ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[filmlover]

La La Land making more in 200 theaters than Manchester by the Sea in over 6 times as many.

 

Remember when @Christmas Baumer said it wouldn't even make $30M in total?

[Gumby]

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

I usually don't root against movies but damn this bomb makes me so happy. Tweet about that, Chastain!

That #nastywomen marketing strategy worked gangbusters!

 

I never realized that Chastain was so harshly partisan.  Both her and the marketing basically said "F*** off" to half the country.

[Gumby]

Just now, filmlover said:

La La Land making more in 200 theaters than Manchester by the Sea in over 6 times as many.

 

Remember when @Christmas Baumer said it wouldn't even make $30M in total?

I am planning on seeing Manchester, but every article about it says how depressing it is.  Maybe that's discouraging people from going.

 

And maybe some of the info about Casey Affleck and the sexual assaults is getting out there more?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Gumby said:

That #nastywomen marketing strategy worked gangbusters!

 

I never realized that Chastain was so harshly partisan.  Both her and the marketing basically said "F*** off" to half the country.

Would you take issue if a man said the same things?

 

Between this and "no one will see La La Land because Emma Stone is too skinny," you're on a roll these days.

[RamblinRed]

R1 certainly isn't going to get the beautiful weather TFA got in December.

First a winter storm (though not a massive one) and then it gets cold.

Also remember the flip in schools being out. Because of how Christmas falls this year compared to last only 37% of schools are closed first Monday compared to 73% last year. So drops will be harder on Monday and Tuesday than last year (and likely Sunday evening as well). On the flip side it works in reverse in the NY. Kids in general will go back slightly later compared to last year so that could help R1's legs assuming the WOM is as strong as the early data would suggest.

 

I think i mentioned earlier  I really liked it, my son loved it and said we have to see it 3 times in theaters. Oh and we still have to see Moana so Disney should just go ahead and take my wallet now.

 

 

 

[kswiston]

Regarding east coast weather, it's supposed to be warming up all day today, so that might not be as big a deal come the evening shows. 

 

It's currently 32 in NYC, and is supposed to go up into the 40s overnight (with tomorrow approaching 60). Freezing rain is this morning. The rest of the weekend will be regular rain.

Edited December 17, 2016 by kswiston

[SteveJaros]

4 hours ago, Quigley said:

After the results of Friday, it is now very likely that Disney will finish the year with a domestic BO north of $3B, the first time ever in cinematic history that a studio has achieved this.

 

Right now, factoring in $72 million for R1 on Friday, Disney is at about $2.6B. How much more are their films going to earn in the next two weeks? Figure maybe $30 million more for Moana, so that would mean R1 has to be at about $430m on 12/31 for Disney to hit $3 Billion. 

Would love to see it but is it really possible? 

Edited December 17, 2016 by SteveJaros

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, SteveJaros said:

 

Right now, factoring in $72 million for R1 on Friday, Disney is at about $2.6B. How much more are their films going to earn in the next two weeks? Figure maybe $30 million more for Moana, so that would mean R1 has to be at about $370m for Disney to hit $3 Billion. 

Would love to see it but is it really possible? 

For god's shake aren't you tired? You were predicting 80m for RO and it must have already done it by now... Not to talk for the 40m for CB...

[La Binoche]

37 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

WTF is up with Manchester's increase? That's incredibly disappointing.

 

No it's not. It's expected. I told you last week that 8M was impossible and that it would do more like $4M. It's not a commercial movie. 

[TalismanRing]

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	$155,000,000	—	4,157	—	$37,287	$155,000,000	1	Disney
2	Moana	$13,500,000	-27%	3,587	-288	$3,764	$163,694,745	4	Disney
3	Office Christmas Party	$8,900,000	-47%	3,210	0	$2,773	$31,968,267	2	Paramount / DreamWorks
4	Collateral Beauty	$6,900,000	—	3,028	—	$2,279	$6,900,000	1	Warner Bros. / New Line
5	Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them	$5,100,000	-51%	3,036	-590	$1,680	$207,751,095	5	Warner Bros.
6	Manchester By the Sea	$4,300,000	37%	1,208	842	$3,560	$14,160,305	5	Roadside / Amazon
7	Arrival	$3,000,000	-46%	2,157	-958	$1,391	$86,693,367	6	Paramount
8	Doctor Strange	$2,200,000	-51%	1,930	-833	$1,140	$226,250,027	7	Disney
9	Trolls	$1,400,000	-54%	1,714	-1072	$817	$147,455,937	7	Fox / DreamWorks Animation
10	Nocturnal Animals	$1,300,000	-59%	1,246	-16	$1,043	$8,721,366	5	Focus
11	Allied	$1,200,000	-70%	1,625	-1393	$738	$38,408,917	4	Paramount
12	Hacksaw Ridge	$910,000	-60%	1,341	-936	$679	$62,808,104	7	Lionsgate
13	Miss Sloane	$425,000	-77%	1,463	-185	$290	$3,164,636	4	EuropaCorp

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	La La Land	$4,400,000	399%	200	195	$22,000	$5,640,166	2	Lionsgate / Summit
2	Almost Christmas	$580,000	-58%	720	-538	$806	$41,179,930	6	Universal

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Jackie	$550,000	12%	84	58	$6,548	$1,592,735	3	Fox Searchlight
2	Fences	$125,000	—	4	—	$31,250	$125,000	1	Paramount
3	Lion	$100,000	-41%	16	1	$6,250	$671,074	4	Weinstein Company
4	Shut In	$20,000	-9%	78	25	$256	$6,860,347	6	EuropaCorp Films

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya  4 minutes ago

#WillSmith had biggest career hit this yr w/ #SuicideSquad. Now #CollateralBeauty flops w/ weak $2.4M opening day going to puny $7M wknd.

 

 

 

Gitesh, it was Smiths highest grossing film, but not even close to his  biggest hit.

[terrestrial]

 

Edited December 17, 2016 by terrestrial

[La Binoche]

Miss Sloane will lose 95% of its screens next week

[SteveJaros]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

For god's shake aren't you tired? You were predicting 80m for RO and it must have already done it by now... Not to talk for the 40m for CB...

 

For God's sake, could you stick to the point? If my $3B math is wrong, then explain why? Sheesh! 

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, SteveJaros said:

 

For God's sake, could you stick to the point? If my $3B math is wrong, then explain why? Sheesh! 

I just can't believe that you really have such a lack of information. You must be a troll there is no other explanation so any conversation with you won't have any benefit..

[eXtacy]

71m seems good for 160m

 

29

42

49.5m +18%

39.5m -20%

 

160m

 

Hard to see where these sub 150m projections come from

[FlashMaster659]

From THR

 

Projections for the movie's weekend take vary wildly. Disney insiders are being conservative and suggesting $143 million-$150 million, while rivals believe Rogue One could approach $155 million.

[hw64]

3 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Hard to see where these sub 150m projections come from

 

Assumedly from models that are way more complicated than just spitting out two numbers at random.

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Hard to see where these sub 150m projections come from

weather, Sunday school night, being cautious (better under than over lets you look better in the long run, see Disney gets respect for being cautious and ... who was it that alswas gets mocked per going over?)

and...

[WrathOfHan]

This is how I see Collateral Beauty playing out:

 

Dec 16: 7M (4.8M weekdays, 11.8M Total)

Dec 23: 4.8M (4.2M weekdays, 20.8M Total)

Dec 30: 4.2M (1M weekdays, 26M Total)

Jan 6: 1M (27M Total)

 

The collapse after New Year's is going to be hilarious