Wednesday Box Office - (Asgard pg 17) R1 about 15, Sing 11, Ass 4.5, Pass 4.1, Moana 2.2

[baumer]

I really don't understand sometimes what critics are looking for. Send me the story and passengers was interesting. The love story was engaging and you rooted for these two people to make it. The set design is exceptional the special effects are incredible there's good tension in it there's some tear-jerking moments it was just a really good movie and it did remind me of Titanic in many ways.

[Mattrek]

10 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

On another note (hehe Mattrek), when someone says it doesn't make sense for Rogue One to make $15-17M Wednesday, just playing devil's advocate here but how can people come and argue that Tuesday will be a solid increase because of discount Tuesday, and that's just what happens, but then come here after Tuesday is flat and say, "Well Wednesday will DEFINITELY have a BIG drop from Tuesday, because it always does." You were just wrong yesterday, why in such a hurry to line up to be wrong again? TFA didn't have a big increase Tuesday, it dropped, and it didn't have a big drop Wednesday, it made about the same amount of money as Tuesday. It's probably fair to assume that for a big movie like Rogue One, the day of the week doesn't make a shit of a difference if it's not a holiday or a weekend. It sure didn't with TFA. It's like you're perfectly ok trying to apply usual Tuesday bump rules, but then when that doesn't happen, there's no re-evaluation, it's immediately back to, "Well Wednesday always drops 25% so that will definitely 100% happen."

 

As Yoda would say, "So certain are you?" 

 

Weekdays do tend to make a difference, but I agree with the rest. BOT users for the most part hate to admit they're wrong, so they just move on to the next point to avoid it. You haven't been here long enough, but I'm sure most remember my insane clubs I made. Knight and Day over 200m, Rio over 200m, The Imitation Game over Slumdog Millionaire and King's Speech, Grown Ups 2 over 175m to name a few. I've had only 3 winning clubs out of dozens, I've been wrong on most and admitted so no matter how painful (Knight and Day over 200m was particularly bad).

 

Back to the topic at hand I think that the movie will do what it's going to do. We don't have an accurate past year we can compare it to. The only thing we can all agree on is we really don't know. It's going to surprise us some days I think compared to what we expected.

[elcaballero]

10 minutes ago, ThePanda A Star Wars Story said:

I'm thinking Star Wars had a muted discount Tuesday similar to why TFA (and other big blockbusters like JW) had one last year.  Enough people were already going to see it anyways, so the discount just took off from the sales.

 

That will probably make sense as to why Wednesday's drop won't be too bad.

 

You're probably right. I think this trend will only apply to event films. 

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

@druv10 Your post has $335M didn't you mean $435M at the end? Just noticed that.

 

@Christmas Baumer Nothing wrong with that. You shouldn't feel like you have to agree with the critics. You liked the movie, it's a good movie for you, nothing wrong with that. I would like to check it out myself at some point. They're both very fun actors to watch, though I was surprised by the critical drubbing. I expected at worse 50% but, meh, who knows.

No, if it reaches 435M by Monday, Avatar potentially would be the new target.

[redfirebird2008]

12 minutes ago, ThePanda A Star Wars Story said:

I'm thinking Star Wars had a muted discount Tuesday similar to why TFA (and other big blockbusters like JW) had one last year.  Enough people were already going to see it anyways, so the discount just took off from the sales.

 

That will probably make sense as to why Wednesday's drop won't be too bad.

 

 

Part of it is the IMAX effect. Those tickets are not discounted and they make up a pretty healthy percentage of the gross.

[Mattrek]

12 minutes ago, ThePanda A Star Wars Story said:

I'm thinking Star Wars had a muted discount Tuesday similar to why TFA (and other big blockbusters like JW) had one last year.  Enough people were already going to see it anyways, so the discount just took off from the sales.

 

That will probably make sense as to why Wednesday's drop won't be too bad.

 

 

That's actually a really good theory.

[baumer]

I said the same thing about TFA last year @Mattrek

[cannastop]

23 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

And I know this is just anecdotal evidence but when I saw the kids coming out of sing today a lot of them were laughing and yelling and they look like they had a good time. Thing is definitely going to do well.

Oh, just like Moana.

[Mattrek]

6 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I said the same thing about TFA last year @Mattrek

 

Fine, you both can share credit. Sheesh. You try to compliment someone these days.

[baumer]

I wonder what Sing will do on Christmas Day 

[Mattrek]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

I wonder what Sing will do on Christmas Day 

 

A lot.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I'm going to the theater with my Dad. We're going to see either Sing or Passengers, we haven't decided yet. We already saw Rogue One, which we loved!

[Mattrek]

20 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

I'm going to the theater with my Dad. We're going to see either Sing or Passengers, we haven't decided yet. We already saw Rogue One, which we loved!

 

These are the words you never say on a movie forum. You have been warned. Bah too much effort. *insert hold onto your butts gif*

Edited December 22, 2016 by Mattrek

[JonathanLB]

16 minutes ago, druv10 said:

No, if it reaches 435M by Monday, Avatar potentially would be the new target.

 

No I mean you literally wrote $295M by the end of this coming Monday then $335M by the end of the next. You meant $435M I assume. Your math wouldn't make it $40M over 7 days

[Lordmandeep]

Passengers seems like a Netflix watch 

[Porthos]

Gotta say, I'm not completely surprised at the projection for the Wed number for R1.  Today is ALMOST like a Friday in many respects (it certainly seemed like one traffic wise as I was traveling around town).  Thought to myself with the nearly flat Tuesday, there wouldn't be nearly as harsh of a Wed drop as we've been seeing recently.

 

Still only a projection, but I won't be shocked if it is indeed flat or has a small drop from yesterday.

[yjs]

37 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

If we're using Tintin as a comparison for Sing, that indicates a 6-day of $100-$120 million.

BOM says Tintin's first day gross was $2.3M but shows its total on its first day as $5.6M, maybe they had previews? 

anyway, if that $3.3M was from previews its 6-day total of $23.1M would be revised as $19.8M, and a x8.6 OD/6-day multi, $86M~$103M for Sing. still compelling numbers.

 

[yjs]

6 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

I'm going to the theater with my Dad. We're going to see either Sing or Passengers, we haven't decided yet. We already saw Rogue One, which we loved!

maybe you can see R1 again? haha

[yjs]

24 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I really don't understand sometimes what critics are looking for. Send me the story and passengers was interesting. The love story was engaging and you rooted for these two people to make it. The set design is exceptional the special effects are incredible there's good tension in it there's some tear-jerking moments it was just a really good movie and it did remind me of Titanic in many ways.

I was curious, how did they play out 

Spoiler

the Stockholm syndrome bits in the plot that was controversial? 

 

[JonathanLB]

I'm sure (?) people here remember the TFA predictions last year during the week? Let me re-enact some of the basic doubters debates:

 

Monday, $40.1M: "Wow, I guess so many sold out showings over the weekend had a massive spillover effect from people who were turned away over the weekend" (YEAH, that makes total sense, not like we have calculated there is enough capacity in the United States to support like a $700M OW if every seat was full, but whatever) or "Because of such a huge Monday, which burned off whatever demand was left over the weekend from the die-hard fans, it should be a pretty steep drop Tuesday." 

 

Tuesday, $37.3M: "Wow well I guess it held up pretty well, still no discount Tuesday bump, will probably fall hard on Wednesday then as the demand continues to burn off."

 

Wednesday, INCREASES to $38M: "..."

 

That pretty much sums up what I saw here. So no offense but your average Wednesday drop data probably means about as much as a fart in a hurricane.