filmlover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 hours ago, Joel M said: Downsizing reception would be a problem for someone else but not Payne. They love him and he's gonna be a priority for oscar voters above all the blockbusters that allegedly have a shot (even though outside of Get Out, they don't). What can really hurt his chances is the movie flat out bombing ala Steve Jobs since it has a very big budget. And even then he can still score another screenplay nomination. I think Downsizing will be fine at the box office. Damon is a consistent draw more often than not, and it'll be one of the few movies strictly targeting adults over the Christmas/New Year's frame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Dench is getting very good notices for Victoria and Abdul but the rest of the film isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Dench is getting very good notices for Victoria and Abdul but the rest of the film isn't. It's usually hard to count out Dench (especially with a role like this, which is practically AMPAS catnip) but I don't think she's gonna have the momentum necessary by the end of the year to make what's looking to be a very competitive Best Actress field with a blah film (that probably won't make much at the box office) from September. Thinking she'll get in the Comedy Globe category and BAFTA and that's it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Based on the reviews we have Hostiles seems like a legit contender IF it gets a 2017 release. Getting raves. Bale especially should have a chance to get in with a relatively thin Best Actor field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Based on the reviews we have Hostiles seems like a legit contender IF it gets a 2017 release. Getting raves. Bale especially should have a chance to get in with a relatively thin Best Actor field. It still doesn't have a distributor, but I imagine it gets released this year because he has Backseat next year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 cool if hostiles is good. i've wanted to like scott cooper for a while. clearly a talent in a directorial sense who i've thought writes the most basic screenplays imaginable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 These are probably going to fail embarrassingly: Call Me By Your Name The Current War Dunkirk The Florida Project Get Out Last Flag Flying The Post The Shape of Water Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said: These are probably going to fail embarrassingly: Call Me By Your Name The Current War Dunkirk The Florida Project Get Out Last Flag Flying The Post The Shape of Water Apparently the Current War absolutely blows, but who knows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 the last ten best pictures all premiered at either cannes/telluride/venice. and Shape of Water is the only premiere from those fests that gives me winner vibes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hostiles sounds great. Curious if anyone will pick it up for a release at the end of the year. Not sure who will pick it up though, maybe one of the major studios will since most of the smaller ones either have their plates full or are too poor to acquire anything (*cough*Weinstein*cough*). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, filmlover said: Hostiles sounds great. Curious if anyone will pick it up for a release at the end of the year. Not sure who will pick it up though, maybe one of the major studios will since most of the smaller ones either have their plates full or are too poor to acquire anything (*cough*Weinstein*cough*). maybe Annapurna if they recognize Detroit is DOA as an awards player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Shape of Water is very well positioned, hitting all three major fall festivals and then doing a platform to wide rollout in December right as awards season peaks. I'm still thinking Dunkirk and Call Me By Your Name are just as likely, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 i buy nolan as a directing winner way more than i buy dunkirk as a picture winner since those two awards have become more separate in recent years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are shaping up to be even more of a cluster than usual. At least Supporting Actor won't be as bland as last year. Actor is a question mark - Oldman is safe, but we've seen nothing from Hanks/Washington/DDL, we don't know if Hostiles is dropping this year, and we don't know if Dafoe is going actor or supporting actor. Right now I'd go Oldman/Phoenix/Bale/Dafoe/Hanks to be safe, but not picking DDL and Washington in prestige pics feels dumb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 i'm not 100% confident the PTA is opening this year and if it does i can totally see it getting Silence'd. these guys make movies that really need to sit with you so it's a bad idea to rush them out to release just before the deadline. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress are shaping up to be even more of a cluster than usual. At least Supporting Actor won't be as bland as last year. Actor is a question mark - Oldman is safe, but we've seen nothing from Hanks/Washington/DDL, we don't know if Hostiles is dropping this year, and we don't know if Dafoe is going actor or supporting actor. Right now I'd go Oldman/Phoenix/Bale/Dafoe/Hanks to be safe, but not picking DDL and Washington in prestige pics feels dumb. Is it confirmed Phoenix's movie is coming out this year? My current predictions for Actor (assuming Hostiles isn't coming out this year) are Chalamet/Cranston/DDL/Oldman/Washington. At this point it seems hopeless betting on Hanks finally getting nominated again until it happens. Bale's movie may or not come out this year. I don't think we're gonna end up with a line-up of all veterans though, and Chalamet seems like a strong contender since his movie is looking to be a very serious contender and he's clearly on the verge of a big breakthrough (he's also in Hostiles and Lady Bird). Edited September 3, 2017 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Fuck, I forgot about Chalamet. I'd put him in over Hanks/Phoenix/Bale. Isn't Carrell the lead in Last Flag Flying? I know that Cranston is playing the lead from the original, but the trailer and the billing make it look like Carell is leading this one. I think they're heading towards a vote split, which is why I had neither in. I think Fish could make it in for BSA (it's about damn time). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Fuck, I forgot about Chalamet. I'd put him in over Hanks/Phoenix/Bale. Isn't Carrell the lead in Last Flag Flying? I know that Cranston is playing the lead from the original, but the trailer and the billing make it look like Carell is leading this one. I think they're heading towards a vote split, which is why I had neither in. I think Fish could make it in for BSA (it's about damn time). Fishburne already is an Oscar nominee though (although it's easy to forget since What's Love Got to Do with It was so long ago). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 i'd like to go back in time to follow old oscar races so i can maybe start to understand why Laurence Fishburne wasn't nominated for supporting actor for Boyz 'n the Hood back in '91. especially since if you go back and look at who was nominated that year. that's gotta be one of the worst line ups that category has ever seen. they even got the wrong barton fink performance. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 46 minutes ago, filmlover said: Is it confirmed Phoenix's movie is coming out this year? It doesn't have a release date or an American trailer and is not even playing in Toronto for some reason. Even if it did get released this year I suspect it'd be too brutal for the Academy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
