Wednesday Box Office - (Asgard pg 17) R1 about 15, Sing 11, Ass 4.5, Pass 4.1, Moana 2.2

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Well on the plus side, I got even more screeners the last few days, so I'm having my own holiday movie marathon trying to catch up on all of this. It's Hacksaw Ridge right now while I wrap X-mas presents (yay?), but I got sent La La Land today and Silence by Martin Scorsese. I admit I haven't even heard of it, I feel bad, but I am looking forward to seeing it. Despite not feeling the trailer at all and not feeling like it's my type of movie in many ways, I have hope La La Land could be a surprise I actually enjoy more than I think. Given I have extremely low expectations, it's possible. While I don't like musicals overall, I do love "industry movies" and La La Land is an industry movie. Plus, I do like / love a number of musicals including Chicago, Moulin Rouge, Singing in the Rain, An American in Paris, and even My Fair Lady is a good, well made movie despite not being a "Jonathan" movie. Plus my GF wants to see La La Land so why not, since it's here and it's free ha ha.

 

I agree though wow when I saw the schedule I thought, ok, Passengers sounds promising honestly. I want to see that. Two big stars. Assassins Creed trailers looked fun enough, I may still enjoy it, but yikes both movies are going to bomb compared to expectations. Next holiday season looks extremely crowded, I'm really glad Star Wars is sending a Tier 1 saga film against that slate rather than a spinoff.

I can say for certain you aren't going to like Silence.

[JonathanLB]

On another note (hehe Mattrek), when someone says it doesn't make sense for Rogue One to make $15-17M Wednesday, just playing devil's advocate here but how can people come and argue that Tuesday will be a solid increase because of discount Tuesday, and that's just what happens, but then come here after Tuesday is flat and say, "Well Wednesday will DEFINITELY have a BIG drop from Tuesday, because it always does." You were just wrong yesterday, why in such a hurry to line up to be wrong again? TFA didn't have a big increase Tuesday, it dropped, and it didn't have a big drop Wednesday, it made about the same amount of money as Tuesday. It's probably fair to assume that for a big movie like Rogue One, the day of the week doesn't make a shit of a difference if it's not a holiday or a weekend. It sure didn't with TFA. It's like you're perfectly ok trying to apply usual Tuesday bump rules, but then when that doesn't happen, there's no re-evaluation, it's immediately back to, "Well Wednesday always drops 25% so that will definitely 100% happen."

 

As Yoda would say, "So certain are you?" 

[BadAtGender]

If we're using Tintin as a comparison for Sing, that indicates a 6-day of $100-$120 million.

[JonathanLB]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I can say for certain you aren't going to like Silence.

 

So far you've been a good indicator of what I'm not going to like, so I can't argue with your prediction  But I think it's only fair to give each movie a chance and I try to do that with my awards screeners. Each year there are 1 or 2 I don't make it through and just stop playing but at least I tried. I'm voting only for "Best Director" and have initially 5 choices, then I pick between the nominated films, so if I know after 20 minutes I won't be voting for the movie as one of my 5 best, I don't NEED to watch the rest. I make a habit of finishing movies I start, but there are occasional exceptions especially if it means having the time to at least attempt watching all of the movies rather than completely watching only 75%. 

[baumer]

Don't be surprised to see passengers have terrific legs. I really enjoyed it and it's a terrific story and the two lead actors have a lot of chemistry. I'm not sure what the opening will be but this is one movie I definitely think we'll make it out to really good numbers.

[baumer]

And I know this is just anecdotal evidence but when I saw the kids coming out of sing today a lot of them were laughing and yelling and they look like they had a good time. Thing is definitely going to do well.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Don't be surprised to see passengers have terrific legs. I really enjoyed it and it's a terrific story and the two lead actors have a lot of chemistry. I'm not sure what the opening will be but this is one movie I definitely think we'll make it out to really good numbers.

Who knows?! The audience reviews on RT are very good.

[JonathanLB]

Is there anything kids don't like though? I mean seriously. My girlfriend's 6-year-old brother will watch literally any kiddie thing we put on and seems to like it all, no matter how horrible, cheesy, idiotic, and non-sensical it is. When I was a kid I thought Superman IV was a good movie. Superman IV is one of the worst movies ever made and a total disgrace to filmmaking lol but I don't think kids really know quality. 

 

It's like someone here said earlier, I doubt it will matter that Sing doesn't have 80 or 90 or 100% positive reviews. If kids want to see it based on seeing an ad, they'll beg their parents to see it. 

[The Panda]

I'm thinking Star Wars had a muted discount Tuesday similar to why TFA (and other big blockbusters like JW) had one last year.  Enough people were already going to see it anyways, so the discount just took off from the sales.

 

That will probably make sense as to why Wednesday's drop won't be too bad.

 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

Don't be surprised to see passengers have terrific legs. I really enjoyed it and it's a terrific story and the two lead actors have a lot of chemistry. I'm not sure what the opening will be but this is one movie I definitely think we'll make it out to really good numbers.

Passengers is good? The reviews are terrible but I thought the trailer looked good.

[The Futurist]

5 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

And I know this is just anecdotal evidence but when I saw the kids coming out of sing today a lot of them were laughing and yelling and they look like they had a good time. Thing is definitely going to do well.

 

[druv10]

15-17M for RO would be phenomenal.

 

15

16.65M

23.8M

13.6M

28.5M

31.5M

295M/ by Monday  65.9M/98M 3/4 days

 

17M

18.7M

26.8M

15.3M

32.1M

35.6M

335M/ by Monday 74.2M/110M 3/4day

[Lordmandeep]

I think the Wed number for RO make sense,

 

RO is doing really well for a Wednesday.

 

 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Passengers is good? The reviews are terrible but I thought the trailer looked good.

 

I know shocking isn't it? My opinion differs from a bunch of critics.

[The Panda]

59 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol @ pitch perfect 3. Couldn't think of a worse time on a worse schedule for it to release. They will absolutely move it if they have any brains. 

 

Why?  I think it'd do fine then, it's solid countermarketing to Episode 8.  It should be solid for around 120m or so with a Christmas release.

 

It's all of those others that probably need to move (besides maybe Jumanji as an alternative family appeal)

[JonathanLB]

4 minutes ago, ThePanda A Star Wars Story said:

I'm thinking Star Wars had a muted discount Tuesday similar to why TFA (and other big blockbusters like JW) had one last year.  Enough people were already going to see it anyways, so the discount just took off from the sales.

 

That will probably make sense as to why Wednesday's drop won't be too bad.

 

 

That's what I think anyway. I think people figure ok, Tuesday is my best day to see this movie, my buddy can see it that day, I'm going to do it. That was decided a while ago. Or Wednesday, etc. Of my 3 closest real life friends, I don't think any of them have seen Rogue One yet. They all watched TFA. I think they all saw TFA twice or three times, though I could be wrong, I'm only sure that one friend saw it three times, one two times, and the other at least once (with me). They all will see Rogue One, they're all interested, but since one is a police officer he's been hit with a bunch of OT, and my biotech friend is on vacation to Disney World until this Friday, no idea what the excuse is for my third friend. Just being lame, I guess. The point is I'm sure they'll see it when they actually have a free day, just like many people. It could be a Wednesday or it could be a Friday. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

 

I know shocking isn't it? My opinion differs from a bunch of critics.

I don't trust them any more anyway.

[junkshop36]

1 hour ago, jandrew said:

 

Okay, I wasn't aware of that. But still, a big reason, if not the reason, video game movies fail is because they're two different mediums that tell their stories two different ways. Everyone wants a GTA movie, but condensing a GTA storyline into movie form wouldn't do it justice. Same with Call of Duty. Modern Warfare 2 is one of my favorite games ever, and it would make a bomb ass movie - if it was stretched out into maybe 4 films. And I wouldn't want 4 movies of that, I'd rather just play the game.

 

So if you're gonna make an Assassin's Creed movie, or any video game movie, what do you need to do? Simplify the story and make it it's own, rather than try to literally adapt the game for the screen and cram in every single plot point into 2 hours of film, which is what everyone does and why each of these movies fail. Uncharted would've been the same way. I'm not holding my breathe with Tomb Raider until I see otherwise. There's too much focus on making an "epic" rather than just making a good movie.

 

People are gonna go see AC for the 1400's asskicking action anyway, so even if the Source Code nonsense is in the game, you can easily cut it all out and give 110 minutes of Medieval Spanish parkour asskicking. Mold it for the screen and add in some new, more relatable elements to attract a bigger audience. It's not hard.

 

My son played all the games and he told me that the whole apple of eden story line wasn't very good in the game either lol. 

 

He thinks they should have just kept the movie about the war between the Templars and the Assassins. You still would have had the present day stuff but it would have been a much easier story to sell. 

[Lordmandeep]

Anything that has any decent appeal to males should not open near a SW film 

[JonathanLB]

@druv10 Your post has $335M didn't you mean $435M at the end? Just noticed that.

 

@Christmas Baumer Nothing wrong with that. You shouldn't feel like you have to agree with the critics. You liked the movie, it's a good movie for you, nothing wrong with that. I would like to check it out myself at some point. They're both very fun actors to watch, though I was surprised by the critical drubbing. I expected at worse 50% but, meh, who knows.