ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, Dark 33Legend of the Sith said:

 

It would have been pretty humiliating for TDK to get beat by such a non-event type of film.

 

But remember my friend that TDK itself benefited from Ledge's death. Else 200-250 was very max it was making. LOL at the dark Flop. Less than the Iron Man ones nearly 400 million. #KalLogic #BeLogiKal

[redfirebird2008]

Where is Kal? I kinda miss him these days, especially now that @MovieMan89 is going full Palpatine on us.

[The Panda]

59 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

my dad loved looper!

 

My dad thought looper was boring.

 

My mother thought TFA was the exact same movie as ANH. (Then again, she doesn't believe in sequels, except she liked ESB)

Edited December 19, 2016 by ThePanda A Star Wars Story

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, ThePanda A Star Wars Story said:

 

My dad thought looper was boring.

 

My mother thought TFA was the exact same movie as ANH. (Then again, she doesn't believe in sequels, except she liked ESB)

 

Your mother is...correct.

[misafeco]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Where is Kal? I kinda miss him these days, especially now that @MovieMan89 is going full Palpatine on us.

Kal = @IronJimbo 

[terrestrial]

John Wick 2, Blade Runner 2049 = trailer are out

(also teasers for Twin Peak and Sun Records (Elvis) TV-series)

Michael Moore offers to pay the fines, if the lectoral.. vote... you know 

Zsa Zsa Gabor died

 

And Forbes has an article about FOX in 2017 looking for the older / 'adults' audience (I haven't read it)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/12/19/with-logan-alien-and-apes-sequels-fox-bets-on-blockbusters-for-adults/#2bd672f91bca

 

[NCsoft]

21 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I will give @MovieMan89 his share of laughter today since it dropped from the Sunday estimate, but the war is not over. We will get the last laugh.

This is actually quite odd don't you think? After RTH's last update on Sunday, I was almost certain that the weekend would go up to 157-158 or something.

 

[terrestrial]

Btw, me = mother of an adult... (sometimes I feel like lurking in the boards my son is writing...) do not think SW 7 is so similar to... like some write here 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, NCsoft said:

This is actually quite odd don't you think? After RTH's last update on Sunday, I was almost certain that the weekend would go up to 157-158 or something.

 

 

If I had to guess, maybe Sunday went up a bit but Friday and Saturday dropped quite a bit as well. Wouldn't be the first time we've seen something like that happen.

[terrestrial]

Maybe based on the other films up and downs over the weekend (incl. which age they skew) and later on, if they will be posted here, some conclusions how far the weather at which day played into the weekend per top theatre chart? I do not mean SW R1 alone...

 

 

Quote

Magnolia:
The Handmaiden	$18,848	-46%	23	$819	$1,814,981
The Eyes of My Mother	$2,855	-35%	9	$317	$24,425
Gimme Danger	$2,686	-57%	3	$895	$438,391
Harry Benson: Shoot First	$1,846	-62%	6	$308	$8,231
A Kind of Murder	$978		3	$326	$978
Peter and the Farm	$409	35%	3	$136	$17,059
Smith Global:
Believe	$12,477	-90%	42	$297	$874,184

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by terrestrial

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

21 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

But remember my friend that TDK itself benefited from Ledge's death. Else 200-250 was very max it was making. LOL at the dark Flop. Less than the Iron Man ones nearly 400 million. #KalLogic #BeLogiKal

 

Bet let's not forget it evens out.

 

Rogue One doesn't touch 200-250 without the benefits it reaped from Peter Cushing's death. Everybody knows it.

[Daxtreme]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-more-money-could-rogue-one-make/

 

 

"Of those similar box-office performances, the worst-performing of the batch — “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2” — made about $317 million in North America (in 2016 dollars) when all was said and done, while the best-performing — “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” — made around $478 million. So, that’s a pretty wide range of possibilities. The median movie made $396 million, not a bad haul at all. That’s almost enough to justify a sequel, and golly I wonder what’s going to happen with that Death Star and those stolen plans."

 

--------------------------------------------------------

 

Anyone who thinks Rogue One is going to end with $396M is setting themselves up for some legit surprises 

 

edit: Also, none of those movies opened in December  

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Daxtreme

[elcaballero]

6 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Also, none of those movies opened in December  

 

This.

 

Also, this quote: 

Quote

Making box-office predictions is a frivolous and quixotic venture, so we’re not going to try it. But benchmarking a movie and comparing it to similar ones? Hell, why not.

 

If you're going to do that, you at least have to do it right by considering a factor like... oh I don't know... the release date! Come on 538!

Edited December 19, 2016 by elcaballero

[Dbot1800]

5 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-more-money-could-rogue-one-make/

 

 

"Of those similar box-office performances, the worst-performing of the batch — “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2” — made about $317 million in North America (in 2016 dollars) when all was said and done, while the best-performing — “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” — made around $478 million. So, that’s a pretty wide range of possibilities. The median movie made $396 million, not a bad haul at all. That’s almost enough to justify a sequel, and golly I wonder what’s going to happen with that Death Star and those stolen plans."

 

--------------------------------------------------------

 

Anyone who thinks Rogue One is going to end with $396M is setting themselves up for some legit surprises 

 

edit: Also, none of those movies opened in December  

 

 

Everyone knows that statistical analysis only gets better when you leave out important variables.

[MCKillswitch123]

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	new	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	Walt Disney	$155,000,000		4,157	$37,287	$155,000,000	3
29	(30)	The Girl on the Train	Universal	$75,317,620	+92,207%	224	$336,239	$150,587,685	73
2	(1)	Moana	Walt Disney	$11,664,000	-37%	3,587	$3,252	$161,858,745	26
3	(2)	Office Christmas Party	Paramount Pictures	$8,450,000	-50%	3,210	$2,632	$31,518,267	10
4	new	Collateral Beauty	Warner Bros.	$7,000,000		3,528	$1,984	$7,000,000	3
5	(3)	Fantastic Beasts and Where …	Warner Bros.	$5,030,000	-52%	3,036	$1,657	$207,681,095	31
6	(7)	Manchester-by-the Sea	Roadside Attractions	$4,156,338	+31%	1,208	$3,441	$14,016,643	31
7	(15)	La La Land	Lionsgate	$4,020,000	+356%	200	$20,100	$5,260,166	10
8	(4)	Arrival	Paramount Pictures	$2,775,000	-50%	2,157	$1,287	$86,468,367	38
9	(5)	Doctor Strange	Walt Disney	$2,036,000	-55%	1,930	$1,055	$226,086,027	45
10	(8)	Nocturnal Animals	Focus Features	$1,390,856	-56%	1,246	$1,116	$8,812,222	31

  Holy shit at that TGOTT increase  

Edited December 19, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[baumer]

Serious question:

 

While I think I was wrong about R1 making 450 and having about a 3 multiplier, do you guys think that New moon and Eclipse and DH2 would have made 400 million+ if released at Christmas instead of when it did?

[elcaballero]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	new	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	Walt Disney	$155,000,000		4,157	$37,287	$155,000,000	3
29	(30)	The Girl on the Train	Universal	$75,317,620	+92,207%	224	$336,239	$150,587,685	73
2	(1)	Moana	Walt Disney	$11,664,000	-37%	3,587	$3,252	$161,858,745	26
3	(2)	Office Christmas Party	Paramount Pictures	$8,450,000	-50%	3,210	$2,632	$31,518,267	10
4	new	Collateral Beauty	Warner Bros.	$7,000,000		3,528	$1,984	$7,000,000	3
5	(3)	Fantastic Beasts and Where …	Warner Bros.	$5,030,000	-52%	3,036	$1,657	$207,681,095	31
6	(7)	Manchester-by-the Sea	Roadside Attractions	$4,156,338	+31%	1,208	$3,441	$14,016,643	31
7	(15)	La La Land	Lionsgate	$4,020,000	+356%	200	$20,100	$5,260,166	10
8	(4)	Arrival	Paramount Pictures	$2,775,000	-50%	2,157	$1,287	$86,468,367	38
9	(5)	Doctor Strange	Walt Disney	$2,036,000	-55%	1,930	$1,055	$226,086,027	45
10	(8)	Nocturnal Animals	Focus Features	$1,390,856	-56%	1,246	$1,116	$8,812,222	31

  Holy shit at that TGOTT increase  

I love the PTA.

Edited December 19, 2016 by elcaballero

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Serious question:

 

While I think I was wrong about R1 making 450 and having about a 3 multiplier, do you guys think that New moon and Eclipse and DH2 would have made 400 million+ if released at Christmas instead of when it did?

 

No but they would have opened smaller with better legs. Kinda like your theory on TDKR with the shooting. Deflated weekend but same overall total (better legs).

[terrestrial]

Quote

Focus Feature:
Nocturnal Animals	$1,407,088	-55%	1,246	$1,129	$8,828,454
Loving	$217,182	-66%	396	$548	$7,111,424
Universal:
Almost Christmas	$608,555	-56%	720	$845	$41,208,485
The Secret Life of Pets	$56,590	-36%	165	$343	$368,223,370
The Girl on the Train	$41,380	-49%	112	$369	$75,311,445
High Top
Incarnate	$184,105	-83%	318	$579	$4,723,514
STX:
The Edge of 17	$110,824	-82%	221	$501	$14,260,193

 

[kswiston]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Serious question:

 

While I think I was wrong about R1 making 450 and having about a 3 multiplier, do you guys think that New moon and Eclipse and DH2 would have made 400 million+ if released at Christmas instead of when it did?

 

Deathly hallows was close, so sure. 

 

I doubt it for twilight.