ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[a2k]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

 

How do you say "not an event" in german ?

 

 

 

 

Schurke Eins

https://translate.google.com/#auto/en/Schurke eins

[James]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

Excellent OW.

My guesses for the following days until end of Holidays

 

Monday 19M

Tuesday 22M

Wednesday 17M

Thursday 19M - around 232M

 

Friday 26M

Saturday 15M

Sunday 29M

Monday 31M - around 333M

 

Tuesday 22M

Wednesday 19M

Thursday 18M

 

Friday 22M

Saturday 17M

Sunday 19M

Monday 16M - around 466M

 

Is it too much? I have only followed 2011 patterns

 

 

Is this prediction taking into account the competition? Sing, AC and Passangers all opens on Wed. On @Rallax's chain, Sing has bigger presales than Moana did through the same point. And Why Him? is opening on Friday. The only competition TFA had was Daddy's Home.

 

On another note, very nice hold for FB. It increased a lot on Sunday from estimates. So an under 50% weekend drop. 

[misafeco]

2 minutes ago, James said:

Is this prediction taking into account the competition? Sing, AC and Passangers all opens on Wed. On @Rallax's chain, Sing has bigger presales than Moana did through the same point. And Why Him? is opening on Friday. The only competition TFA had was Daddy's Home.

 

On another note, very nice hold for FB. It increased a lot on Sunday from estimates. So an under 50% weekend drop. 

And Joy. And Concussion. And Point Break. Also the holdovers (Alvin/Sisters) barely dropped on Cristmas weekend.

[James]

Just now, misafeco said:

And Joy. And Concussion. And Point Break. Also the holdovers (Alvin/Sisters) barely dropped on Cristmas weekend.

Those were all flops. Sing alone should beat the combined OWs of all the openers TFA had. 

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, James said:

Those were all flops. Sing alone should beat the combined OWs of all the openers TFA had. 

 

 

 

Sing is a animation musical, it is not direct competition at all.

 

 

RO will stay on the premium screen and Imax all the way to mid Jan

 

[James]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

 

Sing is a animation musical, it is not direct competition at all.

 

 

RO will stay on the premium screen and Imax all the way to mid Jan

 

Sing is family competition. And SW is supposedly a 4-quadrant franchise. So they overlap quite a bit. 

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, James said:

Sing is family competition. And SW is supposedly a 4-quadrant franchise. So they overlap quite a bit. 

 

 

RO is Star Wars, and this is the domestic market.

 

Debate end 

 

 

 

 

RO is more adult skewing in the end compared to SW7.

 

 

RO has sucked all the air of the holidays and is the film getting the good buzz apart from Sing domestically.

 

SIng Passengers and other films will be actual competition overseas though. 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Lordmandeep

[EmpireCity]

Rogue One should finish with $155.7m and Moana had a nice recovery on Sunday and actually got to $12m.  

[terrestrial]

15 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yeah, I agree 100% on the difference between events and phenomenons. We have plenty of events each year. Many of them open really big and have shitty legs. The phenoms tend to be a combination of big opening and great legs. Rogue One has a chance to do that, but we have to see how it goes. At a bare minimum it's a big event based on the fact it seems headed for $500m at least.

 

I think if it is about BO it was $450m, but seems to shift to $475m in the nearer future. But I do not think that is a general rule of thumb, like that counts for all years of release or every type of genre (it is not).

If a film is not 4-quatsomething, I think ~ $400m is alo an event.

At least the top two or three of a year are at least the event of the year and so on.

 

IMHO even BO wise a film can be an event without being such kind of blockbusters

 

5 hours ago, The Futurist said:

How do you say "not an event" in german ?

 

4 hours ago, misafeco said:

Keine Event. 

 

Nearly right, it is kein Event

it is an 'it' word here = no 'e' at the end,

time (Zeit) is a she, then: keine Zeit

like if I have no time, someone asks me for... and only say in short: no time

but see CJohn's reaction the the non-its in his language and... a lot of what is in English an 'it' word is here female or male too

Edited December 19, 2016 by terrestrial

[Lordmandeep]

RO base gross seems to be 467 million right now

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

RO base gross seems to be 467 million right now

 

base is 400 and upper is 450 imo

[Marek the Jedi]

12 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Defend all you want. The music is very good, but the special effects were questionable IMHO. The lava planet sequence in particular looked like bad PlayStation graphics even in 2005 and has not held up well over the last 11 years. The acting and dialogue were complete shit by 2 of the most important characters in the film. Anakin's turn to the Dark Side was not handled in a believable manner (happened too fast). Overall better than the first two, but that is really not saying much. It's lipstick on a pig. 

 

well, bad playstation graphics? sure about it?
half of the shots were practical efects in lava sequence...

 

here is nice doc about SFX in EP3, lava stuff is from 15:00, but whole documentary is worth watching...

 

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Marek the Jedi

[bladels]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

base is 400 and upper is 450 imo

2.58x multiplier in December holidays?

Do you have basically no idea how box office works or just trolling?

[ShouldIBeHere]

39 minutes ago, misafeco said:

Keine Event. 

 

Kein Event.

 

[Hatebox]

Please let's not descend into defending the Prequels. They're just not worth it.

[Goffe]

6 minutes ago, Marek the Jedi said:

 

well, bad playstation graphics? sure about it?
half of the shots were practical efects in lava sequence...

 

here is nice doc about SFX in EP3, lava stuff is from 15:00, but whol documentary is worth watching...

 

where is the video?

[Goffe]

5 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Please let's not descend into defending the Prequels. They're just not worth it.

I agree, R1 is not worth anyone's time.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Goffe

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, bladels said:

2.58x multiplier in December holidays?

Do you have basically no idea how box office works or just trolling?

 

never seen a front loaded December film?

[baumer]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

base is 400 and upper is 450 imo

 

I think that ship has sailed. The word of mouth is too good on this and it will soar past 450 pretty easily I would imagine.

[Hatebox]

1 minute ago, Goffe said:

you're right, R1 is not worth anyone's time.

 

Hey, I'd be the first to agree with that. The world has gone mad thinking it's a great movie.