2,104	$8,624,896	-	6
14	21	Manchester by the Sea	RAtt.	$1,250,294	+387.4%	48	+44	$26,048	$1,651,933	-	2
15	N	Dear Zindagi	Relbig.	$1,082,894	-	153	-	$7,078	$1,502,078	-	1
16	9	The Accountant	WB	$1,057,000	-51.0%	556	-867	$1,901	$83,240,144	$44	7
17	8	Bleed for This	ORF	$949,898	-59.9%	1,549	-	$613	$4,253,602	$6	2
18	18	Nocturnal Animals	Focus	$816,000	+65.6%	126	+89	$6,476	$1,669,834	-	2
19	13	Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	Par.	$370,000	-62.6%	345	-765	$1,072	$57,425,613	$60	6
20	12	Boo! A Madea Halloween	LGF	$353,000	-69.1%	339	-832	$1,041	$72,858,654	$20	6
21	26	The Eagle Huntress	SPC	$278,292	+52.8%	64	+25	$4,348	$923,643	-	4
22	10	Shut In	EC	$240,000	-85.1%	277	-1,729	$866	$6,712,128	-	3
23	19	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	Fox	$220,000	-41.5%	215	-249	$1,023	$86,145,793	$110	9
24	14	Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk	TriS	$210,000	-76.7%	1,176	-	$179	$1,593,724	-	3
25	31	Deepwater Horizon	LG/S	$179,000	+28.0%	187	-14	$957	$61,111,815	$110	9
26	16	Inferno	Sony	$165,000	-75.2%	165	-605	$1,000	$33,797,229	$75	5
27	N	Lion	Wein.	$128,368	-	4	-	$32,092	$128,368	-	1
28	33	Elle	SPC	$123,256	-2.5%	36	+12	$3,424	$404,756	-	3
29	22	A Man Called Ove	MBox	$110,296	-54.7%	81	-84	$1,362	$3,017,322	-	9
30	34	Pete's Dragon (2016)	BV	$99,000	-20.4%	127	-35	$780	$76,139,941	$65	16
31	30	Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life	LGF	$87,500	-43.1%	132	-75	$663	$19,958,291	$8.5	8
32	N	Miss Sloane	EC	$63,000	-	3	-	$21,000	$63,000	-	1
33	36	Finding Dory	BV	$42,000	-44.1%	78	-43	$538	$486,308,073	-	24
34	N	Seasons	MBox	$26,723	-	13	-	$2,056	$26,723	-	1
35	40	Queen of Katwe	BV	$26,000	-45.7%	30	-51	$867	$8,742,834	$15	10
36	51	Best Worst Thing That Ever Could Have Happened	Abr.	$17,670	-24.8%	3	+1	$5,890	$52,966	-	2
37	45	Harry & Snowman	FR	$12,000	-64.8%	12	-12	$1,000	$501,446	-	9
38	46	Certain Women	IFC	$10,450	-69.3%	19	-44	$550	$1,032,942	-	7
39	58	Daughters of the Dust (2016 re-release)	Cohen	$9,068	-16.4%	3	+2	$3,023	$21,692	-	2
40	53	Christine (2016)	Orch.	$8,667	-57.4%	23	-22	$377	$270,750	-	7
41	52	The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years	Abr.	$7,140	-67.5%	7	-5	$1,020	$2,882,251	-	11
42	N	Evolution	IFC	$6,927	-	3	-	$2,309	$6,927	-	1
43	62	American Pastoral	LGF	$3,100	-58.9%	14	-6	$221	$540,770	-	6
44	97	Greater	Ham	$776	-	1	-1	$776	$1,987,603	-	14

[Jake Gittes]

1	N	Moana	BV	$55,523,000	-	3,875	-	$14,329	$81,108,000	-	1
2	1	Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	WB	$45,100,000	-39.4%	4,144	-	$10,883	$156,228,123	$180	2
3	2	Doctor Strange	BV	$13,369,000	-24.7%	3,008	-686	$4,444	$205,093,475	$165	4
4	N	Allied	Par.	$13,000,000	-	3,160	-	$4,114	$18,022,000	$85	1
5	4	Arrival	Par.	$11,250,000	-7.3%	2,442	+107	$4,607	$62,387,300	$47	3
6	3	Trolls	Fox	$10,340,000	-40.7%	3,322	-623	$3,113	$135,136,662	$125	4
7	5	Almost Christmas	Uni.	$7,610,000	+4.9%	1,769	-610	$4,302	$36,688,865	$17	3
8	N	Bad Santa 2	BG	$6,106,658	-	2,920	-	$2,091	$9,031,191	$26	1
9	6	Hacksaw Ridge	LGF	$5,450,000	-18.3%	2,332	-551	$2,337	$52,248,382	-	4
10	7	The Edge of Seventeen	STX	$2,960,000	-37.7%	1,945	-	$1,522	$10,273,770	$9	2
11	15	Loving	Focus	$1,691,000	+94.5%	421	+284	$4,017	$4,069,771	-	4
12	N	Rules Don't Apply	Fox	$1,575,000	-	2,382	-	$661	$2,175,000	$25	1
13	11	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$1,300,000	-12.7%	618	-32	$2,104	$8,624,896	-	6
14	21	Manchester by the Sea	RAtt.	$1,250,294	+387.4%	48	+44	$26,048	$1,651,933	-	2
15	N	Dear Zindagi	Relbig.	$1,082,894	-	153	-	$7,078	$1,502,078	-	1
16	9	The Accountant	WB	$1,057,000	-51.0%	556	-867	$1,901	$83,240,144	$44	7
17	8	Bleed for This	ORF	$949,898	-59.9%	1,549	-	$613	$4,253,602	$6	2
18	18	Nocturnal Animals	Focus	$816,000	+65.6%	126	+89	$6,476	$1,669,834	-	2
19	13	Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	Par.	$370,000	-62.6%	345	-765	$1,072	$57,425,613	$60	6
20	12	Boo! A Madea Halloween	LGF	$353,000	-69.1%	339	-832	$1,041	$72,858,654	$20	6

[kayumanggi]

ARRIVAL makes an estimated $11.25M weekend, down 7.3%, for $62.38M total through three weekends. #Arrival

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) November 27, 2016

[Dingdong123]

So Disney is predicting a -41% drop for Moana this Sunday....which is kinda big compared to Tangled, TGD, and Frozen. Hope actuals are sub -40%.

[Fancyarcher]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I agree, it'll be interesting how it fares because i suspect it's being eyed as a potential franchise 

 

 

 

I don't think it'll do well enough to be a franchise, nor do I think he's approaching the film as such. 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Fancyarcher

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Nor should you from a statistical point of view (the bell curve would still show it as a possibility after all lol) but I am frustrated with the boom and bust cycle of this board and miss the days when thoughtful analysis was more the king of B.O. discussions (minus the fanboys of certain unnamed properties lol.)

 

History would show that 300 is under a 5% chance of happening but hey, we elected Donald Trump so anything is possible.

 

I'm frustrated with it too. 

I don't think any movie can be judged until weekend 2. Unless it's crashed and burned from Friday to Saturday in its opening frame. 

[TalismanRing]

This is just weird. They have it with a 24.6% Sun increase.  That has to be a typo

 

7

5

Almost Christmas

Uni.

$7,610,000

+4.9%

1,769

-610

$4,302

$36,688,865

$17

3

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Nnnngh.....that 3-Day OW for Moana....is $20M lower than Zootopia. 

[yjs]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Nnnngh.....that 3-Day OW for Moana....is $20M lower than Zootopia. 

to be fair tho, even Frozen had a lower 3-day with $68M

And Thanksgiving FSS tend to be lower, no?

Edited November 27, 2016 by yjs

[kayumanggi]

#FantasticBeasts Enjoys Big Debuts in China and Japan as it Crosses $300M Overseas https://t.co/nt1VIg3pv5

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) November 27, 2016

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

 

I'm frustrated with it too. 

I don't think any movie can be judged until weekend 2. Unless it's crashed and burned from Friday to Saturday in its opening frame. 

 

LOL except that proved us wrong this summer with Suicide Squad! One aspect of BO tracking I love is it's unpredictability

[DAJK]

I was the box/cash person for the matinee yesterday and am again today. Yesterday I didn't sell a single non-seniors ticket to Rules Don't Apply. Going to skew VERY old this one.