Best Picture predictions-2017!

[The Panda]

23 hours ago, 4815162342 said:

 

With much bigger bonafides than Get Out and bigger nomination presence. Silence of the Lambs won the Big 5 and was nominated for Sound and Editing.

 

Realistically, Get Out is not gonna come close in nom count. BP is gonna happen, Original Screenplay probably, Director maybe, and a long long shot for DK in Actor.

I have Kaluuya in the 5th slot over Hanks, I'd also say Get Out is the OS frontrunner right now.  It's winning precursors there fairly consistently.

 

I'd also say Get Out has a decent shot at a BP win, based on the info rn.

[NCsoft]

At this specific point of the race (early critics awards rolling out) I think this is seriously the messiest year that I've ever seen, we have 7 films wining critics best picture now (Phantom Thread, Mudbound, Get out, CMBYN, The Post, The Florida Project and Lady Bird) with no frontrunner whatsoever, and another three deemed early front-runner status that haven't win yet (Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards).

 

[titanic2187]

 

out of 10 Golden Globe BP's nom in 2015, 6 entered the oscar(4 drama, 2 comedies) + 2 more, brooklyn and bridge of spies

out of 10 Golden Globe BP's nom in 2015, 6 too, entered oscar( 5 drama, a comedy)+ 3 more, hidden, fences and arrival

 

if 2017 follows suit, 6 BP would enter oscar race to me, all 5 drams and lady bird, sorry GO, your snub in screenplay in Golden Globe looks alarming.....still hope a genre film could break into oscar!! 

 

 

[PenguinHyphy]

11 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

 

out of 10 Golden Globe BP's nom in 2015, 6 entered the oscar(4 drama, 2 comedies) + 2 more, brooklyn and bridge of spies

out of 10 Golden Globe BP's nom in 2015, 6 too, entered oscar( 5 drama, a comedy)+ 3 more, hidden, fences and arrival

 

if 2017 follows suit, 6 BP would enter oscar race to me, all 5 drams and lady bird, sorry GO, your snub in screenplay in Golden Globe looks alarming.....still hope a genre film could break into oscar!! 

 

 

Steve Jobs won there, and I was not even nominated at the Oscars for its screenplay. Arrival was not even nominated there, and it won the adapted award at the WGAs. Moonlight being moved from original at the Oscars is the only reason why Arrival is not the adapted winner that year. Precious was not nominated at the Globes in screenplay, but it won the Oscar. The Globes' screenplay award really mean shit at the Oscars. The Globes overall are just bribes. 

Edited December 12, 2017 by PenguinHyphy

[filmlover]

I'm thinking that the top 8 is gonna be our line-up. Phantom Thread and I, Tonya are on the outside looking in. The Big Sick is dead, and Darkest Hour is starting to feel dead too aside from Oldman.

[titanic2187]

9 hours ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Steve Jobs won there, and I was not even nominated at the Oscars for its screenplay. Arrival was not even nominated there, and it won the adapted award at the WGAs. Moonlight being moved from original at the Oscars is the only reason why Arrival is not the adapted winner that year. Precious was not nominated at the Globes in screenplay, but it won the Oscar. The Globes' screenplay award really mean shit at the Oscars. The Globes overall are just bribes. 

I was so surprised they snub arrival last year except for amy adams for leading actress, but the oscar "fixed" the snub by giving it full force at many categories, ironically, except for amy adam

[FantasticBeasts]

Am I the only one thinking that Get Out doesn't deserve to win either way? It is good but nothing exceptional. I mean, I haven't even watched most of the contenders but it doesn't feel like a Best Picture worthy movie. Comparing it to Silence of the Lambs is close to a blasphemy.

[Mrwick]

2 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Am I the only one thinking that Get Out doesn't deserve to win either way? It is good but nothing exceptional. I mean, I haven't even watched most of the contenders but it doesn't feel like a Best Picture worthy movie. Comparing it to Silence of the Lambs is close to a blasphemy.

Of course it doesn't, its getting recognition otherwise black people will complain, throw the racist card and threaten to boycott again. I wouldnt care too much if it got a nom because i enjoyed it, however it is just a good little horror/psychological thriller, its gross should be its reward.

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Mrwick said:

Of course it doesn't, its getting recognition otherwise black people will complain, throw the racist card and threaten to boycott again.

[The Panda]

52 minutes ago, Mrwick said:

Of course it doesn't, its getting recognition otherwise black people will complain, throw the racist card and threaten to boycott again. I wouldnt care too much if it got a nom because i enjoyed it, however it is just a good little horror/psychological thriller, its gross should be its reward.

[Mrwick]

What im saying is true, you dont have to believe it. I dont remember Babadook or It follows getting any oscar buzz and they are all just as acclaimed...

[titanic2187]

3B at box office started to slow down despite expansion, that lengthy name should be take the blame, lady bird didn't go any higher too, both, front runner for oscar best picture,  likely won't pass $50m in total

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

3B at box office started to slow down despite expansion, that lengthy name should be take the blame, lady bird didn't go any higher too, both, front runner for oscar best picture,  likely won't pass $50m in total

To be fair, they had to expand now to avoid the onslaught of Star Wars and the rest of the holiday releases. They will get a second chance to have audiences discover them in January when they'll actually be able to reap the benefits.

[titanic2187]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, they had to expand now to avoid the onslaught of Star Wars and the rest of the holiday releases. They will get a second chance to have audiences discover them in January when they'll actually be able to reap the benefits.

January used to a great month for oscar-nominated picture to gain their 2nd life, like life of pi, argo, gravity, slumdog and etc, but now, even maze runner, a mid-blockbuster too has join the field, with the academy push back the nomination announcement to end of January, the crop of nominees couldn't longer to capitalize MLK weekend like those in 2012/2013/2014/2015 

[filmlover]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

January used to a great month for oscar-nominated picture to gain their 2nd life, like life of pi, argo, gravity, slumdog and etc, but now, even maze runner, a mid-blockbuster too has join the field, with the academy push back the nomination announcement to end of January, the crop of nominees couldn't longer to capitalize MLK weekend like those in 2012/2013/2014/2015 

January 2018 looks really fuckin' dead (pretty sure Paddington 2 and Maze Runner 3 are gonna be the only films to make waves of any kind, and those don't even conflict with the typical Oscar crowd) so I don't think it'll be much of an issue for the Oscar fare to find an audience.

[SLAM!]

44 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

January used to a great month for oscar-nominated picture to gain their 2nd life, like life of pi, argo, gravity, slumdog and etc, but now, even maze runner, a mid-blockbuster too has join the field, with the academy push back the nomination announcement to end of January, the crop of nominees couldn't longer to capitalize MLK weekend like those in 2012/2013/2014/2015 

 

It might not have been what it once was, but January is still a viable month for Oscar films. Just last year, Hidden Figures did phenomenally well at the box office; in its wide expansion, it just barely dethroned the 4th weekend of Rogue One to become the the #1 film of the weekend. It went on to gross way past  $100 million and become the 14th highest grossing film of the 2016 domestic box office among- that puts it among the high-grossing blockbusters of the year. Another smash hit Oscar film was La La Land, which also grossed way past $100 million and secured 19th place on the 2016 domestic chart. Lion was also a respectable hit in January, as it was able to gross four times its budget at the domestic box office alone. These grosses were achieved in spite of the hold-over blockbusters Rogue One and Sing, and in spite of surprise-hit Split grossing phenomenally. We live in an age where film enthusiasts and casual moviegoers alike can access information about all of the movies at the tap of a finger, so I wholeheartedly believe that some of these Oscar films can use the notoriety from guaranteed word-of-mouth and Golden Globe nominations/wins to surprise find audiences and reach extremely high gross levels in spite of blockbuster holdovers and January audience-friendly affairs. And by the time Oscar nominees are announced, it'll be icing on the cake.

[Mrwick]

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/the-golden-globes-have-a-problem-with-women-directors/

Edited December 12, 2017 by Mrwick

[SLAM!]

27 minutes ago, Mrwick said:

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/the-golden-globes-have-a-problem-with-women-directors/

 

 

It's unfortunate. Gerwig, Jenkins, and Rees are all great, and they would've been welcome nominations. Of course, I would rather have the inclusion of directorial work with merit over the inclusion of mediocre directorial work that is by someone that isn't a white male. But some of these female directors had the necessary merit. Jordan Peele had the necessary merit as well (for the film to work the way it did, it had to be seamless).

 

I don't know. Some people will want to blame 'paid for' nominations. I think, with something like the Golden Globes, bribery can only go so far before a wall of integrity blocks its way.

 

I have a taste in film. You have a taste in film. And the HFPA also has a taste in film. Blade Runner and The Big Sick were completely shut out because, this year, they had a different taste in film. And just like we are allowed to have our own taste in film, awards voters should also be allowed to have a taste in film as well.

 

I don't know about you, but it shouldn't be hard to understand why the directorial work of The Shape of Water, The Post, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, and All the Money in the World would impress and appeal to the HFPA. Those films made Best Director certainly not for the sole reason that they are directed by men.

 

This isn't the end-all-be-all anyway. I'm sure Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele will make Best Director at the oscars.

 

And if anyone argues that the Globe's director selection is all-white, I hope they take into consideration Guillermo del Toro's ethnicity and understand why their argument isn't really all that valid. All men? Yes, that's valid. All white? This time- and thankfully this time- it isn't valid.

 

I'm posting this at a time when I have yet to see the majority of 2017's awards-worthy films. Hopefully I see enough to decide for myself which directors truly deserved a nod this year and which ones didn't.

[robertman2]

So... TLJ as a dark horse contender?

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

So... TLJ as a dark horse contender?

No.