DAJK Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 BP category looks dreadful this year for movies that can appeal to the GA at all, which is why I think either Dunkirk or Get Out is locked for a nom. I kind of hope Disaster Artist sneaks in, but I'm more rooting for Franco and Screenplay noms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, DAJK said: BP category looks dreadful this year for movies that can appeal to the GA at all, which is why I think either Dunkirk or Get Out is locked for a nom. I kind of hope Disaster Artist sneaks in, but I'm more rooting for Franco and Screenplay noms. I'm sure Darkest Hour will be plenty popular with the @Squadron Leader Tele crowd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I've complied a list, with the average rating of all the BP's nominees on RT for each year since BP's expansion, in 5 years out of 8, the academy picked the movie with highest RT AVERAGE RATING as their best picture. My theory is, many voters don't know how to rank the nominees, therefore, they are just go for what critics picked based on the score on metacritic, RT or whatever 2009: Avatar(75%) Up(87%) Inglourious Basterds(78%) District 9(78%) Up in the Air(81%) Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire(78%) The Hurt Locker(85%) An Education(79%) A Serious Man(79%) 2010: Toy Story 3(89%) Inception(81%) True Grit(83%) The King's Speech(86%) Black Swan(82%) The Social Network(90%) The Fighter(78%) The Kid are Alright(79%) 127 Hours(83%) Winter's Bone(83%) 2011: The Help(70%) The Descendants(81%) War Horse(70%) Moneyball(80%) Hugo(83%) Midnight in Paris(78%) The Artist(88%) The Tree of Life(78%) 2012: Lincoln(80%) Django Unchained(80%) Les Miserables (69%) Argo(84%) Silver Linings Playbook(82%) Life of Pi(79%) Zero Dark Thirty(86%) Beasts of the Southern Wild(82%) Amour(87%) 2013: Gravity(90%) American Hustle(82%) The Wolf of Wall Street(78%) Captain Phillips(83%)12 Years a Slave(90%) Philomena(78%) Dallas Buyers Club(78%) Her(85%) Nebraska(80%) 2014: American Sniper(69%) The Imitation Game(77%) The Grand Budapest Hotel(84%) Selma(87%)Birdman(85%) The Theory of Everything(73%) Boyhood(92%) Whiplash(86%) 2015: The Martian(78%) The Revenant(79%) Mad Max: Fury Road(86%) Bridge of Spies(77%) The Big Short(78%)Spotlight(88%) Brooklyn(84%) Room(84%) 2016: Hidden Figures(76%) La La Land(86%) Arrival(84%) Hacksaw Ridge(72%) Fences(77%) Lion(73%) Manchester by the Sea(89%)Moonlight (90%) Hell or High Water(85%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 3 hours ago, titanic2187 said: I've complied a list, with the average rating of all the BP's nominees on RT for each year since BP's expansion, in 5 years out of 8, the academy picked the movie with highest RT AVERAGE RATING as their best picture. My theory is, many voters don't know how to rank the nominees, therefore, they are just go for what critics picked based on the score on metacritic, RT or whatever 2009: Avatar(75%) Up(87%) Inglourious Basterds(78%) District 9(78%) Up in the Air(81%) Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire(78%) The Hurt Locker(85%) An Education(79%) A Serious Man(79%) 2010: Toy Story 3(89%) Inception(81%) True Grit(83%) The King's Speech(86%) Black Swan(82%) The Social Network(90%) The Fighter(78%) The Kid are Alright(79%) 127 Hours(83%) Winter's Bone(83%) 2011: The Help(70%) The Descendants(81%) War Horse(70%) Moneyball(80%) Hugo(83%) Midnight in Paris(78%) The Artist(88%) The Tree of Life(78%) 2012: Lincoln(80%) Django Unchained(80%) Les Miserables (69%) Argo(84%) Silver Linings Playbook(82%) Life of Pi(79%) Zero Dark Thirty(86%) Beasts of the Southern Wild(82%) Amour(87%) 2013: Gravity(90%) American Hustle(82%) The Wolf of Wall Street(78%) Captain Phillips(83%)12 Years a Slave(90%) Philomena(78%) Dallas Buyers Club(78%) Her(85%) Nebraska(80%) 2014: American Sniper(69%) The Imitation Game(77%) The Grand Budapest Hotel(84%) Selma(87%)Birdman(85%) The Theory of Everything(73%) Boyhood(92%) Whiplash(86%) 2015: The Martian(78%) The Revenant(79%) Mad Max: Fury Road(86%) Bridge of Spies(77%) The Big Short(78%)Spotlight(88%) Brooklyn(84%) Room(84%) 2016: Hidden Figures(76%) La La Land(86%) Arrival(84%) Hacksaw Ridge(72%) Fences(77%) Lion(73%) Manchester by the Sea(89%)Moonlight (90%) Hell or High Water(85%) I dont buy it, maybe they pay attention with critic festivals (which correlate with average rating), but I think it's more likely the Academy just has similar (yet not identical) tastes as the critics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 5 hours ago, titanic2187 said: I've complied a list, with the average rating of all the BP's nominees on RT for each year since BP's expansion, in 5 years out of 8, the academy picked the movie with highest RT AVERAGE RATING as their best picture. My theory is, many voters don't know how to rank the nominees, therefore, they are just go for what critics picked based on the score on metacritic, RT or whatever 2009: Avatar(75%) Up(87%) Inglourious Basterds(78%) District 9(78%) Up in the Air(81%) Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire(78%) The Hurt Locker(85%) An Education(79%) A Serious Man(79%) 2010: Toy Story 3(89%) Inception(81%) True Grit(83%) The King's Speech(86%) Black Swan(82%) The Social Network(90%) The Fighter(78%) The Kid are Alright(79%) 127 Hours(83%) Winter's Bone(83%) 2011: The Help(70%) The Descendants(81%) War Horse(70%) Moneyball(80%) Hugo(83%) Midnight in Paris(78%) The Artist(88%) The Tree of Life(78%) 2012: Lincoln(80%) Django Unchained(80%) Les Miserables (69%) Argo(84%) Silver Linings Playbook(82%) Life of Pi(79%) Zero Dark Thirty(86%) Beasts of the Southern Wild(82%) Amour(87%) 2013: Gravity(90%) American Hustle(82%) The Wolf of Wall Street(78%) Captain Phillips(83%)12 Years a Slave(90%) Philomena(78%) Dallas Buyers Club(78%) Her(85%) Nebraska(80%) 2014: American Sniper(69%) The Imitation Game(77%) The Grand Budapest Hotel(84%) Selma(87%)Birdman(85%) The Theory of Everything(73%) Boyhood(92%) Whiplash(86%) 2015: The Martian(78%) The Revenant(79%) Mad Max: Fury Road(86%) Bridge of Spies(77%) The Big Short(78%)Spotlight(88%) Brooklyn(84%) Room(84%) 2016: Hidden Figures(76%) La La Land(86%) Arrival(84%) Hacksaw Ridge(72%) Fences(77%) Lion(73%) Manchester by the Sea(89%)Moonlight (90%) Hell or High Water(85%) My initial thought: "why are some movies missing" *remembers that the two movies missing are The Blind Side and Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close* My thoughts after I remembered: "As much as I liked The Blind Side, I can see why this was intentional." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Spirit Award nominations: http://variety.com/2017/film/awards/spirit-awards-nominations-2018-call-me-by-your-name-1202620662/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 hour ago, filmlover said: Spirit Award nominations: http://variety.com/2017/film/awards/spirit-awards-nominations-2018-call-me-by-your-name-1202620662/ The fact that Three billboard missed BP nomination here makes me question its "frontrunner" status, especially considering how accurate the spirits awards are in the past few years at predicting BP winner, if you're eligible but not even nominated, that's problematic. Also, judging from that list, it looks like Get out will win this thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, NCsoft said: The fact that Three billboard missed BP nomination here makes me question its "frontrunner" status, especially considering how accurate the spirits awards are in the past few years at predicting BP winner, if you're eligible but not even nominated, that's problematic. Also, judging from that list, it looks like Get out will win this thing. The Shape of Water had it even worse and got completely shut out here. This is undoubtedly going to hurt its chances at the Oscars, and Hawkins might be out. Three Billboards should be fine IMO because McDormand, Rockwell, and McDonagh in screenplay all got nominated. Edited November 22, 2017 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Some take-aways from the Spirit Award nominees: Award mentions for Killing of a Sacred Deer is a good end to a great year for Dunkirk star Barry Keoghan. This isn't the first time I've seen Harris Dickinson (Beach Rats) in an independent list. These multiple notices might be good for his career. Good Time is looking to be a film commonly embraced by many independent awards organizations. Robert Pattinson has a good chance of tiptoeing through the somewhat shallow Best Actor ranks. Pertaining to Good Time, I also had a 'I called it' moment when finding Taliah Lennice Webster in Best Supporting Female. In one of the trailers, she's the one with the line 'oh my god', and her delivery of that line conveyed a lot of things at once. She really only had to be in the trailer for that one moment to let you know she was gonna have a legitimately professional performance. Quest is the only documentary nominated twice. I think that has to mean something. A Best Director nod for A Ciambra is a step up for the film's chance in Foreign Language. This helps Call Me By Your Name in the same way the Gotham Awards helped Get Out: 'most total nominations'. If Daniel Kaluuya keeps getting independent award notices like this, his chances will certainly grow. I think an editing nomination for I, Tonya is something to keep an eye out for. The Florida Project got some of the better notices (Best Feature, Best Director), but its absent in other categories might be a little cause for concern. I think that's everything I can infer. They put together a good list overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The Shape of Water had it even worse and got completely shut out here. This is undoubtedly going to hurt its chances at the Oscars, and Hawkins might be out. Three Billboards should be fine IMO because McDormand, Rockwell, and McDonagh in screenplay all got nominated. I do not think a complete snub for such an independent awards thing is cause for concern in regards to The Shape of Water. This awards thing may have a budget limit. Or, the members' taste is a bit more grounded overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Just now, slambros said: I do not think a complete snub for such an independent awards thing is cause for concern in regards to The Shape of Water. This awards thing may have a budget limit. Or, the members' taste is a bit more grounded overall. Nope, this was eligible; the budget is under 20M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 36 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: The Shape of Water had it even worse and got completely shut out here. This is undoubtedly going to hurt its chances at the Oscars, and Hawkins might be out. Three Billboards should be fine IMO because McDormand, Rockwell, and McDonagh in screenplay all got nominated. The Independent Spirit Awards don't really mean anything (just last year, Ben Foster got in over Jeff Bridges, and won too). Now, the Golden Globes continue these snubs, then yeah, trouble is on the horizon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: Nope, this was eligible; the budget is under 20M. This is strange for sure. But the way Lady Bird and Three Billboards performed, I'm confident that The Shape of Water will be able to strike a chord with the hardcore filmgoers come release time. I wouldn't say Sally Hawkins is out of the race just because an independent awards group chose not to nominate it. I mean, the film is a critical favorite, so it's bound to split audiences down the middle somewhat. To me, there are elements that The Shape of Water has that will strike a great chord with Academy voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I'm actually kind of worried that The Shape of Water might be a bit too...Guillermo del Toro...to really go all the way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I think it's kinda weird get out is up for all the indie movie awards just cos it's cheap. No way indie spirits woulda let that movie in 20 years ago back when their nominees were actually interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 8 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: I think it's kinda weird get out is up for all the indie movie awards just cos it's cheap. No way indie spirits woulda let that movie in 20 years ago back when their nominees were actually interesting. It's more legit though than the like of Black Swan, Silver Linings, Alexander Payne movies etc who were pretty much smaller studio movies with cast and crew full of famous people with established careers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Call Me By Your Name sounds like an incredible film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Joel M said: It's more legit though than the like of Black Swan, Silver Linings, Alexander Payne movies etc who were pretty much smaller studio movies with cast and crew full of famous people with established careers. I dunno I just don't like any of it. I just think it's evidence of the indie spiris becoming more conformist to make sure their awarding the same movies everyone else is awarding. Same with the BAFTAs I think it's a shame so many awards shows feel like they're trying to predict the oscars. To me this is more ridiculous than get out being a comedy at the globes. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Lady Bird Call Me By Your Name Get Out Three Billboards in Ebbings, Missouri Dunkirk The Post The Disaster Artist I, Tonya Phantom Thread Alt #1: Wonder Alt #2: Darkest Hour Mod edit:remove spoiler tag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 (edited) So...who’s excited for Call Me by Your Name? Edited November 22, 2017 by That One Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
